We close out Sunday’s Week 13 slate with a rather underwhelming interconference matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills. I’m sure the NFL had high expectations for this game when they scheduled it in primetime. But San Francisco is severely beat up on both sides of the ball and it almost feels like they’ve quit on the season despite still contending in the NFC West. But the weather is looking better than we originally thought so we’ve got some NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel to crush. Let’s take a look at the latest Showdown slate with the top 49ers vs. Bills DFS picks!

 

 

 

49ers vs. Bills DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/1

Many would have thought this game would be a potential Super Bowl preview heading into the season. That is not the case as the 49ers sit at 5-6. Do they have a shot at winning the NFC West still? Sure. Entering Sunday the leader of the division was 6-5. But the 49ers only have two divisional games left on their schedule to make up ground. But they would also fall to 5-7 with a loss.

The 49ers are hurting as you’ll see below in the injury section. They’ll be without some key starters on both sides of the ball while even playing some guys that have admittedly been performing through injury. Has the window finally closed on the San Francisco 49ers? It’s starting to seem like it.

The exact opposite is true of the Buffalo Bills. Sure, they have some pass catchers that they’ll be without for this game. But they have depth at receiver and they’re getting a key piece back on defense. The Bills also control their own destiny and can win the AFC East Sunday night with a victory over San Francisco. With that said, the big target is the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. Buffalo’s toughest game remaining on the schedule is definitely in Week 15 against the Detroit Lions. But the Kansas City Chiefs still have a few difficult AFC West matchups, so Buffalo certainly has a legitimate shot to sit atop the AFC by the end of the season.

 

 

 

49ers vs. Bills SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bills -6 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • 49ers (+210)
    • Bills (-258)
  • Game Total: Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bills -6.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • 49ers (+225)
    • Bills (-275)
  • Game Total: Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: 49ers vs Bills SNF, December 1st

The good news for this game is that we seem to have avoided the heavy snow fall that was in the forecast earlier in the week. The field conditions will be fine. However, Buffalo still has a significant advantage given that with the temperatures in the low 30’s, mixed with humidity and moderate winds, it’s going to feel like 20 degrees. But there is no snow or rain in the forecast so hopefully we see some offensive output for this game.

 

49ers vs Bills Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 13

The San Francisco 49ers are certainly limping into this road matchup on Sunday Night Football. Who has already been ruled out? That list includes Aaron Banks, Jordan Elliott, and Deommodore Lenoir. However, it gets worse for San Francisco as they’ll once again be without Trent Williams on offense and the defense will be missing Nick Bosa and while Dre Greenlaw did practice this past week, he won’t be making his 2024 debut in Week 13. And we also found out earlier this week that Fred Warner has been playing with a slightly fractured ankle for almost two months.

Sure, Brock Purdy is trending towards playing. But I’ve been saying this all week in Discord, it doesn’t matter who is the quarterback of this offense. If Trent Williams is out, the offense is going to have its struggles.

The Buffalo Bills have already ruled out Dalton Kincaid for this game while Keon Coleman is a true game time decision to suit up for this crucial matchup. Defensive tackle DeWayne Carter has also been ruled out according to the team’s website. But a huge addition for this defense is Matt Milano. He practiced in full all week and the Bills activated him off IR so he’s set to make his first appearance since Week 5 of the 2023 season.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $16,000

Josh Allen has a lot going for him at the moment. The Bills kind of control their own destiny and they own the tiebreaker over the Kansas City Chiefs. And with the Chiefs winning games by the skin of their teeth, there’s a realistic chance Buffalo wins the top seed in the AFC and gets a Bye through the first round of the playoffs.

Allen gets an outstanding matchup against the 49ers, who we just mentioned are severely beat up on defense. The last time Josh Allen played against the 49ers he had a 139.1 passer rating, completed 80% of his passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns. Not to mention, he has five rushing touchdowns on the ground this year as well so the floor and ceiling seem very secure against this beat up defense.

The Bills are also coming off their Bye week so they’re well rested and Allen even got engaged during the week off so congrats to him. I expect a monstrous performance from Allen and he can beat the 49ers in so many ways. We aren’t too far removed from seeing Kyler Murray rush for 83 yards and a touchdown on San Francisco.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

As of Saturday afternoon, James Cook was getting roughly -115 odds for a touchdown. The 49ers have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns which is third-most in the NFL. Similar to Allen’s outlook, the 49ers are struggling defensively and they’ll be without Nick Bosa. The defense in general is incredibly beat up and if there’s a chance this game gets out of hand, that bodes well for the running attack and Cook is probably a big part of a routing by Buffalo.

Cook is having a very strong season with 11 touchdowns but he’s only averaging about 60 rushing yards per game. The volume is a bit inconsistent at times, but he has the upside to break a Showdown slate as we saw earlier this year against the Miami Dolphins where he scored three times.

He is flirting with that kind of status where you either play him at Captain/MVP or don’t play him at all. I won’t slap him with that label because there is still a decent floor if you opt to flex him.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

This is a great price tag for a player of Kittle’s caliber. Kittle is the ultimate team guy that is a great route runner and a fantastic blocker. You don’t meet many tight ends that enjoy blocking but Kittle lives for it.

He’s also scored in his last three games when he’s been active. His receiving prop line has also been around 44.5 yards all week which seems incredibly low given that he’s hit the over on that number in seven of nine games this season. Kittle also sees 2.65 YPRR and a 23.1% first-read target share. We also like that when Purdy throw Kittle the ball, it’s likely catchable. Kittle has an 84.5% catch rate while 91.4% of his targets have been deemed catchable by Fantasy Points Data.

We also know he rarely comes off the field, and even without Purdy he was really the only 49ers player that did anything worthwhile last week catching all six of his targets and finding the end zone. I am trying to contain my excitement for this play because Matt Milano is returning and that could cap the upside of Kittle just a bit.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $10,500

This is a great price tag for Jennings who is coming off a down week against the Green Bay Packers. He caught five-of-seven targets for 40 yards but led all their receivers in snaps.

But I still really like Jennings in this spot. And with Purdy back, I’m assuming he wants to keep feeding his favorite receiver. In Weeks 10 and 11, Purdy targeted Jennings 11 times in each game, connecting 17 times between those two contests for 90+ yards in each game. Jennings touts a 28.5% first-read target share and 2.65 yards per route run (YPRR) according to Fantasy Points Data. Sure, the Buffalo secondary is legitimate and an obvious concern. But with Purdy back, he and Jennings have great chemistry and his ceiling is through the roof so long as Purdy isn’t taking a beating due to poor offensive line play.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,500

Purdy makes his return after missing last week’s game. He’ll definitely have his hands fun Sunday night. It’ll be freezing and to cap it all off, he’ll be missing Trent Williams. But for a Showdown slate, Purdy still offers a strong floor and I’m fine utilizing him as a flex play if you play any San Francisco skill position player at Captain.

Purdy also has four rushing touchdowns in the previous four games he was active and in two of those contests he rushed for at least 40 yards. He has turned the ball over 10 times this year and that’s obviously been a point of frustration with this team and Kyle Shanahan has been vocal about those struggles.

I can’t stress this enough, the absence of Trent Williams and Aaron Banks on the left side of the offensive line has me pretty concerned that Purdy’s blind side could be compromised in this matchup.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

It wasn’t easy leaving Shakir out of the Captain/MVP section of this article. I really like this play but had to swallow my pride and admit he’s probably better as a core play. I’ll still probably play him at Captain in maybe 10% of my lineups, but will have more exposure to the four players that did make that section.

Here’s what we love about Shakir. Anytime the ball is going his way, he’s catching it. According to Fantasy Points Data suite he has an 87.5% catch rate with a 26% target per route run (TPRR) and 2.48 YPRR which isn’t terribly far behind Jauan Jennings. He’s also great after the catch averaging 8.46 YAC/REC. In full PPR formats he’s posted double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this year. So why not include him up top?

He just doesn’t have the touchdown equity of the other four players. And I get it, touchdowns are hard to predict. But despite the increase in target volume, Shakir hasn’t scored since Week 3. I would love for that to change Sunday night.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

I’m kind of hoping folks spend up for CMC on this slate and just assume everything is okay since Brock Purdy is back under center. I’m not as confident. I’ve tried to emphasize this point in Discord, I’m more concerned about the loss of Trent Williams than I was about the loss of Brock Purdy.

Trent Williams’ absence deeply impacts pass protection and he’s an elite run blocker as well. And Buffalo is only getting healthier on the defensive side. Has McCaffrey been good since he returned? No, the results have been terrible, we all know this.

If you’re playing McCaffrey you’re leaning on the volume he should see. He had 19 and 23 touches in his first two games a few weeks back. Then last week he saw only 14 touches, but San Francisco fell behind early and they couldn’t get back into it. So why risk further injury to your star running back?

It’s at least comforting that he has 13 catches on 16 targets in just three games. The touchdowns will hopefully come in time, but by rostering McCaffrey you need San Francisco to keep this game close.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

It’s odd to put CMC and Deebo in a non-Captain/MVP section nor even the Core Plays. But that’s kind of the state of the 49ers right now. You can attribute CMC’s shortcomings to the Achilles injury or the absence of Trent Williams. For Deebo? Well, he only has two touchdowns on the season and the last one came in Week 6.

We do know San Francisco loves to get him involved in a variety of ways and they’ll scheme up some designed runs for him. He still has a 23.8% first-read target share which is respectable and he averages 8.35 YAC/REC. It’s mostly a volume issue because the target share is down to 18% on the year and he had just four targets from Brandon Allen last week. Perhaps this is a “get right” spot for him, but if I’m reading the writing on the wall, it just seems as if Purdy has better chemistry with Kittle and Jennings at this point in the season.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

Pearsall hasn’t recorded a catch since Week 10. The 49ers only had 49 offensive snaps last week, but Pearsall was still on the field for 33 of them, tied with Deebo Samuel.

The price for a Showdown slate is manageable and we aren’t that far removed from seeing him sort of breakout against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he found the end zone for the first time. He didn’t get a single target last week from Brandon Allen but that should change with Brock Purdy back for this primetime affair.

Dawson Knox TE, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Knox will likely be the most popular player at $4K or less on DraftKings. With Dalton Kincaid ruled out for this game, Knox should see more routes and targets, similar to what we saw against the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago. He didn’t find the end zone, but he did catch four-of-six targets for 40 yards.

Now as beat up as the 49ers are on defense, they are still good against tight ends. They’ve allowed 384 receiving yards to opposing tight ends all season long. Sure, Fred Warner has been playing through an ankle injury, but they still have De’Vondre Campbell to account for as well. So if you want to possibly find a pivot of Knox in case he puts up a goose egg, let’s consider this next player.

Mack Hollins, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

Hollins will cost you an extra $1,000 on FanDuel compared to Knox but given how they price out players on a Showdown slate, it shouldn’t be hard to pay up. But Hollins offers $400 in savings on DraftKings and he should carry less exposure than Buffalo’s tight end.

Hollins is a pretty fun guy. He thinks shoes are prisons for our feet, does fun TikTok videos in his downtime, and overall is a team-oriented player. The Bills could be hurting at wide receiver as Keon Coleman is a true game time decision. But Hollins also does get some reps and targets each week so this is one of those players you plug in and maybe hope he gets a touchdown, similar to what Tre Tucker did for us during Friday’s Showdown slate.

Jacob Cowing, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $200 | FanDuel: $5,000

If you absolutely need a cheap punt on either site for this game, then Cowing is probably your guy. He’ll have a hard time getting reps as he’s buried on the depth chart while Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall likely don’t come off the field very much. However, Chris Conley is questionable with a knee injury (but expected to play), and the team actually waived Ronnie Bell on Saturday.

So in a blowout, if San Francisco starts pulling starters to preserve their health, maybe that gets Cowing on the field more for some garbage time production. And he also does get work as a punt returner.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

If I’m of the mindset that I think the San Francisco offense struggles without Trent Williams then I should on board with playing the Buffalo Bills D/ST. The Green Bay Packers held the 49ers to just 10 points, under 250 yards of offense, and they had three takeaways last week while Williams was inactive. Sure, most will argue that was with Brandon Allen at quarterback and they may be more optimistic with Brock Purdy back in the fold. I’m not quite there yet. Since the 49ers have an implied team total just north of 19 points, I’ll take some shots on the Bills D/ST who have a strong secondary and they’re getting Matt Milano back.

I’m probably not playing the 49ers D/ST very much. They have not looked impressive at all this year and they’re severely beat up. The Bills have an implied team total of 25.25 points so I’m not excited about rostering the 49ers D/ST on the road in colder weather against an offense that can beat them in a variety of ways. San Francisco has allowed at least 20 points to all but two of their opponents this season.

And you can probably guess where I’m going with the kickers. San Francisco’s implied team total has me off Jake Moody for this game, but I won’t fade him completely across my 20 lineups. The volume was very low for him last week and if the 49ers struggle to move the ball as I suspect, then he may struggle to see double-digit fantasy points. Tyler Bass is definitely the preferred kicker between these two and he correlates well in any lineup that features Josh Allen or James Cook at Captain. He has some variance but given the implied team total for Buffalo, the sportsbooks are anticipating some offense for the home team and that typically means the kicker should be involved as well.

 

 

 

49ers vs. Bills DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/1

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