NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 13 Thursday Night Football Featuring the Cowboys & Seahawks
We’re already starting Week 13, and as they say, time flies when you’re having fun! The Dallas Cowboys are kicking off their third game in 11 days, but they’re still very much favored in this home matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas is on a 13 game home winning streak, and against a free-falling Seahawks team, I don’t think that gets broken tonight. With a great game comes a lot of juicy stats, so let’s look at what we have going on tonight.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Thursday Night Football
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Since the bye week, Prescott has been red hot, throwing for at least two touchdowns in every single game since. Whatever was going on between him and CeeDee Lamb has clearly been rectified, and Mike McCarthy’s whole philosophy of “we’re going to run because we score too fast” has been thrown out the window. The Seahawks have allowed an average of over 230 passing yards per game, and with the recent red zone conversion percent that Dallas has been able to complete, I think this number is way higher. It’s not a great multiplier, but it does seem solid given recent events.
Pick: Dak Prescott more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.37x)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
The Cowboys defense is very good, but they are exploitable out of the slot. Jourdan Lewis, Dallas’ slot corner, just can’t always hang with the speedy receivers, and Smith-Njigba should thrive against him. With Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf going up against DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, Geno Smith may have nowhere else to go but the tight ends and the slot, so JSN should be able to hit this mark easily. Last week, Lewis gave up 100 yards to Curtis Samuel in what was otherwise a very good game defensively, and in a negative game script, expect the Seahawks to throw more than they usually do.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than 43.5 receiving yards (1.78x)
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Interception props can be flukey, but with how the Dallas defense is playing combined with Geno Smith’s injury, this one is too good to pass up. DaRon Bland has been a ball hawk this season, and anything going his way is in danger of being picked. Smith has also thrown for eight interceptions already this year, and in what should be a very negative game script, more passing attempts means more chances for a pick. He’s going to be pressured into making bad throws, and with everyone in the Cowboys secondary lurking, this is ripe for the taking.
Pick: Geno Smith more than .5 interceptions (1.57x)
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Player News
Ravens signed DT John Jenkins to a one-year contract.
The 35-year-old 13th-year pro slides in as a 1-for-1 Michael Pierce replacement after the former Raven retired in March. Although strictly a two-down player, Jenkins actually played a new career high 606 snaps for the Raiders last season. He probably won’t reach that total in Baltimore, but he should see plenty of work as a run-stopper.
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.
Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh reports the team has called the Saints about a possible trade for Chris Olave.
According to Farabaugh, one source described the Steelers’ inquiry as “a due diligence call” while adding that a trade “doesn’t seem likely to happen” at this time. The Steelers trade George Pickens to the Cowboys just over a week ago, and are now looking at DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, and Calvin Austin as their top options in three receiver sets. Of those three, Metcalf is the only receiver with notable NFL success, while Wilson effectively redshirted his rookie season due to injuries. Olave caught 32 passes for 400 yards and one touchdown for the Saints last season, but missed nine games due to multiple concussions he suffered. The four-year receiver posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his first two years in the league, and would provide an immediate upgrade to an underwhelming Steelers receiving corps. Farabaugh reports that in addition to a trade being unlikely, that the Saints do “not seem interested in trading Olave” at this time. The Saints picked up Olave’s fifth-year option last month, and will likely look to extend him in the not too distant future.