We close out Week 12 with a primetime matchup in Southern California for the second consecutive evening. And this time, we get the coveted Harbaugh Bowl! John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens flock West to meet Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers for a potential playoff preview as both teams enter this game with seven wins on the season.

There are plenty of narratives and storylines to follow so let’s take a look at the latest Ravens vs. Chargers DFS picks as part of the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Ravens vs. Chargers Game Preview

The Ravens have been a simple team to understand this year. The offense is very good. The defense is very bad. The defense lost Mike MacDonald to the Seattle Seahawks as he became the organization’s new head coach, and they had some personnel turnover. So the secondary has had its struggles and they now sit at 7-4. However, with the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday, a win breathes some life into their chances of winning the AFC North.

The offense has not been a problem. Sure, last week’s 16-point effort against the Steel Curtain isn’t what we were expecting but the Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league and it was a tough road matchup. But Lamar Jackson is still playing at a high level and the run game has been dominant with the addition of Derrick Henry.

The Chargers have been quite the surprise in the AFC West. They’re winners of four straight games and while everyone expected them be a heavy run offense (which they have), since their Bye week, they have a pass rate over expected (PROE) of nearly +6% and now Justin Herbert gets a matchup against one of the softest secondaries in the NFL.

But the big story will be Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh coaching against each other in the NFL for the third time. John has gotten the better part of Jim as he’s 2-0 in their previous meetings, including one of those wins coming in the Super Bowl. But Jim Harbaugh has the Bolts clicking as a legitimate contender so we should see a good game this evening.

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Chargers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-148)
    • Chargers (+124)
  • Game Total: Over 50.5 (-110) / Under 50.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-146)
    • Chargers (+124)
  • Game Total: Over 50.5 (-110) / Under 50.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Ravens vs. Chargers MNF, November 25th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for this matchup. 

 

Ravens vs. Chargers Notable Injuries & Inactives

The offense is rather healthy for the Baltimore Ravens, but a lot of injuries come from the defense. They’ll be missing some depth pieces in the secondary as Arthur Maulet and Sanoussi Kane have already been ruled out. It also doesn’t help their pass rush that Travis Jones and Roquan Smith are questionable ahead of tonight’s game. Smith is battling a hamstring injury and didn’t practice at all last week while Jones did practice in a limited fashion on Saturday with an ankle injury. The lone injury to monitor on the offensive side is to Tyler Linderbaum, the team’s center, who I’m expecting to play through his back injury.

Similarly, the Los Angeles Chargers also have some injuries on defense to monitor. But the big one is on offense with Ladd McConkey who has emerged as the Chargers best pass catching option. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury but was a limited participant in practice on Friday and Saturday.

Hayden Hurst and Denzel Perryman have been ruled out for this game. Bud Dupree and Khalil Mack are also questionable on defense, but they were both limited participants in practice last week so there’s a good chance they suit up.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 11/25

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,500

Anytime Lamar Jackson is on a Showdown slate we give him consideration at MVP/Captain. In nine games this year he’s rushed for 40+ yards. At the minimum, that’s equivalent to one pass touchdown in DFS and in his last five games he has 15 touchdown passes with just two turnovers. 

Last week’s performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers is an outlier. And yes, the Chargers also boast a good defense in their own right. I can’t figure out why the Chargers D/ST is cheaper than Baltimore’s. Perhaps it’s due to the matchup, but the Chargers defense is legitimate. Prior to Week 11’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chargers held six straight opponents to 17 or fewer points.

But I’m not expecting another dud from Baltimore. The Bolts allowed the Bengals to score 27 points last week and we know the Ravens can run up the score as well. When they do, Lamar Jackson is usually returning 22+ fantasy points on DraftKings, which he’s done nine times already this year.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $16,000

I am probably taking a similar approach with Henry that I took with Saquon Barkley for last night’s NFL DFS Showdown slate when the Philadelphia Eagles visited the Los Angeles Rams. Barkley has his smash spots, similar to King Henry but also has some middling games as well. For that reason, I preferred Barkley at Captain/MVP or I didn’t play him at all in tournaments. I think the read was accurate because you 100% needed Barkley at MVP/Captain because he had a monstrous game with over 300 total yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Henry’s kind of in a similar boat. He’s the second-most expensive player on DraftKings, but the most expensive on FanDuel. The touchdown equity is huge. He’s literally scored a touchdown in every single game this season so that elevates his floor. But in three of his last four games, he’s rushed for less than 75 yards, and with just a dozen targets on the season he isn’t heavily featured in the passing game.

The Chargers are prone to giving up some production on the ground so that bodes well for Henry, but I am expecting a moderate dose of Justice Hill in this game as he’s slowly been getting more work. So similar to last night, I prefer to play Henry at Captain in case he pulls of his sixth 28+ fantasy point effort. Otherwise, I’d consider leaving him out of my lineup.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

Herbert’s been fantastic of late and I anticipate that he’ll get even better over the last month-and-a-half of the 2024 NFL season. As Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports has pointed out frequently of late, Justin Herbert has been running and scrambling more, with Greg Roman even dialing up more designed runs for his quarterback.

Herbert’s scramble rate was just 2.0% prior to the team’s Bye week and that was likely because Herbert was nursing a foot injury in training camp. But since then, his scramble rate has tripled and it culminated in him rushing for 65 yards last week. In three of his last four games, he’s run for 30+ yards.

The Chargers have also been throwing more as he’s averaged 31 pass attempts per game since the team’s Bye week. Through their first four weeks they averaged just 22.75 pass attempts per game. His fumble last week was actually his first turnover since Week 2! Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and Joe Burrow were all able to throw for 300 yards on this defense and I’m expecting Herbert to have his best game of the season Monday night.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

McConkey has been outstanding of late and with the Chargers giving more emphasis to the aerial attack, we like Ladd’s outlook as he touts a 24% target per route run rate (TPRR) on the season and 2.44 yards per route run (YPRR).

The Ravens are bottom five in yards per attempt at 7.72 which bodes well for both Herbert and McConkey. If the Ravens opt to go for more man coverage, that’s also goo news for the rookie receiver. Per Dataroma, Ladd is averaging 4.00 YPRR against man coverage (second only to Justin Jefferson) and he has a 28% TPRR.

The Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers and fifth-most fantasy points to slot receivers, which is where Ladd will get most of his work. They’ve allowed 17 touchdowns to opposing receivers and we haven’t even made it to December yet. It’s wheels up for all of the Chargers’ receivers but I’m particularly bullish on McConkey tonight.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

Similar to Derrick Henry, you can maybe play him at Captain/MVP or don’t play him at all. If you read my NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for last Sunday’s game, you’ll know I was rather bearish on Dobbins, as has been the case since the team’s Bye week.

Dobbins found the end zone twice last week and now has eight touchdowns on the year. Per Fantasy Points Data, Dobbins is 29th among running backs with 3.68 yards per carry (YPC) since Week 3 and despite the shortcomings of the Ravens secondary, they’re pretty good against the run. The Ravens are allowing just 77.5 rushing yards per game. Dobbins also doesn’t force many missed tackles and the Ravens allow just 1.70 yards after contact per attempt which is the fewest in the NFL.

There is the revenge game factor here for both Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The price is difficult to pay for Dobbins. Personally, I’ll be underweight because I don’t buy into the efficiency. But he’s found the end zone five times in his last four games (43.7% of his fantasy production in that span). If he does that again Monday night, he’ll be making me look like an idiot. 

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $10,500

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

I’m putting these two together because they’re arguably the same play but with a big pricing discrepancy. The pricing gap is largely due to the fact that Johnston has six touchdowns on the season including one in each of his last three games.

But the matchup is elite for both these players. The preferred Charger to target is Ladd McConkey but there’s a $1,600 difference between Ladd and Johnston on DraftKings. If you can’t get to Ladd, then we chase the ceiling with these two players. As noted previously, the Ravens have allowed the most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season.

We also noted how Justin Herbert has been throwing more since the team’s Bye week at nearly 31 pass attempts per game. But there’s perhaps more volume to go around in this game as opposing offenses against the Ravens attempt 39.5 pass attempts per game, the most in the NFL.

Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

Massive pricing error on Dissly over on FanDuel. Dissly’s a rather polarizing player for this slate because some think the production is rather unsustainable. I was high on him a week ago and I’m still high on him heading into this matchup.

My outlook on him could even spike if Roquan Smith is ruled out for this game as Hayden Hurst has already been declared out which does help Dissly’s stock. And we just mentioned how teams throw on the Ravens 39.5 times per game which leads the league. He has at least six targets in four of his last five games while going for 80+ receiving yards in two of those matchups. Baltimore has been pretty weak against the tight end position of late and I think it could be another productive game for Dissly.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

It probably came as a surprise that Zay Flowers didn’t make the write-up but he’s in the player pool at the bottom. The Ravens move him all over the field. He can line up in the slot and out wide. It’s part of the reason some don’t understand how he beat Pat Surtain a few weeks back, but Surtain didn’t shadow him in the slot as much.

Alas, we find ourselves in a pickle. Pay up for Zay or take the discount with Bateman. I prefer the savings and to target McConkey or Johnston who are priced under Flowers. Per Dataroma (@ffdataroma on X), the Chargers utilize that pesky 2-High coverage shell which infuriated analysts earlier in the year because it prevents big scoring plays. Either way, Flowers has a 25% TPRR and 2.29 YPRR on the year against all coverages. Against 2-High specifically, those metrics drop to 21% TPRR and 1.35 YPRR.

By comparison for Bateman, he only sees 16% TPRR and 1.82 YPRR against every coverage. But against 2-High his efficiency improves to 19% TPRR and 2.79 YPRR. 

Now if you’re asking me who is the better floor/ceiling play, it’s still Zay Flowers. He’s scored over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings five times this year and he’s collected the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings four times. But we get a $4,200 discount with Bateman, and Flowers has exactly six targets in each of his last three games. You do need to take some stands in this game. I won’t be fading Flowers completely, but I will be heavier on Bateman and targeting the Chargers’ receivers in the mid-tier.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

You can really just pick your poison here. Both are affordable and you’re hoping if you play either that they can just find their way into the end zone. Likely returned from injury last week to catch four-of-five targets for 75 yards but he did lose a fumble.

Likely sees a slight boost in efficiency against zone and 2-High coverage shells which the Chargers mostly rely on. You probably get more touchdown equity with Andrews despite the matchup catering to Likely. I’ll be mixing in shares of both with some trepidation but I’m aiming to be higher on Likely.

Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hill came in with more ownership than the two players we just mentioned. At this price tag you’re probably content with maybe seven or eight fantasy points which Hill has provided six times already this season.

We do see him get more involved in competitive/negative game scripts. His efficiency is minimal and against a tough Chargers defense, if the Ravens can’t move the ball through the air that may bring in Hill for more dump off passes around the line of scrimmage. He has five games this year with at least three receptions and he was involved last week in the ugly game against Pittsburgh. He is a player I’m aiming on being overweight with tonight.

You do have to build him into lineups accounting for game script, but in this matchup with such a high total, it’s very possible he cracks the optimal as a value play. Opposing running backs have caught 20 passes against the Chargers in their last four games entering Week 12.

Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

He’s been more efficient than J.K. Dobbins over the last two games, but the volume goes more towards Dobbins. But I do like the price tag on both sites for Edwards. It’s a revenge game for both players but the Ravens are tough to run on. But regardless, at $2,800 on DraftKings you’re getting a player who had 10 touches two weeks ago and six last week. I’m hoping he’s healthier given the extra day of rest since their last game. But I’m hoping for some additional carries and maybe some goal line work.

I will note that Diontae Johnson is in play, but the Ravens have used him horribly since trading for him. They’ve come outright and said that he’s behind Rashod Bateman on the depth chart. Johnson’s salary is tolerable on DraftKings at $3,000 but incredibly difficult to pay for on FanDuel at $10,000. But if this turns into a shootout, I’m hoping by now he has enough familiarity with the playbook that he can make some noise but I’m not incredibly confident in that.

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Chargers DFS Player Pool, 11/25

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-