It's NFL Week 15 and look who's back on the NFL DFS Playbook! I had so much fun doing it last week and the Fantasy Alarm #FAmily did so well that I felt compelled to run it back again.

Last week, the pay-lines were incredibly high – maybe the highest ever – but not only were we able to keep pace with the field when chalk plays like Sam Darnold and Isaac Guerendo hit, but we were also able to move past the majority of our opponents using lower-owned studs like Josh Allen and Puka Nacua. We also made the smart decision to lock in with Zach Charbonnet instead of Braelon Allen. Big shout-out to Jon Impemba for the Sam Darnold love and to Andrew Cooper who ordered the bottle of Charbs for the tabes while the #BrunchBoyz were building lineups on the Fantasy Alarm GameDay Show (Sundays 10am ET) on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio

I'll stop bragging in a bit and get to this week's info, but sometimes, a little chest-pounding is needed. If you read this week's DFS Watch List, you'll see three of the four cash-game example lineups which were all dominant, but if you were wondering what the true optimal lineups were from last week's Playbook, here you go.

Also in the Watch List was a message to remind you to always play your cash game lineups in GPP tournaments as well. We meticulously craft our cash lineups with high-floor players as we are only looking to beat half the field, but all too often, those lineups end up being the best, especially in a week where a lot of the chalk hits. Our GPP tournament lineups are where we swing for the fences and, as a result, those lineups tend to be more boom-or-bust. If the boom hits, then great, but if it doesn't, you ain't cashing. Or if you are, maybe you'll 3x your entry if you're lucky.

But I digress. Last week is in the past and we're always looking ahead. Let's get to all the information you need to build winning DFS lineups for NFL Week 15. 

 

 

NFL Week 15 DFS Picks & Preview for DraftKings & FanDuel: Sunday, 12/15

 

 

NFL Weather: Week 15 DFS Impact

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns

  • We could see rain throughout the entire game while also enduring sustained winds at 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. Offense should be impacted, especially in the longer passing game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

  • Potential on-and-off showers during the game with winds at 10-15mph and gusts up to 20mph. The rain isn't supposed to be significant enough to downgrade the offenses, but something to keep an eye on.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers

  • Rain showers are possible, but expected more late than early in the game.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos 

  • Sustained 15-20mph winds expected early with gusts up to 30mph but also expected to die down for the second half.
 

 

NFL Injuries: What to Know for Week 15 DFS

Be sure to always check in with the most recently updated NFL Injury Report ahead of the Week 15 Sunday games. Here are a few players we are monitoring which could help open up additional value for GPP tournament lineups.

Key Names to Track:

Aidan O'Connell, QB Las Vegas Raiders

  • Missed practices during the week with the knee injury but the Raiders still aren't ruling him out. Even if he plays, trusting him is going to be tough, so whether he is in our out, Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers become a bit suspect to play. 

Breece Hall, RB New York Jets

  • Managed to put in a full practice on Friday but is still listed as questionable with a knee injury. Head coach Jeff Ulbrich said he looked good for the weekend, but if he is active, he could see limited touches since the Jets aren't going anywhere. The most important factor here is, if he plays, it kills the value of both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis.

Tony Pollard, RB Tennessee Titans

  • This could be the big one for us this week. He missed practice all week with an ankle injury until he managed a limited session on Friday. If he is out, Tyjae Spears could end up as this week's Guerendo/Charbonnet. Stay tuned.

Bucky Irving, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Dealing with a hip and back issue that kept him sidelined for most of the week. He did put in a limited session on Friday. He is listed as questionable and considered a game-time decision. If he is out, Rachaad White will see the majority of touches with Sean Tucker working his way into the mix.

Ladd McConkey, WR Los Angeles Chargers

  • He continues to deal with a knee injury that sidelined him last week. He was able to put in limited sessions last week before being declared inactive, so the limited sessions he took part in this week don't exactly carry a ton of weight. Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer would see an uptick in targets against a bad Bucs pass defense, as would tight end Stone Smartt.

Josh Downs, WR Indianapolis Colts

  • Dealing with a shoulder injury, Downs managed to put in a full practice on Friday. However, he is still listed as questionable and while he says he feels good and wants to play, he also deferred to it ultimately being a coach's decision if he suits up.

Dalton Kincaid, TE Buffalo Bills

  • Missed last three games but managed to put in limited practices both Thursday and Friday. If he is out, Dawson Knox steps in for a game with a 54.5 over/under

David Njoku, TE Cleveland Browns

Missed practices all week with a hamstring issue and while listed as questionable, he seems unlikely to play. Jordan Akins would step in as the lead tight end but he's not the pass-catcher Njoku is.

NFL DFS Picks & Player Pool: Week 15

QB Coach | RB Coach | WR Coach | TE Coach | DST Coach | Watch List | Dart Board

Pos
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Player
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Matchup
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DK
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FD
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QBJosh AllenBUF @ DET Sun 4:2585009500

Not sure real number-crunching analysis is needed here, especially after what we watched last week. All will be highly-owned this week and is in a great spot against a mid-level secondary in a game with an over/under of 54.5. He should have all of his receiving weapons back on the field this week and, obviously has the rushing upside we love. We'll need to find some good value plays we can trust in cash because this price tag is going to make things difficult. Added side note, after becoming the first quarterback in history to record a rushing, receiving and passing touchdown in the same game, he could add to his resume this week as he is just two touchdown passes away from becoming the first quarterback in history to reach 25 passing and five rushing touchdowns on five consecutive seasons. Not too shabby. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
QBLamar JacksonBAL @ NYG Sun 1:0083009000

The Giants defense is an absolute mess and while I've said all week that Jackson is going to be my favorite GPP quarterback, I am starting to come around to the idea of also using him in cash games. The upside for tournaments is obvious as everyone will be using Derrick Henry this week, but Jackson has been a model of consistency lately, averaging 267 passing yards with a 19:1 TD:INT over his last seven games. Also, over the last four years, coming off a bye, he has averaged 250 passing yards and two touchdowns per game while also rushing for an average of 71 yards per game. If we can get a ceiling game from him for our cash lineups too…? Oh baby!

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
QBTua TagovailoaMIA @ HOU Sun 1:0061008300

When the Fantasy Alarm QB Guru speaks, we listen. If you've read Jon Impemba's QB Coach, then you saw Tua on the cover and also as his Play of the Week. Tough to argue against three-straight 300-yard games and an average of 325 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to no interceptions over his last four. Houston's defense will be rested coming off the bye week, but they are missing some key components in Azeez Al-Shaair (suspension) and Jalen Pitre (IR).

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
QBKyler MurrayNE @ ARI Sun 4:2560007800

He was actually one of my featured quarterbacks in the DFS Watch List and I haven't wavered in my opinion. The Patriots rank 28th in DVOA against the pass, they allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position and they've struggled to contain mobile QBs. Murray just needs to find his weapons on the opposite side of the field from Christian Gonzalez which shouldn't be difficult to do. Even after a down week with two bad picks and only 16 rushing yards, he still managed more than 20 fantasy points. That's a floor you can trust.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly sunny
QBJustin HerbertTB @ LAC Sun 4:2559007500

If Ladd McConkey is in then I love this play even more. If he is out, I may still build a tournament lineup with him, but I probably won't love it as much. The Tampa secondary is one of the worst when it comes to defending the middle of the field and their corners can be beaten deep as well. If Herbert has McConkey, then I expect him to attack the middle of the field throughout and help move the chains that way. Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are realizing that their ground game isn't all that, so they'll likely keep Herbert throwing in this one. 

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Partly sunny
QBAaron RodgersNYJ @ JAC Sun 1:0054007100

He was my other featured QB in the Watch List and also the cover boy. You know I'm not a fan of Rodgers or what he's done to the Jets, but he's a stat-padder looing to find himself another job next season. He knows his time with the Jets is over, but if he can finish the season strong, some team in need of a QB will sign him. The Jaguars rank at or near the bottom in every defensive metric against the pass and Rodgers is going to pick their secondary apart in this one.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
QBJameis WinstonKC @ CLE Sun 1:0055007000

The weather is making me a little nervous, but we all know Winston is going to throw the ball 40 times in this one. I do like the Chiefs' pass defense, but this is a volume play and they have softened over the course of the season. The expected rain will probably shorten up the passing game a bit, but Winston should be able to get the ball to Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore on the shorter routes and let them pad his stats with yards after the catch.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBDerrick HenryBAL @ NYG Sun 1:0083009200

He's the mayor of Chalk City this week even if our DFS Ownership Projections have him fourth among running backs. I expect the numbers to climb, especially in GPP tournaments, but the casual DFS player will bite the bullet on the price tag and find a way to squeeze him into cash games as well. That actually might work to our advantage because they're going to play some dart-throws that have no business being in a cash lineup. But Henry against the depleted Giants defense is a smash-play for everyone and we all know it. Build your lineups accordingly.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBJosh JacobsGB @ SEA Sun 8:208200

FANDUEL ONLY – Seattle has a mid-level run defense according to DVOA, but they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game this season. They just haven't allowed a ton of rushing touchdowns. That is likely to change this week facing Jacobs who has been an absolute beast inside the red and green zones this season. In fact, he's seen 24 red zone carries (19 inside the green zone) over the last four games and has eight rushing touchdowns over that span. He sees consistent volume and this game should be competitive so he'll be a factor throughout its entirety.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
RBChase BrownCIN @ TEN Sun 1:0072008100

Our DFS Ownership Projections have him listed as one of the top-owned running backs, but he's definitely not my favorite. He's listed as both because of the ownership, though. The Titans run defense has been solid all year but where they lack is on the outside zone where Brown thrives the most. They also rank 29th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. The Bengals offense has been on fire over the last five weeks and Brown is very much a part of it. With the Cincinnati defense being as bad as it is, the hope is that the Titans put some points up the other way and this stays competitive. If not, then I'm guessing Khalil Herbert gets the rock in the second half to kill the clock. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBJahmyr GibbsBUF @ DET Sun 4:2575008000

While the Bills defense ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, they are still very vulnerable to strong rushing attacks. They've allowed an average of 127 rushing yards per game over their last five games and coughed up four rushing touchdowns in that span. With the game total sitting at 54.5, we're obviously expecting some fireworks, but before we declare this as the ultimate shootout, understand that Dan Campbell is all about the run still. He will attack on the ground early and try to assert some dominance with his offensive line, so both Gibbs and Montgomery will be used often. He is listed strictly as a GPP play, though, because it's a 50/50 split and should one get hotter than the other, Campbell will likely ride the wave. You also have the potential of the Bills striking first and putting the Lions on their heels, forcing them into more passing. The guys are splitting the targets fairly evenly as well, so which one you use likely comes down to cost. Of course, you could also just use both in a game-stack.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBDavid MontgomeryBUF @ DET Sun 4:2570007700

Everything I just said up above goes for Montgomery too. I have him listed in the Playbook as well in case you use the Playbook Only feature in our Lineup Generator

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBChuba HubbardDAL @ CAR Sun 1:0065007500

If Derrick Henry is the mayor of Chalk City, then Chuba is likely the head of the City Council. If you know local government hierarchy, then you understand. Chuba is going to be highly-owned and probably a lock for all cash-game lineups for me. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game, they've given up the most rushing touchdowns this season and while they rank 13th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, they're still giving up an average of 40 yards per game to them. Dave Canales is doing with Chuba the same thing he did with Rachaad White last year. Volume, volume, volume, and with no Jonathan Brooks to steal goal-line work, he's going to continue to find the end zone.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBBrian RobinsonWAS @ NO Sun 1:0062007300

The Saints are a classic run-funnel defense. They're allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game, they're allowing 5.0 yards per carry which is highest in the league and they've coughed up 16 rushing touchdowns. They're also giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Maybe Jeremy McNichols gets splashed in a but, but it won't be enough to deter me from using Robinson in cash games this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
RBRico DowdleDAL @ CAR Sun 1:0061007100

As much as we are in on Chuba Hubbard running against Dallas, we are equally excited about using Dowdle against the Panthers. The game should be competitive so there is little concern regarding Dowdle being game-flowed out. He's seeing strong volume since Cooper Rush took over at QB and he's coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts. The Panthers ranks dead-last in DVOA against the run and they're allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back position.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
RBZach CharbonnetGB @ SEA Sun 8:206700

FANDUEL ONLY – Another bottle of Charbs for the tabes! That's the cry of the #BrunchBoyz, baby! We locked him down last week and with Kenneth Walker again listed as doubtful, we should get our value running back in a great spot as anyone who has followed me knows how much I like getting a Sunday night player into my lineup on FanDuel. He saw 22 carries against a good but not great Arizona run defense and will now face the Packers who have been solid against the run, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, but they also rank 19th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If Charbs is going to see similar volume to last week and any week he's been the starter, he should be an outstanding play. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
WRJa'Marr ChaseCIN @ TEN Sun 1:0084009400

Do you need me to drop any analysis here? All a matter of price. The Titans secondary lost L'Jarius Snead a few weeks again and they've been beaten up ever since. They got back Chidobe Awuzie, but he's not going to be able to stop Chase. Dude's a beast. If you can fit his price tag, lock him in.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
WRA.J. BrownPIT @ PHI Sun 4:2580008600

So much has been made of this apparent feud between Brown and Jalen Hurts that this play is giving me all the feels of a “squeaky wheel” getting the grease. He'll see plenty of Joey Porter Jr. in coverage, but he doesn't have the physicality to match Brown. DFS Ownership Projections have him under 3% right now, so I'll be making sure he's in some of my GPP lineups for sure. Cash too if I can afford it. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
WRAmon-Ra St. BrownBUF @ DET Sun 4:2576008500

After a run of eight-straight games with a touchdown, ARSB has been held in check over the last three games, averaging roughly 70 yards per game and no scores. Does that change here against the Bills? A game we know Goff, at some point, is going to have to start throwing? The run-first game-plan of the Lions and the fact that we've seen other pass-catchers featured in recent game has me only looking at him in GPP tournaments, but I will definitely have exposure to him. His ceiling is huge and with the 54.5 game total, he cannot be ignored.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy
WRTerry McLaurinWAS @ NO Sun 1:0072008200

One of my absolute favorite GPP plays this week as the Saints secondary is terrible. Not to mention, you know the Commanders receivers have been sitting down with new teammate Marshon Lattimore to get the scoop on all the Saints corners. Alontae Taylor can't hand with McLaurin and neither can Kool-Aid McKinstry. He had 13 catches for 175 yards with three touchdowns in the two games that led into the bye week and should have no trouble carrying that momentum into this week. 

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaGB @ SEA Sun 8:208100

FANDUEL ONLY – He's been the Seahawks most dynamic receiver over the last four weeks and should have little to no trouble lighting up slot-corner Javon Bullard. His yards after the catch have been spectacular and Geno Smith should continue to ride him during this match-up. I expect him to be highly-owned which is why I will lean on him in cash games and that ceiling makes him a fantastic GPP tournament play as well. Just check on his ownership before you lock him into GPP tournaments.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
WRDK MetcalfGB @ SEA Sun 8:207600

FANDUEL ONLY – Maybe I'm being stubborn, bit with no Jaire Alexander, I am going to use Metcalf in some GPP lineups. His ceiling is too high to ignore and while yes, he's failed to deliver over the last four weeks following the Seahawks bye, he is walking into Sunday's game without an injury designation and with full practices under his belt for the first time since Week 7. Ownership will be lower than it should be and I am 100% here for that.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
WRDavante AdamsNYJ @ JAC Sun 1:0069007900

Since arriving in New York, Adams has been Rodgers' favorite target. He and Garrett Wilson have played the same number of snaps, but Adams has seen eight more targets. The DVOA numbers show the Jaguars struggle against the WR2 more than the WR1, but we cannot ignore the fact that a stat-padding Rodgers will likely lean on the his favorites more as he looks to finish the season string. I will be building lineups with Adams only, with Wilson only and with both in a stack if I can. Deciphering which one will pop the most might be difficult, but each should see enough volume in this one to warrant a spot in both cash and GPP lineups. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
WRGarrett WilsonNYJ @ JAC Sun 1:0065007400

Like I said, the DVOA numbers point towards Wilson being the stringer play on paper, but Rodgers still favors his buddies. Again, he and Adams are playing the same snaps and their target shares are pretty similar. Against the Jags, you can use either guy and probably still be happy. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
WRCourtland SuttonIND @ DEN Sun 4:2566007200

Target monster, amirite? In the six games leading up to the bye, Sutton was averaging 9.5 targets per game and delivering an average of seven catches for 94.8 yards each week. He has three 100-yard efforts and three touchdowns in that span and should be able to deliver against a struggling Colts secondary. I've said it before – Joe Lombardi's offense funnels targets to the X-receiver, so expect Sutton to continue to produce at a high level.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
WRKhalil ShakirBUF @ DET Sun 4:2561007000

With 15 targets over the last two games, we know there's going to be a continued lean on Shakir. Yes, Amari Cooper saw more targets last week, but Shakir has been a bit of a security blanket for Allen. He is also matching up against slot-corner Amik Robertson who is, for lack of another way to say it, not good. I think there's another lean on Shakir to help move the chains this week and he should add significant yards after the catch. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
WRAmari CooperBUF @ DET Sun 4:2553005900

While Shakir might be my favorite Bills receiver for cash games, we cannot ignore 14 targets for Cooper last week. He is a fantastic downfield threat as well as a strong option on intermediate routes. He's healthy, he's playing an increased snap share and his price tag just might be too good to pass up. 

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy
WRCalvin RidleyCIN @ TEN Sun 1:0059006000

Considering the volume he sees, the price tag is a nice bargain. It's especially nicer this week facing one of the absolute worst secondaries in the league. Having Will Levis as his QB is a bit of a bummer, but head coach and play-caller Brian Callahan knows Lou Anarumo and this Bengals defense better than anyone. He'll find ways to exploit the match-ups and get Ridley into some great situations.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
WRAdam ThielenDAL @ CAR Sun 1:0054006100

Since returning from injury, the target share has gone from 11.4% to 21.7% to 32.4%. He is clearly Bryce Young's favorite target and head coach Dave Canales has obviously instructed his quarterback to lean on the veteran. He's got the 10th-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards and 15th-most fantasy points among all wide receivers over the last three weeks and should be able to exploit the holes in the Dallas zone coverage. if the Cowboys continue to use two high safeties as they usually do, Thielen should have a big week.

Game Type: CASH
Weather: Cloudy
WRMichael WilsonNE @ ARI Sun 4:2544005400

Any chance you caught my recent WR Sleepers video on the Fantasy Alarm YouTube page or my socials? I'm a big fan of Kyler Murray this week and while I can appreciate that Marvin Harrison Jr. is the alpha receiver in this offense, I also expect him to see a lot of Christian Gonzalez who has help opposing WR1s to fewer than 50 receiving yards in five out of the last six games. The only receiver to best him in that span was Puka Nacua and Harrison is no Puka. That puts more of a focus on Wilson against terrible coverage and considering we're going to be hunting for some value, Wilson plays. I'd like to see him with six or seven targets in this one and if that's the case, he should return value for us.  

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Partly sunny
WRElijah MooreKC @ CLE Sun 1:0050004700

Another pay-down for us and while I noted the weather earlier, that shouldn't affect Moore as much. He's the low-aDOT guy who helps move the chains and has the potential to add yards after the catch. He should see some decent volume with the deep-passing getting limited and considering how much Winston is going to be throwing to keep pace with the Chiefs, Moore could be a lock pay-down in cash games for us.

Game Type: CASH
Weather: Cloudy
TETravis KelceKC @ CLE Sun 1:0057006700

They've finally been pricing Kelce down and that's going to open things up for us in our lineups. No, he hasn't been the Kelce we all know and love, but he still ranks in the top-five among all tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points. At a sensible cost, he's worth the look for sure, especially if Mother Nature takes away the deeper passing.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
TETrey McBrideNE @ ARI Sun 4:2560007500

While Kelce sits in the top-five among all those offensive categories for tight ends, McBride is the one who sits at the top. Murray routinely leans on him each week and while he will be facing Kyle Duggar a lot n coverage, you cannot ignore the target share and overall production. At some point, he's gotta catch a touchdown too, right?

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly sunny
TEMark AndrewsBAL @ NYG Sun 1:0041006300

One of the things we've noticed about the split between Andrews and Isaiah Likely is that Likely gets the heavier workload when the ravens are facing a tough run defense and they want to get some extra blocking in front of Derrick Henry. The Giants are not one of those teams, so I expect Andrews to not only play more snaps but also see more targets. New York ranks 30th in DVOA against the tight end, so I'm expecting Andrews to go a third-straight week with a touchdown.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy
TEJake FergusonDAL @ CAR Sun 1:0038005400

The Bengals rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. There is always a lean on CeeDee Lamb, but Ferguson will see his workload increase here in his second full week working with Cooper Rush. It's just too good of a spot here not to use him. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
TEHunter HenryNE @ ARI Sun 4:2543005000

He's seen 26 targets over the last three games and is averaging six catches for 60 yards over that span. He hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 6, but the floor he provides, the cost is spectacular, especially on FanDuel where he is near-minimum. Arizona has been good against the tight end this season and hasn't allowed a lot of fantasy points to the position, but the floor here is great for cash game play. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly sunny
TEStone SmarttTB @ LAC Sun 4:2526004500

We love using Smartt as the pay-own TE this week and will love him even more if McConkey is out or limited. The former WR converted to TE is in a smash-spot this week against the Bucs who rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. No Will Dissly and no Hayden Hurst puts Smartt front-and-center for us this week. He's listed as GPP only for now, but if McConkey is out, I'll use him in cash as well.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Partly sunny
DSTBaltimore RavensBAL @ NYG Sun 1:0039005000

While the Ravens defense has had its struggles this season, there is no better a match-up for them coming off a bye than Tommy DeVito and the Giants. I don't even know if there's anything else to say. If you can pay up for your defense, this is the way.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
DSTDenver BroncosIND @ DEN Sun 4:2532004800

Another defense coming off a bye and this one is playing at home. The Broncos secondary is one of the best in the league and they'll face Anthony Richardson who is still one of the worst and least-consistent passers. Denver has had two weeks to prep for the RPO work we'll see, so I'm expecting a string showing in the Mile High City. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
DSTWashington CommandersWAS @ NO Sun 1:0034004700

The Saints are ushering in the Jake Haener Era, Alvin Kamara is off the injury report but has been battling some illness and a few bumps and bruises. Marshon Lattimore is playing in a revenge-game here and I think the Commanders are in a great spot to get turnovers here. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy
DSTPittsburgh SteelersPIT @ PHI Sun 4:2528004300

I always prefer the Steelers at home but Philly is just across the state and we'll see plenty of Yinzers in the stands. For me, it's all about sacks and turnovers and while yes, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are amazing, so is T.J. Watt. Alex Highsmith ain't too bad either. The pay-down price on DK is tasty. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
DSTCarolina PanthersDAL @ CAR Sun 1:0027003400

If you're basically punting defense, then here are the Panthers facing a declining Cowboys team. In truth, I wasn't really looking at them, but when our D/ST Coach Dan Malin makes a call, I pay attention. Definitely check out his analysis. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

Not sure real number-crunching analysis is needed here, especially after what we watched last week. All will be highly-owned this week and is in a great spot against a mid-level secondary in a game with an over/under of 54.5. He should have all of his receiving weapons back on the field this week and, obviously has the rushing upside we love. We'll need to find some good value plays we can trust in cash because this price tag is going to make things difficult. Added side note, after becoming the first quarterback in history to record a rushing, receiving and passing touchdown in the same game, he could add to his resume this week as he is just two touchdown passes away from becoming the first quarterback in history to reach 25 passing and five rushing touchdowns on five consecutive seasons. Not too shabby. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

The Giants defense is an absolute mess and while I've said all week that Jackson is going to be my favorite GPP quarterback, I am starting to come around to the idea of also using him in cash games. The upside for tournaments is obvious as everyone will be using Derrick Henry this week, but Jackson has been a model of consistency lately, averaging 267 passing yards with a 19:1 TD:INT over his last seven games. Also, over the last four years, coming off a bye, he has averaged 250 passing yards and two touchdowns per game while also rushing for an average of 71 yards per game. If we can get a ceiling game from him for our cash lineups too…? Oh baby!

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

When the Fantasy Alarm QB Guru speaks, we listen. If you've read Jon Impemba's QB Coach, then you saw Tua on the cover and also as his Play of the Week. Tough to argue against three-straight 300-yard games and an average of 325 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to no interceptions over his last four. Houston's defense will be rested coming off the bye week, but they are missing some key components in Azeez Al-Shaair (suspension) and Jalen Pitre (IR).

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

He was actually one of my featured quarterbacks in the DFS Watch List and I haven't wavered in my opinion. The Patriots rank 28th in DVOA against the pass, they allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position and they've struggled to contain mobile QBs. Murray just needs to find his weapons on the opposite side of the field from Christian Gonzalez which shouldn't be difficult to do. Even after a down week with two bad picks and only 16 rushing yards, he still managed more than 20 fantasy points. That's a floor you can trust.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly sunny

If Ladd McConkey is in then I love this play even more. If he is out, I may still build a tournament lineup with him, but I probably won't love it as much. The Tampa secondary is one of the worst when it comes to defending the middle of the field and their corners can be beaten deep as well. If Herbert has McConkey, then I expect him to attack the middle of the field throughout and help move the chains that way. Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are realizing that their ground game isn't all that, so they'll likely keep Herbert throwing in this one. 

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Partly sunny

He was my other featured QB in the Watch List and also the cover boy. You know I'm not a fan of Rodgers or what he's done to the Jets, but he's a stat-padder looing to find himself another job next season. He knows his time with the Jets is over, but if he can finish the season strong, some team in need of a QB will sign him. The Jaguars rank at or near the bottom in every defensive metric against the pass and Rodgers is going to pick their secondary apart in this one.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

The weather is making me a little nervous, but we all know Winston is going to throw the ball 40 times in this one. I do like the Chiefs' pass defense, but this is a volume play and they have softened over the course of the season. The expected rain will probably shorten up the passing game a bit, but Winston should be able to get the ball to Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore on the shorter routes and let them pad his stats with yards after the catch.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy

He's the mayor of Chalk City this week even if our DFS Ownership Projections have him fourth among running backs. I expect the numbers to climb, especially in GPP tournaments, but the casual DFS player will bite the bullet on the price tag and find a way to squeeze him into cash games as well. That actually might work to our advantage because they're going to play some dart-throws that have no business being in a cash lineup. But Henry against the depleted Giants defense is a smash-play for everyone and we all know it. Build your lineups accordingly.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

FANDUEL ONLY – Seattle has a mid-level run defense according to DVOA, but they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game this season. They just haven't allowed a ton of rushing touchdowns. That is likely to change this week facing Jacobs who has been an absolute beast inside the red and green zones this season. In fact, he's seen 24 red zone carries (19 inside the green zone) over the last four games and has eight rushing touchdowns over that span. He sees consistent volume and this game should be competitive so he'll be a factor throughout its entirety.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

Our DFS Ownership Projections have him listed as one of the top-owned running backs, but he's definitely not my favorite. He's listed as both because of the ownership, though. The Titans run defense has been solid all year but where they lack is on the outside zone where Brown thrives the most. They also rank 29th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. The Bengals offense has been on fire over the last five weeks and Brown is very much a part of it. With the Cincinnati defense being as bad as it is, the hope is that the Titans put some points up the other way and this stays competitive. If not, then I'm guessing Khalil Herbert gets the rock in the second half to kill the clock. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

While the Bills defense ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, they are still very vulnerable to strong rushing attacks. They've allowed an average of 127 rushing yards per game over their last five games and coughed up four rushing touchdowns in that span. With the game total sitting at 54.5, we're obviously expecting some fireworks, but before we declare this as the ultimate shootout, understand that Dan Campbell is all about the run still. He will attack on the ground early and try to assert some dominance with his offensive line, so both Gibbs and Montgomery will be used often. He is listed strictly as a GPP play, though, because it's a 50/50 split and should one get hotter than the other, Campbell will likely ride the wave. You also have the potential of the Bills striking first and putting the Lions on their heels, forcing them into more passing. The guys are splitting the targets fairly evenly as well, so which one you use likely comes down to cost. Of course, you could also just use both in a game-stack.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy

Everything I just said up above goes for Montgomery too. I have him listed in the Playbook as well in case you use the Playbook Only feature in our Lineup Generator

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy

If Derrick Henry is the mayor of Chalk City, then Chuba is likely the head of the City Council. If you know local government hierarchy, then you understand. Chuba is going to be highly-owned and probably a lock for all cash-game lineups for me. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game, they've given up the most rushing touchdowns this season and while they rank 13th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, they're still giving up an average of 40 yards per game to them. Dave Canales is doing with Chuba the same thing he did with Rachaad White last year. Volume, volume, volume, and with no Jonathan Brooks to steal goal-line work, he's going to continue to find the end zone.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

The Saints are a classic run-funnel defense. They're allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game, they're allowing 5.0 yards per carry which is highest in the league and they've coughed up 16 rushing touchdowns. They're also giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Maybe Jeremy McNichols gets splashed in a but, but it won't be enough to deter me from using Robinson in cash games this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

As much as we are in on Chuba Hubbard running against Dallas, we are equally excited about using Dowdle against the Panthers. The game should be competitive so there is little concern regarding Dowdle being game-flowed out. He's seeing strong volume since Cooper Rush took over at QB and he's coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts. The Panthers ranks dead-last in DVOA against the run and they're allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back position.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

FANDUEL ONLY – Another bottle of Charbs for the tabes! That's the cry of the #BrunchBoyz, baby! We locked him down last week and with Kenneth Walker again listed as doubtful, we should get our value running back in a great spot as anyone who has followed me knows how much I like getting a Sunday night player into my lineup on FanDuel. He saw 22 carries against a good but not great Arizona run defense and will now face the Packers who have been solid against the run, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, but they also rank 19th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If Charbs is going to see similar volume to last week and any week he's been the starter, he should be an outstanding play. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

Do you need me to drop any analysis here? All a matter of price. The Titans secondary lost L'Jarius Snead a few weeks again and they've been beaten up ever since. They got back Chidobe Awuzie, but he's not going to be able to stop Chase. Dude's a beast. If you can fit his price tag, lock him in.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

So much has been made of this apparent feud between Brown and Jalen Hurts that this play is giving me all the feels of a “squeaky wheel” getting the grease. He'll see plenty of Joey Porter Jr. in coverage, but he doesn't have the physicality to match Brown. DFS Ownership Projections have him under 3% right now, so I'll be making sure he's in some of my GPP lineups for sure. Cash too if I can afford it. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

After a run of eight-straight games with a touchdown, ARSB has been held in check over the last three games, averaging roughly 70 yards per game and no scores. Does that change here against the Bills? A game we know Goff, at some point, is going to have to start throwing? The run-first game-plan of the Lions and the fact that we've seen other pass-catchers featured in recent game has me only looking at him in GPP tournaments, but I will definitely have exposure to him. His ceiling is huge and with the 54.5 game total, he cannot be ignored.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy

One of my absolute favorite GPP plays this week as the Saints secondary is terrible. Not to mention, you know the Commanders receivers have been sitting down with new teammate Marshon Lattimore to get the scoop on all the Saints corners. Alontae Taylor can't hand with McLaurin and neither can Kool-Aid McKinstry. He had 13 catches for 175 yards with three touchdowns in the two games that led into the bye week and should have no trouble carrying that momentum into this week. 

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

FANDUEL ONLY – He's been the Seahawks most dynamic receiver over the last four weeks and should have little to no trouble lighting up slot-corner Javon Bullard. His yards after the catch have been spectacular and Geno Smith should continue to ride him during this match-up. I expect him to be highly-owned which is why I will lean on him in cash games and that ceiling makes him a fantastic GPP tournament play as well. Just check on his ownership before you lock him into GPP tournaments.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

FANDUEL ONLY – Maybe I'm being stubborn, bit with no Jaire Alexander, I am going to use Metcalf in some GPP lineups. His ceiling is too high to ignore and while yes, he's failed to deliver over the last four weeks following the Seahawks bye, he is walking into Sunday's game without an injury designation and with full practices under his belt for the first time since Week 7. Ownership will be lower than it should be and I am 100% here for that.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

Since arriving in New York, Adams has been Rodgers' favorite target. He and Garrett Wilson have played the same number of snaps, but Adams has seen eight more targets. The DVOA numbers show the Jaguars struggle against the WR2 more than the WR1, but we cannot ignore the fact that a stat-padding Rodgers will likely lean on the his favorites more as he looks to finish the season string. I will be building lineups with Adams only, with Wilson only and with both in a stack if I can. Deciphering which one will pop the most might be difficult, but each should see enough volume in this one to warrant a spot in both cash and GPP lineups. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

Like I said, the DVOA numbers point towards Wilson being the stringer play on paper, but Rodgers still favors his buddies. Again, he and Adams are playing the same snaps and their target shares are pretty similar. Against the Jags, you can use either guy and probably still be happy. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

Target monster, amirite? In the six games leading up to the bye, Sutton was averaging 9.5 targets per game and delivering an average of seven catches for 94.8 yards each week. He has three 100-yard efforts and three touchdowns in that span and should be able to deliver against a struggling Colts secondary. I've said it before – Joe Lombardi's offense funnels targets to the X-receiver, so expect Sutton to continue to produce at a high level.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

With 15 targets over the last two games, we know there's going to be a continued lean on Shakir. Yes, Amari Cooper saw more targets last week, but Shakir has been a bit of a security blanket for Allen. He is also matching up against slot-corner Amik Robertson who is, for lack of another way to say it, not good. I think there's another lean on Shakir to help move the chains this week and he should add significant yards after the catch. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

While Shakir might be my favorite Bills receiver for cash games, we cannot ignore 14 targets for Cooper last week. He is a fantastic downfield threat as well as a strong option on intermediate routes. He's healthy, he's playing an increased snap share and his price tag just might be too good to pass up. 

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy

Considering the volume he sees, the price tag is a nice bargain. It's especially nicer this week facing one of the absolute worst secondaries in the league. Having Will Levis as his QB is a bit of a bummer, but head coach and play-caller Brian Callahan knows Lou Anarumo and this Bengals defense better than anyone. He'll find ways to exploit the match-ups and get Ridley into some great situations.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

Since returning from injury, the target share has gone from 11.4% to 21.7% to 32.4%. He is clearly Bryce Young's favorite target and head coach Dave Canales has obviously instructed his quarterback to lean on the veteran. He's got the 10th-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards and 15th-most fantasy points among all wide receivers over the last three weeks and should be able to exploit the holes in the Dallas zone coverage. if the Cowboys continue to use two high safeties as they usually do, Thielen should have a big week.

Game Type: CASH
Weather: Cloudy

Any chance you caught my recent WR Sleepers video on the Fantasy Alarm YouTube page or my socials? I'm a big fan of Kyler Murray this week and while I can appreciate that Marvin Harrison Jr. is the alpha receiver in this offense, I also expect him to see a lot of Christian Gonzalez who has help opposing WR1s to fewer than 50 receiving yards in five out of the last six games. The only receiver to best him in that span was Puka Nacua and Harrison is no Puka. That puts more of a focus on Wilson against terrible coverage and considering we're going to be hunting for some value, Wilson plays. I'd like to see him with six or seven targets in this one and if that's the case, he should return value for us.  

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Partly sunny

Another pay-down for us and while I noted the weather earlier, that shouldn't affect Moore as much. He's the low-aDOT guy who helps move the chains and has the potential to add yards after the catch. He should see some decent volume with the deep-passing getting limited and considering how much Winston is going to be throwing to keep pace with the Chiefs, Moore could be a lock pay-down in cash games for us.

Game Type: CASH
Weather: Cloudy

They've finally been pricing Kelce down and that's going to open things up for us in our lineups. No, he hasn't been the Kelce we all know and love, but he still ranks in the top-five among all tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points. At a sensible cost, he's worth the look for sure, especially if Mother Nature takes away the deeper passing.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

While Kelce sits in the top-five among all those offensive categories for tight ends, McBride is the one who sits at the top. Murray routinely leans on him each week and while he will be facing Kyle Duggar a lot n coverage, you cannot ignore the target share and overall production. At some point, he's gotta catch a touchdown too, right?

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly sunny

One of the things we've noticed about the split between Andrews and Isaiah Likely is that Likely gets the heavier workload when the ravens are facing a tough run defense and they want to get some extra blocking in front of Derrick Henry. The Giants are not one of those teams, so I expect Andrews to not only play more snaps but also see more targets. New York ranks 30th in DVOA against the tight end, so I'm expecting Andrews to go a third-straight week with a touchdown.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Cloudy

The Bengals rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. There is always a lean on CeeDee Lamb, but Ferguson will see his workload increase here in his second full week working with Cooper Rush. It's just too good of a spot here not to use him. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

He's seen 26 targets over the last three games and is averaging six catches for 60 yards over that span. He hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 6, but the floor he provides, the cost is spectacular, especially on FanDuel where he is near-minimum. Arizona has been good against the tight end this season and hasn't allowed a lot of fantasy points to the position, but the floor here is great for cash game play. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly sunny

We love using Smartt as the pay-own TE this week and will love him even more if McConkey is out or limited. The former WR converted to TE is in a smash-spot this week against the Bucs who rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. No Will Dissly and no Hayden Hurst puts Smartt front-and-center for us this week. He's listed as GPP only for now, but if McConkey is out, I'll use him in cash as well.

Game Type: GPP
Weather: Partly sunny

While the Ravens defense has had its struggles this season, there is no better a match-up for them coming off a bye than Tommy DeVito and the Giants. I don't even know if there's anything else to say. If you can pay up for your defense, this is the way.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

Another defense coming off a bye and this one is playing at home. The Broncos secondary is one of the best in the league and they'll face Anthony Richardson who is still one of the worst and least-consistent passers. Denver has had two weeks to prep for the RPO work we'll see, so I'm expecting a string showing in the Mile High City. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

The Saints are ushering in the Jake Haener Era, Alvin Kamara is off the injury report but has been battling some illness and a few bumps and bruises. Marshon Lattimore is playing in a revenge-game here and I think the Commanders are in a great spot to get turnovers here. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly cloudy

I always prefer the Steelers at home but Philly is just across the state and we'll see plenty of Yinzers in the stands. For me, it's all about sacks and turnovers and while yes, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are amazing, so is T.J. Watt. Alex Highsmith ain't too bad either. The pay-down price on DK is tasty. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

If you're basically punting defense, then here are the Panthers facing a declining Cowboys team. In truth, I wasn't really looking at them, but when our D/ST Coach Dan Malin makes a call, I pay attention. Definitely check out his analysis. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy