Bills vs. Ravens Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 4, Sunday 9/29
It’s not easy making the NFL schedule. You never quite know which teams will be good or not. Not to mention, injuries can derail the best laid plans. Luckily for the NFL, Week 4 Sunday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens is shaping up to be a good one. Which makes our Week 4 Bills vs. Ravens predictions a tall order.
The strandings through three weeks don’t paint the full picture as the 1-2 Baltimore Ravens are favorites this week against the Buffalo Bills. Both teams are considered powerhouses and Super Bowl hopefuls so this game could have big implications. And that’s not just for fans of AFC teams but also for gamblers and fantasy gamers.
Even if you just want to see the Bills vs. Ravens odds and have Bills vs. Ravens picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus! We suggest you do a trial on our “best bets” as we went 4 for 4 on ours last week!
Bills vs. Ravens Predictions For Sunday Night Football, NFL Week 4
Since they were both drafted in 2018, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have squared off three times - including once in the 2021 AFC Championship game. And the Bill have gotten the best of the Ravens in the last two matchup in 2022 and 2021. This week the Ravens are favorites at home but only by -2.5 points.
After a hard-fought game with the Arizona Cardinals in Week One, the BIlls cruised to easy wins against the Miami Dolphins (without Tua Tagovailoa) and the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens lost in Week One to the Kansas City Chiefs by a toe (literally), dropped an unfortunate game to the Raiders in Week Two, then bounced back with a win over the Dallas Cowboys last week.
Buffalo Bills: Finally Forced To Throw?
In recent years the Buffalo Bills have played a lot of “hero ball”. And the hero they relied on was Stefon Diggs. In 2024 they have gone with a more run heavy approach, spreading the ball around when they do throw it. And the real hero, Josh Allen, has been able to shine.
So far, they have not been forced to throw much. Through the first two games, they attempted only 42 passes which was the second fewest to only the New Orleans Saints. Last week they flashed what that pass attack could look like before the game got out of hand. They even pulled the starters.
The defense has been fairly resilient despite dealine with a number of key injuries. Matt Milano tore his bicep right before the season and isn’t likely to be back until the playoffs. They’ll be without linebacker Terrel Bernard and corner Taron Johnson this week which could present some challenges.
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews Quiet So Far
Lamar Jackson has been impressive as always. Zay Flowers has been the target hog we saw towards the second half of last year. New acquisition Derrick Henry has bulldozed a touchdown every game. Even second tight end Isaiah Likely had a monster game against the Cheifs. Yet star tight end Mark Andrews has been off to a slow start.
There has been speculation that he was rusty after missing time following a car accident. Or that he had lingering issues following surgery on a high ankle injury. But he claims that he’s the same player he’s always been. He added that “balls just haven’t come my way” when talking to the Ravens’ official website. Perhaps this is the week where he shows what he can do?
The Ravens defense has given up some big plays through the air which safety Eddie Jackson contributed to miscommunication. We believe in guys like Jackson, Kyle Hamilton, and Marlon Humphrey so that’s not likely the norm for this team. And Roquan Smith has done a tremendous job making tackles all over the field, averaging nearly 10 combined tackles a game through three games.
Bills vs. Ravens Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Bills vs. Ravens odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-110) vs. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Buffalo Bills (+110) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-130)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 46.5 (-110) vs. Under 46.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Ravens: Game Total Under 46 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Some folks say that betting the under is “boring”. But points aren’t the only exciting thing for true football fans. Strategy and defense can be exciting two. And I think the philosophies and situations for these two teams are leading us towards the under here.
Both teams thus far have been run-heavy offenses. While, simultaneously, both defenses have been top 10 in DVOA so far against the run, per our friends at FTNFantasy. And neither team really has the weapons at this moment to push the ball down the field. Guys like Nelson Agholor and Mack Hollins can get loose at times but neither team has a Tyreek Hill or even a Xavier Worthy.
I think what we see here is a lot of running the football via the RPO combined with “death by a thousand cuts” pass attacks. The Bills Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard is the perfect storm for Mark Andrews to get his “get right” game over the middle. When all is said and done, I think this game will be a good one and a close one, but will it light up the scoreboard? I don’t think so.
Bills vs. Ravens Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
BUF Bills
- LB Terrel Bernard - Out
- CB Taron Johnson - Out
- OT Tylan Grable - Out
BAL Ravens
- CB Jalyn Armour-Davis - Out
- OL Andrew Vorhees - Doubtful
- C Tyler Lindbaum - Questionable
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Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.