Monday Night Football delivers a pair of games that overlap each other a bit in terms of scheduling. The Jacksonville Jaguars head to upstate New York for a date with the Buffalo Bills in a potential AFC playoff preview. However, the Jaguars have gotten off to an 0-2 start and the offense has not looked very good.

On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills are 2-0 and could seemingly run away with the AFC East. Despite underwhelming passing volume, the Bills have put up 65 points through two games. It’s only Week 3 but this game certainly feels like a must-win for the Jaguars to avoid an 0-3 start. Let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Jaguars vs. Bills MNF Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Jaguars vs. Bills Monday Night Football Playbook

As mentioned at the top of the article, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-2 and the offense has been abysmal. At a certain point, the blame has to go somewhere. The Jaguars won the AFC South two years ago with a 9-8 record in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. In 2023, they repeated with a 9-8 record, which is disappointing considering they were expected to improve upon that same record from the year prior, and they did not win the division.

They enter this matchup 0-2 after they gave Trevor Lawrence a sizable contract in the offseason which included $142 million in guaranteed money. They took a 17-7 lead into halftime Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins. They didn’t score a single point in the second half and lost 20-17. In Week 2, they lost 18-3 to the Cleveland Browns. So in their last six quarters of football, they have 13 points to show for it and just one touchdown. That’s simply unacceptable given the offensive resources this team has. Going on the road to avoid starting 0-3? That’s quite the tall order especially with Bills Mafia in the stands.

The Buffalo Bills are off to a comfortable 2-0 start even if we’re frustrated with some of their metrics in fantasy football. Josh Allen has a total of just 42 pass attempts through two games. Sure, his TD:INT ratio is 3:0 and he’s added a pair of rushing touchdowns. But the lack of passing is annoying if you invested in Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and/or Curtis Samuel.

The Bills have just been so run heavy to start the year, but it’s working. James Cook has 30 carries and he found the end zone three times in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins and Josh Allen has scampered into the end zone twice as well. And we can’t forget, the Bills have a few extra days of rest on Jacksonville and they’re at home. On paper, Jacksonville could be fighting an uphill battle in this Monday Night Football matchup.

 

 

 

Jaguars vs. Bills MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Jaguars (+205)
    • Bills (-250)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-112) / Under 45.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Jaguars (+205)
    • Bills (-250)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-115) / Under 45.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Jaguars vs. Bills MNF, September 23rd

It’s the first NFL DFS slate of the year where we may just have some legitimate gripes with the weather. For our Jaguars vs. Bills DFS picks, there is rain in the forecast. There’s a 70% chance of rain during the day in Buffalo and that drops to 40% at night. But it looks like this lengthy storm will extend into Wednesday and Thursday. There’s always optimism it could clear up, but it’s certainly worth monitoring. Weather.com seems pretty optimistic with just “occasional rain showers” at night so it certainly won’t be a monsoon. With that said, the good news is that winds should be tame and shouldn’t exceed 10mph.

 

Jaguars vs. Bills Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without tight end Evan Engram for a second straight week. Last Sunday he injured his hamstring in pre-game warmups and it’s clearly still holding him back after he did not practice all week.

The Jaguars did announce that running back Tank Bigsby would be active for Monday’s game. As it stands as of Saturday night, Darnell Savage and Tim Jones are Questionable. Defensive end, Arik Armstead did appear on the injury report on Saturday, but it sounds like veteran rest.

Josh Allen is dealing with a mild hand injury, but he practiced in full all week and should be a full go. But on the defensive side of the ball, they have already ruled out Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Jaguars vs. Bills Monday Night Football, 9/23

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $17,500

Per usual, we go back to the well with Josh Allen at quarterback. It didn’t really work out for us in Week 2 because he returned just 9.76 fantasy points on DraftKings. But he provides the rushing upside that we seek out evidenced by the 32.18 points he provided in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals.

There is a small part of me that hopes we can see Josh Allen of the Jacksonville Jaguars get just one sack on Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. But aside from that, it’s a good spot for the Bills quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa was able to rack up over 300 passing yards in Week 1 on the Jags defense. Deshaun Watson couldn’t quite match that last week (172 yards). Allen is certainly capable of hitting that mark. But this offense has just been so run heavy to start the year, will they even need to air it out if Jacksonville can’t put up points?

The upside is why we still go with this play at the end of the day, but he doesn’t feel like as much of a lock as he was in previous years…

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Etienne has been a bit of a lukewarm option for the Jaguars, but at least he’s hit pay dirt with a touchdown in each of the first two games. He has 26 yards on 96 carries. So he hasn’t been overly efficient but he at least has five receptions on the year.

The matchup is promising Monday night. The Buffalo Bills have been fairly easy to run on as they’ve allowed 263 rushing yards through two games and 165 of those yards have gone to running backs. But we also aren’t that far removed from De’Von Achane catching seven passes for 69 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.

Etienne probably shouldn’t be the second-most expensive option in this NFL DFS Showdown Playbook. But he’s a play that will get volume whether playing the Showdown slate or the two-game main slate. Etienne did benefit a little bit from Tank Bigsby getting hurt, so that might give me some pause before going overweight on Etienne at captain.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $15,500

Cook was the optimal play in the Week 2 NFL DFS Showdown matchup against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. He only touched the ball 12 touches in the routing of the Dolphins, but Cook was a big reason for said route because he scored three times.

The knock on Cook is the lack of involvement in the passing game. Honestly, that almost applies to their pass catchers as well. But he’s coming off a three-touchdown performance and the Jaguars allowed D’Onta Foreman and Jerome Ford to combine for over 100 rushing yards last week.

Moreover, Cook saw three red zone rushes in Week 1 (two from inside the 10-yard line). And that was in a game where Josh Allen scored a pair of rushing touchdowns. So the high value touches were there and he popped off for three scores last week. He should be in line for 15+ touches in this matchup.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

I’ll be honest, this recommendation gives me some pause. Why? Well, Kirk’s production has been abhorrent through two weeks. He has just one reception through each of Jacksonville’s first two games. So why am I recommending him at Captain?

The matchup overall is terrible for all of Jacksonville’s receivers. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, through two weeks the Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including the fourth fewest to perimeter receivers. Per Pro Football Focus, Kirk has lined up at the slot on 74.7% of his snaps.

Yes, the two receptions in as many games are concerning. But despite the disappointment, he still has 129 air yards and has seven first-read targets through two games, which is just behind Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis who both have eight.

Taron Johnson is out for this game as he’s been held back due to injuries early on in the year. That helps Kirk who can probably see more looks out of the slot while Buffalo protects the perimeter and tries to eliminate BTJ and Davis.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,500

I don’t love Lawrence necessarily for Showdowns, but I will write him up for two reasons: 1. He correlates well if playing any skill position player from Jacksonville at Captain, and 2. There’s the two-game slate to be mindful of as well and I want to avoid being asked “Why wasn’t Trevor Lawrence in the Playbook?”

So here he is! He’s been an abysmal passer through two games. He’s completed just 26-of-51 pass attempts for 382 yards and just one touchdown. Overall, for a former number one overall pick in the NFL Draft, he’s a lot like Arby’s. Not the best fast-food chain. Not the worst either. Just kind of forgettable, you know?

But this is a Showdown slate and he correlates with a few different pass catchers. You can make the argument he correlates with Travis Etienne as well. But it’s also tough to feel good about him when we just touched on how good the Buffalo secondary has been, and they’ve only allowed 358 passing yards through two games.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

Not a whole lot to love with Shakir, but that applies to a lot of the Buffalo pass catchers. The volume has been low across the board. Shakir has at least caught all eight of his targets through two games and he found the end zone in Week 1.

There is the connection with Allen as Shakir was the only receiver on the roster coming into this season who had caught a pass from Allen in prior years. Since the start of the 2023 season, Shakir has an 89% catch rate and Allen touts a 144.9 QB rating when targeting Shakir. Seems like it would make sense to lean on Shakir a bit if the connection is there, right?

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

I don’t love the price tag on FanDuel considering Kincaid is the fifth-most expensive option for that single-game slate. We are well aware of the bad with Kincaid. He has just a 15% target share through two games but also a 75% route participation rate (83% in Week 1). But let’s keep in mind that the game script in Week 2 almost immediately went to crap and the Bills weren’t required to air it out.

Yes, the passing volume has been low, but we can’t just be staring at box scores. Big games will come for Buffalo’s coveted tight end. He’s an athletic freak that will find the end zone. And I can’t even say that this will be a pass-heavy game script. But the price tag is more than accommodating on DraftKings for this game.

Brian Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $11,000

The price tag on DraftKings is outstanding. Unfortunately, the matchup is not. The Bills secondary can be beat by slot receivers especially with Taron Johnson ruled out. However, BTJ only lines up in the slot 22.8% of the time.

The good news is that he’s shown off the big play ability through two games so far this year. He only has six catches this year on eight targets. However, he had a nice 66-yard catch last week and even with low volume, he’s produced double-digit fantasy points through two games.

If we look at PPR points per route run among the rookie class, Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey were at 0.53 entering Week 2. Brock Bowers was at 0.52 and Marvin Harrison was at 0.51 as well. Brian Thomas hasn’t seen nearly the volume those players have and yet he’s still tied at 0.53 with Nabers and McConkey. And he’s getting there solely with the big plays. Jacksonville cannot wait for the post-bye week rookie breakout. They need to get him the ball more.

Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

So we go back to the narrative of difficult matchups for Jacksonville pass catchers for this matchup. Davis actually lines up in the slot less frequently that BTJ (17.8%), but at least we have the revenge game narrative here?

Davis actually leads all Jacksonville pass catchers with 10 targets but seven of those came last week. He has accumulated 148 air yards through two games so when he is targeted, it’s usually pretty deep. Really, you’re hoping for a home run with this play which he’s certainly capable of as we saw a few times during his tenure with the Buffalo Bills.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $9,000

Strange should easily be the most popular value play of these Jaguars vs. Bills DFS picks. Even on the two-games slate he should collect a lot of ownership. With Evan Engram out, Strange has a tremendous opportunity after he capitalized on short notice in Week 2.

Strange caught three-of-six targets last week for 65 yards. He saw a 20% target share last week and he’s actually collected five first-read targets from Lawrence in short order. With Engram out once again, look to Strange to once again be a popular target for Trevor Lawrence.

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $8,500

Bigsby got hurt early last week and didn’t touch the ball at all. In a bad matchup, Bigsby lost work to Etienne and even he needed a touchdown for fantasy relevance. With that said, Bigsby was a limited participant all week, but he at least should be involved this week as Jacksonville declared he’ll be active.

Bigsby was an absolute dud last year, but he had some hype in training camp. In Week 1 he actually had a dozen carries for 73 yards against Miami. But he’s priced down because there was some speculation he could miss this game. But there were times where he arguably looked more explosive than Etienne in Week 1.

I do think Strange has a safer floor in this matchup, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t considering him at Captain for a few builds. Bigsby saw half the backfield carries in a competitive game in Week 1. Etienne could be in trouble if that repeats in this matchup.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

Davis gets some love in this NFL DFS Showdown Playbook because he has some appeal as a value play if this game gets out of control. The game script for Buffalo in Week 2 got out of hand early on. They didn’t throw very much with a comfortable lead and they didn’t even need to lean on James Cook.

Davis does have 14 total touches through two games thus far. 10 of those came last week. Has he been overly efficient? Hardly. But this is a game theory play because if Buffalo has their way with Jacksonville, there’s room for Davis to get 10 touches in the second half.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Another Showdown slate, and once again we have aggressive pricing on the kickers. The rain does give me some pause regarding kickers, but if the precipitation is light, we can still flex Tyler Bass and Cam Little (just not in the same build). Both provide a good enough floor, but neither is doing what Jake Moody did in Week 1 or what Ka’imi Fairbairn did in Week 2.

Bass has had a pair of field goal attempts and four extra point attempts in each of the team’s first two games. That’s good volume and he’s returned at least eight fantasy points in both outings. That’s good enough volume to qualify for the player pool in this game.

Little hasn’t had the same volume because Jacksonville’s offense has struggled. But he’s returned seven fantasy points in both games. Bass is likely the safer option but mix and match both accordingly. I would not play either at Captain.

I’m hesitant to recommend both defenses. The secondary of the Buffalo Bills and their ability to get sacks and force turnovers automatically puts them in the player pool. Yes, they give up yardage but they force big plays which can supplement their fantasy score.

The Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST is a harder read. They have only surrendered 36 points in two games. That’s actually pretty good. But they’ve given up 697 total yards through two games and haven’t forced a turnover. Josh Allen, normally prone to turning the ball over, hasn’t thrown a pick yet, but again the volume has been low.

This is a well-rested Buffalo Bills team so I am partial to getting more exposure to them because they seem to have a higher ceiling.

 

 

 

Jaguars vs. Bills DFS Player Pool, 9/23

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-