Bengals vs. Ravens DFS Picks & TNF Playbook, 11/7: DraftKings & FanDuel
Published: Nov 07, 2024
We kick off Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the AFC North featuring the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals got off to a bit of a slow start this year, but they have rallied winning three of their last four.
A win on Thursday would certainly go a long way to earning a playoff spot in the AFC as it would put them one game behind Baltimore in the AFC North. The Ravens have won six of their last seven and, at times, look like the best team in the AFC.
Despite the short week, I’m optimistic this can turn into an incredible game to kick off Week 10. Here are Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens DFS picks for your Showdown and single-game contests on DraftKings and FanDuel!
Bengals vs. Ravens DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 11/7
We get a pair of teams with some momentum for our Thursday Night Football DFS picks. The NFL Trade Deadline came and went on Tuesday and both teams were active. The Cincinnati Bengals fear that Zack Moss may be done for the year with a neck injury, so they acquired Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears in exchange for a seventh-round draft pick.
The Ravens were also pretty active at the trade deadline. Ahead of Week 9 they acquired Diontae Johnson from the Carolina Panthers to bolster their WR corps. Then on Tuesday they looked to improve their secondary which saw a bit of turnover in the offseason. They traded a sixth-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Rams for Tre’Davious White.
The Bengals currently sit outside the playoff picture. Even the Ravens, for as dominant as they’ve been, are only a wild card team but can still take the division lead from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams have been gems for fantasy football. The Bengals boast weapons on offense with a bad defense.
By comparison, the Baltimore defense has struggled against good quarterbacks and offenses. Last week they were able to keep Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in check. Burrow and Co. can give the Ravens defense fits so it’s definitely a great matchup between two division rivals even if this is a short week for both organizations.
Bengals vs. Ravens TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel
DraftKings Sportsbook
- Spread: Ravens -6 (-112)
- Money Line:
- Bengals (+220)
- Ravens (-270)
- Game Total: Over 53 (-108) / Under 53 (-112)
FanDuel Sportsbook
- Spread: Ravens -6.5 (-102)
- Money Line:
- Bengals (+215)
- Ravens (-260)
- Game Total: Over 52.5 (-110) / Under 52.5 (-110)
NFL Weather: Bengals vs. Ravens TNF, November 7th
There is a 30% chance of rain early in the day but they’re likely to be gone by the time this game kicks off at night.
Temperatures will likely be in the mid-50’s Thursday evening with very light winds.
Bengals vs. Ravens Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 10
As always, I will remind you all that Monday injury reports for Thursday Night Football are always estimated. Teams in this weekly game do not practice on Monday, but they are required to release an injury report. With that said we will provide updates in this article and in Discord ahead of Thursday’s game.
As of the official Tuesday injury report from the Bengals, nobody has a specific designation for this game. However, the players that were listed as DNP’s for Monday and Tuesday include Erick All, Tee Higgins, B.J. Hill, Charlie Jones, and Zack Moss who was placed on IR.
The Bengals did note that there’s a chance Khalil Herbert could suit up and see some snaps in this game. Perhaps some good news is that Orlando Brown Jr. was a limited participant despite dealing with a leg injury.
The Ravens are only holding one full practice session this week. That happened on Tuesday and Lamar Jackson didn’t practice. There are no concerns as it was announced he’ll play. He missed two practices ahead of Week 9 and was still able to suit up. Isaiah Likely is unlikely to play. That pun was sort of intended. Not much I can do about his last name.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $15,500
I’m surprised he’s this affordable on FanDuel because Joe Mixon was $1,000 more a week ago. Alas, the price tag on FanDuel is easy to accommodate but not so much on DraftKings. I’ve written up Lamar Jackson so many times for Showdown slates that we just know what we’re getting at this point. This upside is massive, but let’s emphasize the floor this time.
In last week’s game against the Denver Broncos he only had just four rushing yards. He really wasn’t required to do much with his legs. But he still threw for 280 passing yards and three touchdowns. In fact, in each of his last five games he’s thrown for at least 280 passing yards with 15 touchdowns. And he doesn’t have a single rushing touchdown. His lowest output on DraftKings over that span was 22.92 fantasy points.
So imagine what the ceiling is if he does do more on the ground or can possibly get a rushing touchdown. Even a ‘floor’ performance would still be good enough to potentially be optimal at Captain.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $11,200 | $14,500
Henry might be the better point-per-dollar play but it’s incredibly close. And we know what we’re getting. Henry averages nearly 22.4 fantasy points per game in full PPR formats. 38.71% of his fantasy production comes from touchdowns. Normally we would signal regression is in store, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Henry. The combination of Henry and this offense has been a perfect storm so far.
We’re nine games into the season and Henry has already passed 1,000 rushing yards with 13 total touchdowns to boot. He is an absolute machine even after years of tread in Tennessee. In five of his last seven games, he’s collected the 100-yard rushing bonus on DraftKings. The touches do fluctuate a little bit depending on game flow but if Cincinnati can hang close, King Henry should get fed.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,000
I’m not expecting Higgins to play, which has been great for Chase’s target share this season. In Weeks 4-7, Higgins actually received more targets than Chase. But Chase has 11 targets in back-to-back games with Higgins inactive.
It’s not like the efficiency has been great with those 22 targets. He has 16 catches for 97 yards. In fact, 27% of his full PPR fantasy points come from touchdowns which is fifth highest among qualified wide receivers.
Both he and Higgins popped off against the Ravens back in Week 5. Specifically with Chase, he caught 10-of-12 targets for 193 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Overall, he has a rather positive track record against the Ravens (21 FPPG in seven career games) and he should see double-digit targets once again if Higgins can’t suit up.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,000
I completely whiffed on Zay Flowers last week. Now to be fair, we all assumed that Flowers would be shadowed by Pat Surtain, and when Flowers did line up outside, Surtain was shadowing him. Flowers did most of his damage out of the slot where Surtain didn’t follow him. It was odd to not have the best defensive back in the game covering Flowers regardless of where he lined up. But I digress…
Flowers gets a matchup ripe for the picking and he had a productive day against the Bengals back in Week 5 when he caught 7-of-12 targets for 111 yards. In four of his last five games he’s collected the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings and he scored twice last week. Flowers lines up outside on about 68% of his routes which is good news because the Bengals have allowed the third-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the last eight weeks.
Flowers’ production from the slot could be limited against Mike Hilton, who is one of the best slot corners in the NFL. But Flowers is still the Alpha wide receiver in this offense and could go for 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings once again.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $14,000
Burrow has largely been a bit of a mediocre quarterback at times this year. But he does have three spike weeks of 28+ fantasy points on DraftKings this season. Given that he had a five-touchdown performance against the Ravens in week 5, there’s an argument that can be made that he’s playable at Captain. However, I’m not projecting him to have Tee Higgins for this matchup.
The Ravens secondary has allowed 280.9 passing yards per game through nine weeks of the season. That’s the most of any team by over 16 yards per game. So the acquisition of Tre’Davious White certainly makes sense. However, I don’t think his presence is an immediate quick fix given how bad the Los Angeles Rams secondary has been this year.
The Ravens defense has struggled against good offenses with competent quarterbacks and playmakers. For that reason, I think Burrow and Co. could have a very strong game similar to Week 5, even if they lose the game.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $9,500
We will have to adjust our thought process and outlook on Gesicki if Higgins is active and good to go for this game. But Gesicki has feasted the last two weeks while his teammate was sidelined. And remember, Gesicki doesn’t really line up that often as an in-line tight end. He operates more as a slot receiver. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to slot receivers and seven opposing wideouts have now eclipsed the 20-point mark in fantasy football.
In the last two weeks without Higgins, Gesicki has gone for 12 catches on 14 targets for 173 yards and two touchdowns that both came last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Even way back in Week 2 when Higgins was out, Gesicki caught seven-of-nine targets for 91 yards against Kansas City. Again, we’ll keep an ear to the ground on Wednesday and Thursday and adjust the outlook on Gesicki if it looks like Higgins will play.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $10,000
If we’re looking at how Andrews’ role has evolved this season… Nothing has really changed. The target share and route participation haven’t really seen any drastic shifts. The production certainly changed as he scored four touchdowns from Weeks 6-8. I’m mostly including him as a core play for two reasons.
The first being that he’s incredibly affordable. He was $7,200 for the Showdown slate in Week 9 against Denver and now he’s $3,000 cheaper. The second reason he’s cracking this session is because Isaiah Likely probably won’t play in this game. The Bengals are also awful covering tight ends. Brock Bowers went for 5-45-1 last week but the touchdown came in garbage time.
Even Grant Calcaterra racked up 58 receiving yards against this Bengals defense in Dallas Goedert’s absence. But David Njoku popped for 10-76-1 in Week 7. And both Andrews and Likely combined for 7-68-2 when these teams met in Week 5. Andrews is a great value play overall, but if Likely doesn’t suit up then I think he justifies his position as a core play.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500
You’d think that when a running back is coming off a game where he had 32 touches for 157 total yards and a touchdown that he’d be a core play. That’s not necessarily the case with Chase Brown. It’s a short week and this isn’t a great matchup by any means.
As bad as the Ravens are at defending the aerial attack, on the other end of the spectrum they’re exceptional at defending the run game. They’re allowing just 75.7 rushing yards per game which is the best in the NFL. Brown and Zack Moss combined for 70 rushing yards on 21 carries when these teams met earlier this season. If there’s a silver lining it could be in the passing game.
Game flow typically requires teams to throw on Baltimore because it’s their weakness and Baltimore’s opponents are usually playing from behind. In Week 5, Brown and Moss combined for 6-36-1. Last week, in a blowout, the Denver running backs combined for 5-58-0. In Week 7, Tampa Bay’s running backs combined for 10-134-2.
So the production in the passing game could be enough to return value if the game script calls for it. But Cincinnati also left the door open for Khalil Herbert to play as well in this game and he would definitely eat into Brown’s production.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $8,000
The price tag is definitely better on FanDuel than DraftKings, but we know that Bateman has the upside to pop for a big play. He comes with a lot of variance. If he isn’t finding the end zone, he’s likely not optimal. In seven-of-nine games this year he’s recorded exactly four or five targets. In Week 4 against Buffalo, he had just one. In Week 5 against this Cincinnati defense, he had eight targets. He caught four for 58 yards and a touchdown.
As we mentioned in the Zay Flowers section, the Bengals have allowed the third most fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the last eight weeks and that’s where Bateman lines up for 90% of his snaps. And let’s be clear. I’m not saying Bateman has a 90% snap share. I’m saying when he’s on the field, he lines up at the perimeter on 90% of the time.
Given the upside, I think he’s worth taking a shot on at Captain in some builds. But he is the ultimate boom-or-bust play. And it is worth mentioning his snap share went from 84% in Week 8 to 61% in Week 9. And you have to imagine the Ravens want to get Diontae Johnson more reps after using him in a limited capacity on Sunday.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays
Diontae Johnson, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $11,000
Speaking of Diontae Johnson, I’m mostly including him since he’s been with the organization for a week now and I do expect him to be a little more familiar with the playbook at this point. With that said he did nothing this past Sunday, as was expected.
But we do know that he’s a playmaker when the ball is in his hands so if they manage to get him going, amidst Bateman’s decreasing snap share, then I’m intrigued at the one-two punch combination of Flowers and Johnson. But again, there’s always the possibility of a goose egg if he isn’t up to speed with the playbook yet.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $7,500
Iosivas hasn’t done much in Higgins’ absence lately. Mike Gesicki has definitely reaped more of those benefits because he lines up more in the slot. We’ve noted how bad the Ravens secondary has been against opposing wide receivers and that does upgrade Iosivas in this matchup so he’s not off the table. I don’t trust him enough in season-long leagues but there’s intrigue for a Showdown slate.
I will also note that if you want to spice things up you can get exposure to Drew Sample or Tanner Hudson. They are more traditional tight ends that offer some salary relief for this slate and likely carry much less exposure than Iosivas who has just one reception in the last two weeks while Higgins has been sidelined.
Jermaine Burton, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $2,200 | FanDuel: $6,500
Let’s consider a few things that are in play regarding Burton. He was a healthy scratch in Week 9 after some intriguing usage in Week 8, which we’ll get to shortly. There are reports that are probably a bit exaggerated. I’ve seen some fantasy and DFS touts say the team hates the kid. I think we can pump the brakes going that far because he’s a rookie and the team invested draft capital on him. He was a Day 1 talent that fell to Day 2 due to maturity issues.
I found this comment from Ja'Marr Chase to be rather interesting regarding Burton. Chase wasn’t an exemplary player his rookie campaign either. But the Bengals are rolling and can keep pace in the AFC and within their own division with a win. Burton was even the cover boy of last week’s NFL DFS Dart Board following his increased usage in Week 8. But we also know that Burton was punished and held out during Week 9.
I won’t say this is a “must win” game for Cincinnati. But Burton is an extremely talented player that can help the Bengals win. And early on in the week it’s trending as if Tee Higgins could miss another game so as long as Burton’s active, I’d take some shots on him but I’d max exposure at maybe 30-35% because that should be enough leverage.
TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST
For a Thursday Night Football game, this matchup has a very high total at 53(!) points. That’s wild given the short week of preparation and I would expect some money to come in on the under.
All in all we do have two D/ST’s that may go under rostered if most expect this to be a shootout like in Week 5. I can’t necessarily say I’m fading both completely in this matchup but there are other plays in this price range that are probably safer. Both teams returned just one fantasy point in the first matchup.
Justin Tucker has had a weird season. He’s regarded as one of the best kickers in the game, but he is pricy. Through nine games he’s only attempted 19 field goals, but he has missed four of them. He hasn’t been as much of a lock as he has in previous years. But despite the misses, he’s still averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game and he has five outings with double-digit fantasy points. Why? Because the Ravens score a ton of touchdowns and he provides a good floor with an abundance of extra points attempts, of which he’s gone 34-for-34. He returned 13 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Bengals.
Evan McPherson has seen similar struggles to Tucker. McPherson has just 17 field goal attempts on the season and he’s also missed four. He’s actually only 4-for-7 in his last five games with 16 extra points in that span.
Given that this is a Thursday Night Football matchup it’s entirely possible these teams are capable of moving the ball between the 20’s but struggle in the red zone. I would expect more of those struggles for the road team. But overall I’m upgrading the kickers and downgrading the D/ST’s.
Bengals vs. Ravens DFS Player Pool: TNF, 11/7
Player Pool
$ Tier | {{pos.alias}} |
---|---|
{{tier.name}} | {{ pos[i-1].player.team.name }} {{ pos[i-1].player.name }} {{getValue(system,pos[i-1].player) | money}} {{pos[i-1].player.name}} {{getValue(system,pos[i-1].player) | money}} |
Stacks
{{stack.team.name}} | {{player.name}} |
DraftKings | {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}- |
Fanduel | {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}- |