We kick off Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the NFC East featuring the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. I can’t quite remember the last time we were this deep into a season and were this excited to watch the Washington Commanders, but this is the Jayden Daniels effect.

Whoever wins this primetime matchup on Thursday takes control of the NFC East so let’s examine the top Commanders vs. Eagles DFS picks for our lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Eagles DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 11/14

Thursday Night delivers a fantastic matchup out of the NFC East. I know I complain about how much the NFL loves to feature this division in primetime. But I give them credit. They got it right with this one at least.

The Washington Commanders enter as the road team after a 7-3 start and they’re coming off a loss to the Steelers in Week 10. If they bounce back and win this game, they’ll sit atop the NFC East. It can’t be overstated how much energy Jayden Daniels has brought to this offense and you have to imagine they can only get better. With Washington playing at a high level, and Daniels emerging as one of the best, young quarterbacks in the game, Washington is presenting itself as an organization where free agents will want to go to.

The Philadelphia Eagles currently lead the NFC East at 7-2, having already had their Bye week, while Washington has not. The Eagles have not been perfect at times this year. But a 7-2 record speaks for itself even if they did have their struggles in Week 9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re coming off a dominant beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys, but it is worth acknowledging, for as mobile as Jalen Hurts is, he was sacked five times against Dallas. 

But the Eagles still pose a threat in the NFC. As frustrating as some of their performances can be, they still have a good chance to make it to the NFC Championship game. If they don’t then maybe they re-evaluate the coaching staff in the offseason.

But both of these teams have been gold mines for fantasy football. Let’s dig into the Commanders vs. Eagles DFS picks and lineup construction strategies to kick off Week 11.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Eagles TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Commanders (+150)
    • Eagles (-180)
  • Game Total: Over 48.5 (-110) / Under 48.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Commanders (+160)
    • Eagles (-190)
  • Game Total: Over 48.5 (-110) / Under 48.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Commanders vs. Eagles TNF, November 14th

It’s that time of year where it’s getting colder in the Northeast. Around kickoff, temperatures will be in the low 40’s and gradually dropping as the game progresses. There’s no rain in the forecast, luckily. Winds will stay moderately low around 5-10 miles per hour.

Commanders vs. Eagles Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 11

As always, I will remind you all that Monday injury reports for Thursday Night Football are always estimated. Teams in this weekly game do not practice on Monday, but they are required to release an injury report. With that said we will provide updates in this article and in Discord ahead of Thursday’s game.

Brian Robinson was inactive for Week 10 which paved the way for Austin Ekeler to get a nice workload. Robinson was limited in Tuesday’s practice session and even gave a comment saying he has a great chance to play in this game. Newly acquired defensive back, Marshon Lattimore, likely won’t be making his debut in this game as he did not practice on Tuesday due to a hamstring injury. The only other two players that did not practice for Washington were linebacker Nick Bellore, and kicker Austin Seibert.

The Eagles come into this matchup in pretty good shape. As of Tuesday’s injury report, only four players were limited. The most noteworthy of them being DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Both are questionable to play but still have a great shot to suit up. On the defensive side of the ball, Nakobe Dean and Darius Slay were also limited.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

The passing volume has been dreadfully low for Hurts of late, but we can still plug him in and play him considering he has EIGHT rushing touchdowns over his last four games while adding six more through the air in that span. The Tush Push is alive and well and it’s not going anywhere.

To the credit of the Washington Commanders, they’ve done well to contain quarterbacks with rushing upside. They do give up yardage on the ground, but by and large, they haven’t been beaten terribly by QB’s that can get it going with their legs. But no team is more effective on the goal line than Philadelphia and that’s been a big reason why Hurts has returned 29+ fantasy points on DraftKings in three straight games without registering a bonus.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

There is a little negative correlation between Hurts and Barkley, but it’s not a terrible idea from a contrarian perspective to squeeze them in together to boost your touchdown equity. The good news for Barkley is that he’s on the field for over 80% of Philadelphia’s plays inside the 10-yard line. The bad news is, because of the aforementioned tush push, he sees about 40% of the opportunities inside the 10.

All in all, it’s a great matchup and this is a game he could easily pop for 100+ yards and the bonus on DraftKings. He’s already done that five times this year. The Commanders have surrendered 140+ rushing yards in four of their last five games. With Barkley having posted 29+ fantasy points on DraftKings four times already this year, this could certainly be a spike week for him.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $14,500

My own personal philosophy with Daniels is that we haven’t even seen a true spike week from him yet. And he’s been great, and we know he can break a slate. But we’re all waiting for that monstrous game where he puts up a gaudy score.

And I’d be a hypocrite to not play him because I’ve played him almost every week hoping to get that one monster game, and it just hasn’t come to fruition… Yet. So I’ll go back to the well despite some concerns. 

For starters, Daniels has four games this season with zero passing touchdowns. He has three more where he only threw one. He does have four rushing touchdowns on the year, but none in his last six games. If you take away with Hail Mary touchdown to Noah Brown against the Chicago Bears in Week 8, he’s averaging just 15.7 fantasy points in four-point per touchdown leagues.

But this is a Showdown slate. If he didn’t have flashes of brilliance I wouldn’t put him here. He’s a variance play but he’s rushed for 40+ yards six times already this season. On two occasions he’s gone for over 80 yards. And ball security has been better for him as he hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 5.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Yes, I’m taking the easy way out and going with the four most expensive plays as my Captain/MVP recommendations. By all means if you disagree, play whoever you want in this spot. We touched on the lower passing volume for Philadelphia in the Jalen Hurts section. But if the Commanders can keep pace in this spot, then that bodes well for Brown.

Here’s the good news. Regardless of passing volume, Brown gets fed. And it’s unlikely the Commanders have Marshon Lattimore for this matchup. And despite just 20 pass attempts last week, Brown was second among all receivers with 102 catchable air yards. So even when he was getting targeted, he was going deep. He had a 35% target share in Week 10 and on the season, he’s leading all receivers with 3.57 yards per route run (YPRR).

Brown has found the end zone in three-of-four career games against the Commanders. In Week 4 last season, Brown caught 9-of-13 targets for 175 yards and two touchdowns against Washington. And then in the rematch in Week 8, he caught all eight of his targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

McLaurin is obviously everyone’s favorite receiver from the Commanders. But there’s one thing keeping me from putting him in the section above, which we’ll get to.

But since Week 3 he has six touchdowns and he’s elevated his floor incredibly well. Even two weeks ago when he only had three targets, his caught two passes and both were touchdowns. His production has ranged from 15-23 fantasy points over the last eight games. Again, that’s a great floor.

So because there hasn’t been much of a ceiling I’m a bit hesitant to put him up top. And the Eagles secondary has been very strong of late. As Mike Clay of ESPN pointed out, over their last five games the Eagles have held opposing receiver groups to 113 or fewer yards (each week) and one total touchdown. In that span, only Ja'Marr Chase has exceeded nine fantasy points.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $11,500

If he wasn’t dealing with a hamstring injury, I’d consider him a core play. I do expect him to play but we only have Monday’s estimated injury report and Tuesday’s official report to go off of. And I know we shouldn’t buy into narrative street too much especially because he’s dealing with a hamstring injury… But it is his birthday Thursday and you know there could be more of an emphasis to score or give him some extra attention in a great matchup.

We also have a little bit of a “squeaky wheel” narrative. Smith is a classy guy and will never outright demand more targets. But earlier in the week he did say “As a guy who wants the ball, as a guy who wants to go out there and be productive, and help the offense succeed, it’s tough… Because at the end of the day we’re winning.” 

The targets and production have definitely taken a hit since Brown returned from injury but it’s a good spot if he does see the field because the Commanders to allow plenty of touchdowns to opposing receivers.

Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

It’s easy to lump these two together considering they’re on the same team and priced similarly. This approach is rather simple. Austin Ekeler gets a massive upgrade if Brian Robinson is out. However, B-Rob himself indicated on Tuesday that he’s improved and that he thinks he has a great chance to play Thursday night.

The matchup is brutal. The Eagles gave up a ton of rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2. Since then it’s been more manageable. Since Philadelphia’s Bye week they’re allowing just 78.2 rushing yards per game. This negative game script might fit Austin Ekeler more. Ekeler has multiple receptions in all but one game this year. But the price tag isn’t great for a Showdown slate, especially if B-Rob is back. Ekeler does have three touchdowns in his last two games, but Robinson missed both. Robinson likely assumes his workload of 15+ touches which may limit Ekeler’s upside unless the Commanders really have to throw more as the game progresses.

Noah Brown, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

Brown and Dallas Goedert are the same price on FanDuel, but Brown is $400 cheaper on DraftKings, and I think he has an easier path to targets. Goedert did play over 60% of the offensive snaps last week for Philly so despite appearing on this week’s injury report, he likely plays on Thursday.

But since Week 6, Brown has at least six targets in four of his last five games. And he’s behind just Terry McLaurin in snaps in that span as well. So he’s on the field for two-wide receiver sets and receiving decent volume. He may be reliant on touchdowns to provide value, but so are Goedert and Zach Ertz, and Brown is priced between both of them on DraftKings.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

Outstanding price tag for Ertz considering there’s a bit of a revenge game narrative right here. This is the first time Ertz will be playing in Philadelphia since he was traded back in 2021. It’s entirely possible that we get “floor” games from the likes of Goedert, Noah Brown, and Zach Ertz. And they all have arguably the same floor so that would mean Ertz is the better value.

Over his last six games he does have three games with at least eight targets. But he is a tight end so he’s dependent on touchdowns for him to be a great play. And the Eagles have actually been good at shutting down more tradition “in-line” tight ends. They were beat by Evan Engram and Mike Gesicki but they tend to line up more in the slot rather than as true tight ends.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $6,500

I know there will be some intrigue with Jahan Dotson considering he also has a revenge game and I’m sure that’s something the Eagles will keep in mind. But at the end of the day, there’s the possibility that the Eagles do build a big enough lead to where this could be a blowout. I’m not guaranteeing that by any means, but it’s a possibility.

If that’s the case, when building 4:2 or 5:1 Philadelphia stacks for your TNF DFS Showdown lineups, consider Gainwell. We’ve seen that when the Eagles pile it on their opponents, they aren’t afraid to get Gainwell some work. He has at least five carries in four straight games with a catch in three of those four. In a beatdown of Dallas last week he had eight touches. In Week 7 against New York, he had 14 touches. Now if you buy into this kind of game script and need more salary relief then you can punt all the way down to Will Shipley who had nine carries last week, and eight carries back in Week 7.

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

I’m trying not to buy into this narrative too much. Zaccheaus is a Philly kid. Well, he was born in New Jersey, but he played high school football in Philadelphia. Not to mention, he played for the Eagles last year.

But again, if Washington finds themselves trailing in a negative game script, Zaccheaus should see more snaps. And that is a problem with any receiver on Washington not named Terry McLaurin or Noah Brown. Even last week, Zaccheaus played just 25% of the snaps. His limited role doesn’t provide for consistency.

However, he does have seven games this year with at least three targets and has returned at least 6.5 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. It’s not a great ceiling, but if the Eagles give more attention to McLaurin, that could open up value for Zaccheaus in a negative game script.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The D/ST’s may just very well come in as leverage opportunities for our Commanders vs. Eagles DFS picks. Even for Thursday Night Football, a 48.5-point implied total is rather high and we just saw the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens light up the scoreboard a week ago.

Play them at your own risk, but there’s upside with the Eagles, especially playing at home. They have 19 sacks in their last five games, and in their last three games they’ve recorded 10 takeaways. As we alluded to above, their secondary has really made throwing the ball an incredible challenge. If this game hits the under it’s likely because the Eagles defensive backs are preventing Washington’s receivers from getting their hands on the ball and making big plays. The Eagles also haven’t allowed an offense to score more than 18 points since Week 4.

Now if you do want to chase the offensive production, the kickers are firmly in play. I always endorse positive correlation. Since both quarterbacks are among my favorite Captain/MVP plays, it stands to reason their kickers make for good flex plays as well. Even more so, running quarterbacks have even more positive correlation with their kickers. Washington’s kickers have returned at least nine fantasy points in every game this year, aside from Week 1. So whether it’s Austin Seibert or Zane Gonzalez suiting up for the Commanders, there’s a safe floor and a nice ceiling as well. Jake Elliott is $400 more on DraftKings than whoever is Washington’s kicker. He’s had more variance this season but is still an all-around great play given how well the Eagles move the ball.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Eagles DFS Player Pool: TNF, 11/14

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