Week 1 was certainly not short of drama, untimely injuries to elite fantasy football picks playing on Monday Night Football, and the New England Patriots blew up several survivor pools. It was outstanding to have football back and on a quick turnaround we turn our attention to the latest NFL DFS Showdown slate as the Buffalo Bills head to South Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins. 

It kills me we’re getting this game on a short week. But both offenses can (hopefully) still put up points and deliver the goods on DraftKings and FanDuel, while also just providing an entertaining game. Here are the Bills vs. Dolphins DFS picks for Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown contests!

 

 

 

Bills vs. Dolphins DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/12

We get an electric AFC East showdown for our Thursday Night Football DFS action between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Both teams are coming off second half come-from-behind wins in Week 1.

The Buffalo Bills hosted the Arizona Cardinals and were down by a possession at halftime. Josh Allen didn’t necessarily sling the ball around a lot, but he accounted for four touchdowns, two of which came on the ground. The target distribution was hard to gauge. The sample size was small but there was some balance among all pass catchers not named Dalton Kincaid. But it’s a short week so we’ll see how things shake out for Week 2.

It was only Week 1 and there were already storylines breaking ahead of Game 1 regarding the Miami Dolphins. Tyreek Hill was detained by police ahead of Sunday’s game and he channeled his inner Scottie Scheffler to go out and dunk on the opposition. Hill went over 100 yards and found the end zone. It was a bit of a slow start for the Dolphins, but they came through with the fantasy goods we were drafting them for.

Short weeks can be a little tricky, but hopefully this game can exceed expectations, and we’re treated to an exciting game Thursday night. Let’s take a look at the top Bills vs. Dolphins DFS picks…

 

 

 

Bills vs. Dolphins TNF Odds At DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Dolphins -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Bills (+102)
    • Dolphins (-122)
  • Game Total: Over 49 (-112) / Under 49 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Dolphins -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Bills (+102)
    • Dolphins (-120)
  • Game Total: Over 48.5 (-115) / Under 48.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Bills vs. Dolphins TNF, September 12th

This game is being played in South Florida and we’re basically in the heart of hurricane season. With that said we can obviously expect humidity. There are scattered thunderstorms expected in the afternoon so just find cover and wait about 20 minutes, and you’ll be fine! But as the sun sets for kickoff, we’re still looking at temps in the low 80’s with light winds and about 80% humidity. 

With that said, the Dolphins usually have a distinct homefield advantage during the daytime because the away team’s sideline is sitting in direct sunlight. At least for this Bills vs. Dolphins DFS preview, the playing field is a bit more level as this is an evening game.

Bills vs. Dolphins Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 2

The Miami Dolphins have plenty of injuries to monitor heading into this game. It’s a short week of preparation for both teams so monitor the injury reports and inactives closely. Neither team officially practiced on Monday, so technically their injury reports are essentially an estimation, but Raheem Mostert is dealing with a chest injury and De'Von Achane has an ankle issue. Jaylen Wright could see the first action of his career after being a healthy scratch last week. 

Dolphins’ rookie wideout Malik Washington missed last week with a quad injury and Jalen Ramsey, fresh off a big payday, was estimated to be a limited practice participant with his hamstring injury along with Jaelan Phillips.

Update: Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out for Thursday Night Football. De'Von Achane's status will be known about 90 minutes before kickoff when inactives are released. If he sits, we have two great value options at the running back position from Miami.

The Bills aren’t as beat up but following their walk-through practice on Monday they also released an estimated injury report. Josh Allen should be fine for Thursday night but he did get X-rays on his hand following Sunday’s win. The Bills have also already ruled out defensive back Taron Johnson for this week 2 matchup.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $16,500

Is any analysis really needed for Tyreek Hill? The guy was detained by police just hours before the game and he still popped off for seven receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. That equates to 29 fantasy points on DraftKings.

Per Fantasy Points Data, he had a dozen targets and on five of those he was open on targets of 5+ air yards and overall, he commanded a 35% target share. And that’s important to note regarding the Dolphins offense. Despite all the training camp storylines and maybe trying to find that diamond in the rough in this offense, the touches and targets are consolidated toward their best players.

He’s fast, commands volume, and is always a threat to score. We can all agree that’s what we’re looking for in our Thursday Night Football DFS MVP and Captain, right?

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $17,000

We love us some quarterbacks with rushing upside and that was evident this past Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. Allen racked up a pair of passing touchdowns with 232 passing yards (on just 23 attempts) but he also found the end zone twice on the ground.

I know he only attempted just 23 pass attempts, but per Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, Allen had about 3.25 seconds in average time to throw, which ranked third among all quarterbacks on Sunday. That kind of protection will be vital this week in a potential shootout.

Allen threw 33 touchdowns a year ago and ran for 18 last year. Obviously, we would’ve projected some negative regression for rushing touchdowns, but I’ve come to just expect the unexpected with Allen and he certainly has the potential for a ceiling performance Thursday night. 

De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

This kid is just a home run waiting to happen at any moment. He has the ceiling perfect for our Bills vs. Dolphins DFS picks and he offers a $2,000 discount off Tyreek Hill.

This Miami offensive line is atrocious. We all knew that would be the case this year, but this line generated about 1.4 yards before contact while the league average last year was about… Two.

So how does Miami operate? Well, they know their strengths, and more importantly, they know their weaknesses. Achane had 10 carries for 24 yards and a touchdown. Obviously not the greatest efficiency, but they’re splitting him out into the slot a little more, which basically means he shuffles out wide as part of pre-snap motion.

Who cares about the semantics, because it WORKED! He caught all seven of his targets for 76 yards on Sunday. We already discussed how the workload is consolidated to Miami’s best players and if they’re going to utilize him more out of the slot, well then they certainly have my attention.

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

After rolling out with three of the most expensive names on the slate as Captain recommendations, why don’t we dive a bit deeper into the Bills vs. Dolphins DFS player pool?

It is only Week 2. But we do need to go bold for our TNF DFS picks. The Bills attempted just 23 passes in Week 1. By comparison, the Jacksonville Jaguars attempted just 21 pass attempts against Miami last week. So, we can’t quite come away with too much data from either low volume data set.

However, Coleman was the first-read target five times on Sunday which is actually very impressive. And remember, part of the appeal with Thursday Night Football DFS slates, especially this early in the year, is to get a little off-the-wall. We want to be early on the breakout performances. In Week 1 he logged a 22% target share and ran far more routes than any other receiver on Buffalo. 

Coleman still carries a first-round pedigree and is being offered up at an outstanding price tag, so you can really squeeze in some good players if playing Coleman at Captain.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

Tua doesn’t offer the rushing upside of other quarterbacks in the league so I’m willing to avoid him at Captain. But he still correlates insanely well at the flex if you go with Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, or even Jaylen Waddle at Captain.

Tua threw for 338 yards on Sunday with a touchdown. Even with the bonus on DraftKings he came up just short on 22 fantasy points on DraftKings. But the volume was there with 37 pass attempts. The big concern is how bad this offensive line is. He won’t have the best protection all year. So this offense needs to be quick and efficient in terms of getting the ball out to the preferred weapon of choice.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $11,000

I’m slightly more partial to Waddle over the next player in the TNF DFS picks. Waddle got a nice three-year extension in the offseason. And while he does play second fiddle to Tyreek Hill most weeks, there’s certainly still some upside here.

Coming into the season the Dolphins were projected for the fourth-most points in the NFL. And that was a projection accounting for the horrible offensive line. So they’ll adjust and make due even if there are shortcomings in the trenches.

Waddle caught all five of his targets on Sunday for 109 receiving yards including a big 63-yard gain in the third quarter. Even if he might be Tua’s third option in the offense, they run enough plays at a fast pace where he can contribute similar to Sunday. We obviously want more than five targets but with some of the running backs beat up, perhaps Tua gives more love to Waddle.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

It was only one game, but Cook touched the ball 22 times (19 carries, three receptions) for 103 total yards. This sort of game script/narrative will likely require him to be more involved. He didn’t make the section above, but that doesn’t mean you can’t make the call to play him at the top of your Thursday Night Football DFS lineups.

For the most part, Miami did a pretty solid job defending Cook last year. In two games he had just 65 rushing yards on 25 carries, but he did mix in some work in the passing game and he found the end zone in their first matchup.

Cook’s involvement is promising especially since we still don’t have a ton of clarity as to how the targets will shake out. If he’s in line for 20+ touches once again, then lock and load.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

This is a pretty friendly price tag on both sites for Kincaid. A big storyline coming into this season was how would targets be distributed among the Buffalo pass catchers with Stefon Diggs shipped off to Houston?

We didn’t learn much from Sunday, but Kincaid had just one reception for 11 yards. You want some good news? He played 88% of the offensive snaps.

The targets and big games will come. It was truly an odd week for the tight end position so I wouldn’t panic yet. In two games against Miami last year, Kincaid totaled 11 catches on 13 targets for 111 receiving yards. He should still see an expanded role and this is a game where Buffalo is going to need to throw to keep pace with Miami.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $9,500

We obviously don’t feel great about this recommendation as of Tuesday morning. He’s dealing with a chest injury and didn’t “practice” on Monday. But what’s largely concerning for Mostert is that he was only on the field for 43% of the team’s offensive snaps.

There’s still an opportunity for Mostert to maybe log 10-12 touches if he suits up, but at his age and given the injury history, yeah, we should definitely be a little concerned. If he’s active he’s worth some exposure as a Flex play but I can’t imagine I’ll play him in too many lineups as my Captain. Update: Raheem Mostert has been ruled OUT for Thursday Night Football.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $10,500

I am slightly surprised that Shakir is more expensive than Kincaid on FanDuel but perhaps they’re reacting to Sunday’s box score. Either way, Shakir was pretty damn impressive on his touchdown where he extended his reach across the goal line.

He caught all three of his targets on Sunday in addition to the score. I don’t anticipate him being Josh Allen’s preferred target in this offense, but at this price tag he can certainly do some damage if he continues to work out of the slot like he did for most of last year.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

I absolutely despise this price tag. Truthfully, he should be cheaper based on last week’s results. Samuel had just a 30% route participation rate and a 9% target share… And I can’t lie, folks… That’s bad.

But maybe this is a leverage play to consider. Most might lay off this price tag after the usage in Week 1. But remember, he does have a connection to Joe Brady from their time together in Carolina. Doug McDermott seemingly downplayed Samuel’s role on Sunday saying the usage was just based on the flow of the game and it had nothing to do with his toe injury. That could simply be “coach speak” but either way I can’t imagine he’s heavily rostered for this game. 

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $5,500

We do need to be mindful of inactives leading up to this game on Thursday. Wright was inactive on Sunday due to a coach’s decision and immediately questions came into Discord asking if he should be dropped. Sometimes we all just need to chill out and vibe. It’s a long season.

If either Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane are inactive then Wright’s an intriguing pay-down option if he’s active. The Dolphins invested a fourth-round pick in Wright and he flashed some play making ability in the preseason. Moreover, the Dolphins draft guys specifically good for their offense. That tells me they think highly of Wright’s speed and ability to make big plays. Update: Inactives will be vital tonight. De'Von Achane is a game-time decision. Raheem Mostert has already been ruled OUT. If Achane sits then Wright and Jeff Wilson become very popular value plays.

Mack Hollins, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

It does feel like the best value plays on the slate will come from the Buffalo side. And I’ll acknowledge this same note in the section for the next player, but Miami just funnels everything to about four players on offense.

So if we’re looking for cheap upside (I was hoping we’d get it with Curtis Samuel), then we’ll look to affordable Buffalo pass catchers. Hollins caught both of his targets on Sunday for 25 yards and a score.

We are sort of leaning into an ambiguous receiving group because the passing volume was minimal last week. But if there’s an even distribution among these pass catchers, then even the value options have potential.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

Jonnu Smith didn’t have a sizable role on Sunday by any means. Seriously, how does Durham Smythe get three targets (zero catches), but a guy with Smith’s athletic ability only receives two?

Smith did sign a contract in the offseason that carries an annual value of about $5 million over the next two years. So if you’re inclined to “follow the money” then Jonnu is hopefully in line for a larger target share. But remember, Miami consolidates most of the targets and touches to the top of the pecking order.

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I don’t have a ton of interest in the D/ST’s but if I were to pick one it would be the Buffalo Bills D/ST. Miami’s offensive line is terrible. They’re mostly trying to just string together an effective offensive line and maybe they patch it up with duct tape and Elmer’s glue but either way, they can’t stop much.

To their credit, the Bills did force four sacks on Kyler Murray and recovered a fumble in what was a high scoring game. But this Miami offensive line is truly terrible, and on a short week, I can buy into Buffalo getting pressure on Tua Tagovailoa. Even the Jaguars were able to collect three sacks last week.

I’m playing the kickers largely in an effort to correlate my lineups appropriately. In any lineup where Josh Allen is my Captain, I’m likely plugging Tyler Bass in at flex because there’s positive correlation there with kickers and running quarterbacks.

Bass went 2-for-2 on field goal attempts last week and was perfect on all four extra-point attempts as well. He was rather hit-or-miss at times last year especially after he was 2-for-5 on field goal attempts in the playoffs. But despite the short week of preparation, I do think both offenses move the ball effectively and can put their kickers in position to do well.

Jason Sanders went 2-for-3 last week but did drill a 52-yard field goal against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is a little streaky and very dependent on this offense stalling in the red zone. In seven games from weeks 3-9 last year, he attempted just three field goal attempts. The short week might actually salvage his day if the Dolphins are sluggish. I’m not depending on that and will have fewer shares of him than Bass. Both are fine so long as the roster composition makes sense.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Dolphins DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/12

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