Thursday Night Football delivers a matchup out of the NFC South as Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Atlanta for a date with Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Both teams have playoff aspirations, and both believe they can win this division. This may have been a game we scoffed at when the 2024 schedule was initially released, but there are a lot of good daily fantasy football options to find within these Buccaneers vs. Falcons DFS picks. Let’s take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies as we kick off Week 5!

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 10/3

The Bucs visit the Dirty Birds coming off a dominant win over the Philadelphia Eagles. That win is a bit all-the-more surprising when you consider just how bad the Bucs looked in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos. But they’re sitting at 3-1 and all their top fantasy football options are making waves this season, but a changing of the guard in the backfield seems imminent.

The Atlanta Falcons are now at 2-2 and probably should be 3-1. Some questionable penalties late in Week 3 against the Chiefs, and a bad performance in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, have the team sitting at 2-2. But there’s surprisingly room for upside because they have one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way.

We can’t share the same sentiment regarding the reliability of Atlanta’s fantasy options. Kyle Pitts has been abysmal once again and it leads you to deeply consider if this is a Kyle Pitts issue or a team issue? He has the athleticism and this was supposed to be his year to finally breakout. But once again, it hasn’t quite happened.

We also haven’t seen a spike week come from Atlanta, so possibly a dance with the Bucs is exactly what they need. The Falcons have largely played to the level of their opponents so far through four games. Even last week it came down to a field goal attempt by Younghoe Koo to get them the win. Meanwhile the Bucs have dropped 30+ points in two games already this season.

It’s a very short week for both teams and that usually leads to less offense and more injuries that we need to monitor. Let’s dig in for the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons DFS picks.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Falcons -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (+105)
    • Falcons (-125)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-108) / Under 43.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Falcons -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (+110)
    • Falcons (-130)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-112) / Under 43.5 (-108)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Buccaneers vs. Falcons TNF, October 3rd 

The Week 5 matchup for Thursday Night Football will be live from Mercedes Benz Stadium which means it’ll most likely be with the roof closed in a controlled environment. However, if they do open the roof, as we saw on Sunday Night Football during Week 3, then that is likely because they don’t see any threats or concerns with the weather.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 5

There are two players worth monitoring for the Atlanta Falcons. The first being inside linebacker Troy Andersen who left Sunday’s Week 4 win over the Saints with a knee injury. Andersen said on Monday he was “hurting pretty good” so don’t be surprised if he’s a gametime decision. Additionally, Kaleb McGary, a vital piece of the offensive line, was inactive last week but has said he’s day-to-day so I am optimistic he can still suit up for this matchup.

Bijan Robinson popped up on Monday’s injury report with a hamstring injury. Do not read into this. Teams playing on Thursday are required by the league to release injury reports. So while it says he was “limited” that’s an estimation because the team didn’t actually practice. Robinson is probably fine and not worth overthinking.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they released a more in-depth estimation for their injury report. Sure, Mike Evans was listed as a “DNP” with a lower body injury. Again, that’s an estimation because the team didn’t actually practice in the traditional sense. He’s also a veteran that likely gets a day off every week now.

The depth at the wide receiver position for Tampa is where we need to be concerned because we could find some value among our TNF DFS picks. Jalen McMillan was inactive last week with a hamstring injury. That led to Trey Palmer getting more reps, including scoring a touchdown against the Eagles, but he also left that game with a concussion. Their status will determine some value on this slate so keep an ear to the ground as we progress through the week. 

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

As of this writing (Tuesday afternoon), Godwin is my preferred Captain target from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s not that Mike Evans is a bad option. He will also make this section. But Godwin has seen a very steady and consistent workload since being moved almost exclusively back to the slot.

Godwin is actually tied with Nico Collins for second among wide receivers with a 15.9% first down per route run rate and it also helps that he has a healthy 27% target share in this pass-happy offense.

He’s seen 34 targets through four games and unlike Evans, his workload hasn’t fluctuated. He’s seen eight or nine targets in every game this year, finding the end zone in all but one of those outings. Godwin should also avoid a lot of the A.J. Terrell attention so I’m expecting another big game in terms of workload. I love Godwin on both sites, but he’s a great value on FanDuel.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

Evans had his biggest game of the season last week for Tampa Bay. He caught 8-of-14 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. That’s a welcoming stat line considering he had a total of 15 targets through the team’s first three games.

The matchup is a bit suspect as he could see coverage from A.J. Terrell. However, Terrell got paid in the offseason and as someone who typically has eyes on their local NFL team (don’t get that mistaken for favorite NFL team), Terrell has been beat at times and it’s usually by the opposing team’s best receiver.

Evans is capable of the spike weeks. You can certainly make the argument he’s capable of bigger games than Chris Godwin. Godwin has simply been slightly more consistent through four games, while Evans has had two great performances, and two duds.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,500

Yes, the hamstring injury held him back last week. He rushed for just 28 yards on seven carries while catching all four or his targets for 46 yards. He hasn’t popped for any huge weeks yet. But he’s returned double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in every game.

Tampa Bay can be very difficult to run on given the present of defensive tackle, Vita Vea. But when healthy, Robinson can get involved in the passing game and return value on that front. He has 16 targets through four games and he’s caught all but one of them. 

Despite the hamstring limiting his upside last week he was still eighth among qualified running backs in Week 4 with a 58% route participation rate. Opposing running backs have also already caught 25 passes against the Bucs. So even if Bijan is limited on the ground, he can help us out in PPR formats. Then all we would need is a little positive regression with a touchdown or two.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

We’ve all watched Malik Nabers have the Giants offense run through him the last few weeks. Now I’m not saying the Atlanta offense is set to run through London. Not at all. In fact, it still operates through Bijan Robinson. But over his last three games, London’s first-read target share is 47%, 41%, and 50%. That trails only Malik Nabers among qualified receivers.

London hasn’t had a monster game yet, but perhaps one is due? He’s caught exactly six passes in three straight games with 28 targets in that span and a pair of touchdowns. My one knock on London is that he just isn’t a big YAC guy. He has great hands, can run a good route, but usually when he’s catching the ball he’s almost immediately tackled. But I do love the volume and think he projects well this week alongside his 25% target per route run rate.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $16,000

Surprisingly, Mayfield is the most expensive player on the slate over on FanDuel. Mayfield has had two BIG spike weeks already this year, then one decent game, and one dud. Overall, he’s having a strong year with 984 passing yards, two interceptions, and 10 total touchdowns.

The Falcons are easier to run on than they are to throw on. They’ve faced the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and even Derek Carr in the new Klint Kubiak-led offense of the New Orleans Saints. And yet, the Falcons have not had an opposing quarterback throw for 240+ yards on them. 

Mayfield could certainly be the first, but what I like about Mayfield is that he isn’t afraid to run in a touchdown on his own. Quarterbacks with even the slightest bit of rushing upside have given Atlanta fits. In Week 1 Justin Fields rushed for 57 yards. In Week 2 Jalen Hurts ran for 85 yards and a touchdown. Even last week, Taysom Hill, who takes snaps at quarterback on occasion, rushed for 24 yards and a pair of scores on the Dirty Birds.

So if Mayfield recognizes that and scores with his legs, it’s quite possible he winds up as the optimal captain this week as he already has two games this year with 29+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $13,500

I really hate listing Cousins as a core play because the production hasn’t been great. Granted, he’s thrown for 230+ passing yards in three straight games. But ball security is a big concern here. He has four picks on the year, but he’s also fumbled four times as well, but none resulted in turnovers.

The lack of touchdowns also hurts. He has just one game so far this year with over 14 fantasy points. So why is he a core play? He simply correlates well at the flex with any of his pass catchers at Captain. And if you play cash games on Showdown slates, you’re almost always playing both quarterbacks. Tampa’s defense has been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks. But Cousins is getting more comfortable behind this offensive line and I do expect the touchdowns to come his way in time.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

The price tag is better on FanDuel, but the Falcons love taking shots deep with Mooney. He’s averaging seven targets per game over his last three performances with 210 receiving yards in that span. 

Explosive plays are ones that result in a gain of 15+ yards. Nico Collins is blowing the league out of the water with 17. The next closest players are Jayden Reed, Jauan Jennings, and Malik Nabers with nine each. Just behind them? Darnell Mooney with eight. Big plays and big results are what we’re targeting on NFL DFS Showdown slates and Mooney has been getting deep targets over the last handful of games.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $10,500

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

I took this approach for the Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook for the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, where I listed the running back committees together. I feel like it keeps things organized so I’m taking the same approach here. I don’t want to put either in the core plays section simply I have my own preferences here, but I’m not 100% sold. If I were to pick one? It’s probably Irving that I’d want to gamble on as a core play.

He's cheaper than White and we’re seeing him carve out a larger role on a weekly basis. Last year, Rachaad White had a route participation rate of 70%. In Week 2 of this year, he logged a 67% rate. Then in Week 3 it dropped to 60% and this past week it dipped to 46%! Per Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, White handled all the red zone snaps through the team’s first three games. But Irving received all five red zone rush attempts in Week 4.

Things are starting to balance out in this backfield and it feels more like a committee than ever before especially with Irving handling the high-value touches closer to the end zone. Both are still wildly playable because there’s a logical game script where they each handle a dozen touches. But Irving is trending up and it’s at White’s expense.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $9,000

Pitts is likely a better value on FanDuel. And honestly, I wasn’t even going to include him as part of our Buccaneers vs. Falcons DFS picks until I saw the pricing. Pitts was held to without a catch for the first time in his career last week. It’s stunning how bad he’s been even with a new coach and a new quarterback.

However, if he scores on this big catch-and-run play against the Chiefs, do we feel differently about his season? He would’ve been a tight end with two touchdowns in the first three games of the season. Yes, the metrics are all bad. He’s a big athletic freak that does line up plenty in the slot, but he’s definitely been disappointing with just 15 targets through four games.

The route participation is dropping which is concerning. But at the same time, I wouldn’t be playing him if he was above $6,000 on DraftKings. On this slate, I’m willing to take a shot at a reasonable price tag assuming everyone else lays off. But trust me, there’s a cheaper tight end on this slate that should be more popular.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

I don’t quite get why Cade Otton is so cheap when he has 17 targets over his last two games. He’s caught 13 of those for 99 yards. Otton had an 82% route participation rate late week which was ninth among all tight ends. So we aren’t getting a monstrous ceiling by any means. But the volume and production are there. We can’t quite say the same for Kyle Pitts.

Moreover, the Bucs are a little beat up at the wide receiver position. Sure, we have some value plays on this slate we can consider as well. But Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer could both possibly miss this contest. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to get their normal workload. Why not just keep leaning on Otton at such a cheap tag? And honestly, there’s some appeal to play him at Captain given the workload the last two weeks. If Troy Andersen misses this game for Atlanta, that only makes Otton’s matchup even better.

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

I’m not saying McCloud is going to be this week’s Wan’Dale Robinson value play of the week, but the matchup is actually great for him on paper. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers deploy zone coverage more than most teams in the NFL. McCloud averages 2.33 yards per route run against zone coverage while also earning 0.24 targets per route run.

And honestly, how can we not like this price tag given how involved he’s been with this Falcons offense? He has at least five targets in three games this season and he’s returned 7.5 fantasy points on DraftKings in those games as well. We may not feel great about it, but he’s cheap and we can count on him for a few targets in addition to his work as a kick returner.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $7,000

Shepard was activated off the Bucs’ practice squad ahead of Week 4 and caught three-of-five targets for 51 yards. He largely benefitted from Jalen McMillan being inactive and then saw extra reps when Trey Palmer got a concussion.

Shepard was relegated back to the practice squad on Monday but then was re-signed to the active roster on Tuesday. That signals to me that the Bucs know they need some depth and may be without McMillan and/or Palmer. If both players are declared inactive for this matchup, then Shepard can easily pay off this price tag. But we should also consider Kameron Johnson as an absolute punt on this slate after he made some impressive grabs in the preseason.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I’ve complained about the aggressive price tags for kickers plenty, but they take the cake for a Thursday Night Football game in Week 5. Younghoe Koo is $200 less than Kyle Pitts. Truth be told, he might be a safer play by far than Pitts. There is variance to Koo’s game though. But he’s coming off a monster week where he kicked four field goals and all of them were from 40+ yards out. Opposing kickers have fared very well against Tampa Bay. Sure, Jake Elliott didn’t attempt any field goals last week, but from Weeks 1-3 opposing kickers were given nine field goal attempts given that you can move the ball on Tampa, but they stand tall in the red zone. If Koo gets three field goal attempts in this game, he’s likely putting up double-digit fantasy points again.

Chase McLaughlin has returned double-digit fantasy points in three-of-four games this year. The outlier being that awful game against the Denver Broncos where the Bucs put up just seven points. The Falcons have allowed kickers to attempt a dozen field goals already through four games. But that number is slightly inflated by Chris Boswell’s six attempts in Week 1. Either way, Vegas is projecting a close game with some offense. It’s a nice spot for both kickers. It’s bold to play both in the same lineup, but I’m more than happy to go with at least one of them in each build.

I’m not opposed to either D/ST. This is a Thursday night game after all. And one that yours truly will be attending because I’m officially done working on Superman: Legacy after 14 months, and this guy needs to let his hair down and celebrate. I write the NFL DFS D/ST Coach so I love looking at defenses. But neither team necessarily excites me in this matchup. I actually think both teams have good defenses. But I just don’t think they have good defenses for fantasy purposes.

For example, both teams have a “bend but don’t break” mentality which isn’t awful. It can work if you provide the peripherals. The Falcons give up 21.25 points per game to opposing offenses. That’s not bad, but also not great. What kills Atlanta’s value is the fact is they only have four sacks and four turnovers through four games. Last week they returned 17 fantasy points because of a pick six and a fumble recovery in the end zone. We cannot predict those.

Similarly, Tampa Bay is surrendering 335+ yards per game and 19.5 points per game. But through four games they have just eight totals sacks and five forced turnovers. Not every D/ST is going to be like the Minnesota Vikings or the Denver Broncos, who blitz at an absurd rate. But we do need sacks and turnovers to compensate in these 23-20 type games. So for this particular matchup, I’m willing to pay up for the kickers over the defenses and special teams, but won’t fade either position.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons DFS Player Pool: TNF, 10/3

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-