NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 13 Thursday Night Football Featuring the Cowboys & Seahawks

We’re already starting Week 13, and as they say, time flies when you’re having fun! The Dallas Cowboys are kicking off their third game in 11 days, but they’re still very much favored in this home matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas is on a 13 game home winning streak, and against a free-falling Seahawks team, I don’t think that gets broken tonight. With a great game comes a lot of juicy stats, so let’s look at what we have going on tonight.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Thursday Night Football
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Since the bye week, Prescott has been red hot, throwing for at least two touchdowns in every single game since. Whatever was going on between him and CeeDee Lamb has clearly been rectified, and Mike McCarthy’s whole philosophy of “we’re going to run because we score too fast” has been thrown out the window. The Seahawks have allowed an average of over 230 passing yards per game, and with the recent red zone conversion percent that Dallas has been able to complete, I think this number is way higher. It’s not a great multiplier, but it does seem solid given recent events.
Pick: Dak Prescott more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.37x)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
The Cowboys defense is very good, but they are exploitable out of the slot. Jourdan Lewis, Dallas’ slot corner, just can’t always hang with the speedy receivers, and Smith-Njigba should thrive against him. With Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf going up against DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, Geno Smith may have nowhere else to go but the tight ends and the slot, so JSN should be able to hit this mark easily. Last week, Lewis gave up 100 yards to Curtis Samuel in what was otherwise a very good game defensively, and in a negative game script, expect the Seahawks to throw more than they usually do.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than 43.5 receiving yards (1.78x)
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Interception props can be flukey, but with how the Dallas defense is playing combined with Geno Smith’s injury, this one is too good to pass up. DaRon Bland has been a ball hawk this season, and anything going his way is in danger of being picked. Smith has also thrown for eight interceptions already this year, and in what should be a very negative game script, more passing attempts means more chances for a pick. He’s going to be pressured into making bad throws, and with everyone in the Cowboys secondary lurking, this is ripe for the taking.
Pick: Geno Smith more than .5 interceptions (1.57x)
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Player News
Broncos signed No. 20 overall pick CB Jahdae Barron to a four-year contract.
Barron is one of the last first-round picks to sign, getting a four-year, $18.07 million deal with a fifth-year option. He joins a secondary with star CB Patrick Surtain leading the group. His last season out of Texas, Barron won the Jim Thorpe award for best defensive back and now is slated for the Broncos’ slot role. This leaves the Bengals’ Shemar Stewart as the last first-round pick unsigned. The Broncos have just RB R.J. Harvey unsigned among their rookie class - he is one of the 30 second-rounders unsigned due to contract guarantee disputes.
Bills placed EDGE Landon Jackson on the PUP list.
Jackson will be able to be activated off the PUP list at any time during training camp, but apparently will not be ready as camp starts. If he remains on the PUP list through the 53-man roster deadline, he’ll be locked into missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season.
Falcons OC Zac Robinson said Michael Penix Jr. “opens up a different avenue within the offense.”
This is in the context of stretching the field a little more than the Falcons did in 2024, something they struggled to do at times with Kirk Cousins under center. The Athletic’s Josh Kendall also adds “The coaching staff won’t ask Penix to curtail his aggressiveness. In fact, it’s the trait they are most excited about.” A more balanced offensive approach could raise all ships in Atlanta — and it’s something that might be necessary for them as they try to stave off regression with almost no new players added to the room.
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes if Najee Harris misses time in training camp, the possibility of Omarion Hampton becoming the lead back is “even more likely.”
“Hampton has a chance to be an immediate difference-maker in the run game, a player with the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball. And he could be getting the bulk of the first-team work early in camp,” Popper continues. This is hardly an endorsement that Hampton is going to be RB1 in Los Angeles from Week 1, but Harris’ eye injury has at least complicated things early in training camp. There’s a non-zero chance that Hampton takes the baton and runs with it before Harris is ready to come back.
ESPN’s D.J. Bien-Aime reports C.J. Stroud worked on his speed to help him evade defenders in the pocket.
Stroud attributes his shoulder soreness from early OTAs and minicamps that kept him from throwing the ball to “extra work” with the Texans training staff this offseason, which is the main reason this is notable. “I’ve been working really hard on getting my body right -- losing body fat, trying to be faster, stronger,” Stroud told Bien-Aime. Stroud is an interesting QB2 this offseason, perhaps someone who could get back to QB1 status if everything clicks in Nick Caley’s new offense. The price makes him an ideal superflex investment at the moment.
The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue believes rookie second-round TE Terrance Ferguson is a potential breakout player in 2025.
“To be clear, Rams coach Sean McVay finally has to commit to a significant increase in 12 personnel for Ferguson, a rookie second-round pick, to truly emerge this season. But the offense has trended that way at times, especially last season,” Rodrigue adds. It would be surprising for Ferguson to emerge immediately, but perhaps the Rams are getting ready to zig their offense in a new direction in 2025. The rookie tight end is lightly-drafted and best-approached as a dynasty asset, but it should at least be on the radar that he produces sooner than expected.