We close out Week 10 with yet another inter-conference matchup as the Miami Dolphins head West to visit the surging Los Angeles Rams. Tua Tagovailoa has returned to the Miami Dolphins. 

Unfortunately, despite putting up 27 points in back-to-back games, the team has lost both contests at well to move to 2-6 on the season. 

 

 

 

The Rams were previously beaten up having been without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but they’ve rattled off three straight wins to get to 4-4 on the season, and they’re firmly in contention for the NFC West title. Here is the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Dolphins vs. Rams Game Preview

As mentioned, the Dolphins and Rams are healthier for this game than they’ve been all season. But the Dolphins find themselves in a particular spot. At full strength, the offense is up tempo, efficient, and usually blowing opponents out of the water. 

But Tua Tagovailoa sustained another concussion earlier in the season and that cost him time. In his place, the Dolphins used some scotch tape and glue to keep the offense composed but it didn’t quite work. And since Tua’s returned the team has lost back-to-back games and they now sit at the bottom of the AFC East.

The Dolphins seemingly need to run the table to have any shot at the playoffs this year. There have already been rumors that Chris Grier could lose his job just based on the team having no depth to replace star players due to injury. All in all, the team is underperforming. Take away Tagovailoa and you still have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert on offense. A capable backup should still win games with this offense.

But on the other side, things are looking up for the Rams as they’re trending in the right direction. They have their two best wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and the team has won three straight games. Nacua was ejected last week for throwing a punch and he’s been popping up on the injury report more of late. But all in all, both receivers command volume. 

Above all else, neither defense is particularly good so it’s possible we get a fun and exciting game to close out Week 10. Let’s dive into the rest of the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook.

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Rams MNF Odds At DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Rams -2.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Dolphins (+114)
    • Rams (-135)
  • Game Total: Over 49 (-108) / Under 49 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Rams -2.5 (-114)
  • Money Line:
    • Dolphins (+120)
    • Rams (-142)
  • Game Total: Over 48.5 (-115) / Under 48.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Dolphins vs. Rams MNF, November 11th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for this matchup.

Dolphins vs. Rams Notable Injuries & Inactives

The biggest injury we’re monitoring ahead of Monday Night Football is Tyreek Hill. He’s questionable with a wrist injury and there’s still uncertainty and it sounds like he’s 50/50 to play. I think he ultimately plays but my opinion doesn’t matter one bit. The Dolphins need him as they essentially need to run the table to make the playoffs. The only player that has been ruled out by Miami is offensive lineman, Austin Jackson.

The Rams come in looking pretty healthy as they aim to maintain their winning streak. Offensive tackle, Rob Havenstein, has been ruled out which does impact the quality of the O-line but all in all this offense should keep humming right along as they’ve done the last few weeks.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 11/11

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $15,500

Kyren had his streak of 10 straight regular season games with a touchdown snapped last week against the Seattle Seahawks. But at the end of the day, he still attracts volume and that does correlate well to touchdown equity.

Williams has four straight games with at least 20 carries. It would be six straight if he registered just one more carry against the Chicago Bears over a month ago. In this matchup he should once again see 20+ touches and we value his involvement in the passing game as well. 

Despite the down game a week ago, Kyren still had a 64% route participation rate which ranked seventh among qualified running backs. And if you take away last week’s dud we know he’s an absolute stud and he gets the high value touches in the red zone. His snap share inside the 10-yard line is still over 90% and he’s still getting over 50% of the opportunity shares inside the 10 as well.

His efficiency is down on the year as he’s averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but with 10 touchdowns on the year we can play him with confidence.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Obviously, we’re monitoring the wrist injury ahead of this matchup but if he’s active I don’t see how you don’t play him. I’d be more concerned if he was dealing with an ankle, knee, or hamstring injury.

Hill hasn’t had a true spike week since Week 1 where he popped for seven catches on a dozen targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. In the two games since Tua returned he’s brought in 10-of-14 targets for a total of 150 yards. We clearly know he’s capable of more.

The Rams allow the most yards per attempt (YPA) at 8.51 and they’re weak against perimeter receivers which is where Hill lines up for over 60% of his routes. 

Per Dataroma (@ffdataroma on X), the Rams run 1-High coverage shells at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. That seems like a bad idea given Hill’s speed and ability to beat most coverages. But you’d think against an offense like Miami’s they’d opt for 2-High. I digress…

Against 1-High, Hill has a 31% target per route run rate (TPRR), 2.96 yards per route run (YPRR), and he has a 32.1% first-read target share. Against other coverages he’s averaging 25% TPRR, 2.10 YPRR, and registers 26.6% of the first-read targets. 

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $15,000

So I thought about lumping Kupp and Puka Nacua together in this section, but I think I have a good enough read on this one to give Kupp the edge. We’ve only really had one game where Kupp and Nacua were healthy and on the field together this year. Keep in mind, Nacua left early in Week 1 and was ejected in Week 9.

But more importantly, Kupp lines up mostly in the slot while Nacua is more in the perimeter. This means Kupp likely avoids Jalen Ramsey’s shadow coverage. Per Hayden Winks over at Underdog, Kupp is averaging 18.2 half-PPR points per game on over 20 expected half-PPR points. Above all else, Kupp just looks healthier too as Puka is starting to regularly land on the injury report for Los Angeles.

In three of his healthy games this year, Kupp has at least eight targets in all three. Last week he had 14. And in Week 1, when Nacua left early, Kupp had 21 targets. Both of these offenses are relatively consolidated which is fun and useful to know when building our DFS lineups. Kupp should be featured heavily Monday night.

De’Von Achane, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

I may have to make some lineups on FanDuel, which I rarely do but this price is way too cheap for a player with Achane’s upside. Typically, quarterbacks and wide receivers have a better shot on FanDuel as the optimal MVP. But at $11,000 we have a player that has popped for four big games already with three performance of 23+ fantasy points on FD.

Part of what’s so appealing about Achane is his usage in the passing game. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Kyren Williams had twice as many carries compared to Achane in this game. However, Achane is heavily involved in the passing game and has been Tua’s favorite receiver the last two games. Since Tua’s return, Achane has 22 carries for 160 yards (7.27 YPC) and 14 catches on 16 targets for 108 receiving yards. He’s also scored three times in the last two games as well.

Per Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23 on X) of CBS Sports, here are how the PPR performances for Achane have played out with Tua Tagovailoa on the field:

  • Week 1: 23 PPR Points (14.6 receiving)
  • Week 2: 29.5 PPR Points (19.9 receiving)
  • Week 8: 26.7 PPR Points (17.0 receiving)
  • Week 9: 32.1 PPR Points (19.8 receiving)

Per Gibbs, only seven wide receivers are averaging 17.8 PPR points per game on the season. Achane’s receiving numbers come out to 17.8 PPR points per game with Tagovailoa and we know he’s an incredibly efficient runner as well. There is a huge ceiling for him in this game.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

This isn’t a bad price tag on Tua on FanDuel and he correlates well with Hill and Achane, especially Achane as we just discussed. Since coming back, Tua’s provided a better floor than ceiling. But he has thrown for 230+ yards in back-to-back games. He’s completed 80.3% of his passes in those two games which is actually outstanding. The downside is the volume has been relatively low.

You can understand from Miami’s perspective why they would want to limit and take the ball out of his hands. The Dolphins have leaned on the ground game the last two weeks with 56 rushing attempts and they’ve scored 27 points in back-to-back weeks despite losing.

The Rams are only allowing 225 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks but they’ve also been incredibly easy to run on (another plus for Achane). But if utilizing Hill or Achane at Captain/MVP, Tua makes sense because if those players are popping off for big scores, it stands to reason that Tua is benefitting as well.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

I’m skipping over Puka Nacua for a couple reasons. I mentioned the first reason in the Cooper Kupp section as Nacua likely draws more coverage from Jalen Ramsey. Moreover, Nacua has been a bit beat up lately and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was a bit hobbled in this game. However, even last week when he was ejected in the first half, he did have four targets. Stafford does force the ball to him so that’s a plus. I won’t elaborate more on Nacua but he’ll make the player pool below.

Instead, I’d rather feature Stafford, who has been great since getting both Kupp and Nacua back. In Weeks 4, 5, and 7 Stafford averaged just 8.4 fantasy points per game in four-point per passing touchdown formats. In two weeks since Kupp and Nacua returned, he’s up to 22.34 points per game in the same format. He has six touchdowns in that span and it’s entirely possible he flirts with the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings tonight.

Some lineup construction thoughts? There is positive correlation between using Hill/Tua and Achane/Tua. However, we do get more savings on DraftKings by going from Tua to Stafford. So by not correlating Hill/Achane with their QB, and instead going to Stafford, you can spend up elsewhere. And given how both Stafford and Tua have performed the last two weeks, it’s reasonable to think that Stafford has a higher ceiling at the discounted price on DraftKings.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

It’s a great price on Waddle for this matchup. But I understand why some might be hesitant. Honestly, I might aim to be overweight. This game has an implied total just under 50 points and the Dolphins are underdogs. We could see a game script that has the Dolphins throwing more in the second half.

Waddle’s production has been disappointing as he hasn’t topped double-digit fantasy points since Week 1. Even last week he scored a touchdown but had -4 receiving yards. Make it make sense!

If Tyreek Hill is inactive, we can even upgrade Waddle to Captain/MVP status. But it’s a good game environment for him overall. The Rams don’t necessarily have any shut down defensive backs and they traded away Tre’Davious White last week. Perhaps we can still consider Captain/MVP exposure with Waddle even if Hill is active.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams - DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

Despite both teams operating relatively consolidated offenses, Robinson has definitely feasted the last few weeks. Even with Kupp and Nacua returning, that’s actually helped D-Rob. He has four touchdowns in his last two games. In fact, he has scored a touchdown in six of the last eight games when both Kupp and Nacua were active.

It’s hard to project the workload. However, he does run routes on almost all three-wide receiver sets, of which, the Rams deploy plenty. I doubt he sees nine targets like he did last week, but we like the touchdown equity for this value play.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

This one is nice and easy. If you want the player with the higher ceiling, you probably go with Robinson and hope he scores twice for the third straight week. If you’re a psychopath and play cash games for Showdown slates, you take the savings with Jonnu Smith.

The Miami tight end has seen at least six targets in each of his last four games. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned, he’s caught 9-of-12 targets for 66 yards. The Rams aren’t particularly good at defending the tight end position. A.J. Barner had four receptions last week, but if Smith can find his way into the end zone, he’s paying off this price tag.

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

There will be one additional value play that I think attracts more ownership than Jaylen Wright. However, Wright is my absolute favorite option under $4,000 on DraftKings. It’s a small sample size, but Wright is actually first among all running backs in the NFL in explosive run rate. Now I use the term ‘rate’ over ‘plays’ because players like Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Jahmyr Gibbs see the field more often than Wright.

But you might also be asking yourself, “Why isn’t Raheem Mostert in the Playbook?” And you’d be justified in doing so. Mostert scored twice in Week 8 and that was largely the extent of his fantasy production. Those two touchdowns represent 40% of his fantasy production the last two weeks.

And we also need to keep in mind, the Dolphins are on a losing streak. They can’t afford mistakes and errors. Mostert has lost two fumbles in the team’s last three games. Mike McDaniel even offered up this quote last week regarding Mostert’s ball security: “At this time we’ve learned two hard lessons. You can’t really be in the whole scope of alright, well there is another lesson that needs to be had while there are other guys that aren’t turning the ball over.”

You can take this as coach speak or we can possibly expand our thinking that maybe the team takes a new approach with Jaylen Wright as they look to claw their way back into the AFC playoff picture. The usage for Wright has been very frustrating and McDaniel is a player’s coach so it would be wildly infuriating if he kept feeding Mostert despite Wright being more efficient.

Odell Beckham., WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

It took a hot minute but all he needed was Tua Tagovailoa to return to start logging catches with the Dolphins. Last week, Odell brought in all three of his targets for 15 yards. He’s still not playing a ton of snaps but that could change this week. He’s logged less than 20% of the offensive snaps since Week 5. Malik Washington is seeing nearly twice the reps but hasn’t seen a target in back-to-back games.

And we can hang our hats on the fact that this is a bit of a revenge game for Odell as he was a part of their Super Bowl run a handful of years ago.

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Rams DFS Player Pool, 11/11

Player Pool

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