NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 13 Thursday Night Football Featuring the Cowboys & Seahawks
We’re already starting Week 13, and as they say, time flies when you’re having fun! The Dallas Cowboys are kicking off their third game in 11 days, but they’re still very much favored in this home matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas is on a 13 game home winning streak, and against a free-falling Seahawks team, I don’t think that gets broken tonight. With a great game comes a lot of juicy stats, so let’s look at what we have going on tonight.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Thursday Night Football
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Since the bye week, Prescott has been red hot, throwing for at least two touchdowns in every single game since. Whatever was going on between him and CeeDee Lamb has clearly been rectified, and Mike McCarthy’s whole philosophy of “we’re going to run because we score too fast” has been thrown out the window. The Seahawks have allowed an average of over 230 passing yards per game, and with the recent red zone conversion percent that Dallas has been able to complete, I think this number is way higher. It’s not a great multiplier, but it does seem solid given recent events.
Pick: Dak Prescott more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.37x)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
The Cowboys defense is very good, but they are exploitable out of the slot. Jourdan Lewis, Dallas’ slot corner, just can’t always hang with the speedy receivers, and Smith-Njigba should thrive against him. With Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf going up against DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, Geno Smith may have nowhere else to go but the tight ends and the slot, so JSN should be able to hit this mark easily. Last week, Lewis gave up 100 yards to Curtis Samuel in what was otherwise a very good game defensively, and in a negative game script, expect the Seahawks to throw more than they usually do.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than 43.5 receiving yards (1.78x)
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Interception props can be flukey, but with how the Dallas defense is playing combined with Geno Smith’s injury, this one is too good to pass up. DaRon Bland has been a ball hawk this season, and anything going his way is in danger of being picked. Smith has also thrown for eight interceptions already this year, and in what should be a very negative game script, more passing attempts means more chances for a pick. He’s going to be pressured into making bad throws, and with everyone in the Cowboys secondary lurking, this is ripe for the taking.
Pick: Geno Smith more than .5 interceptions (1.57x)
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Player News
Browns released EDGE Ogbo Okoronkwo.
The team signed K Andre Szmyt in a corresponding move. Okoronkwo was reportedly available via trade ahead of the draft but nothing came of it. He played a pass-rush specialist role in Cleveland last year and tallied three sacks. He should be able to find a similar gig before training camp, but a starting role is likely out of the picture.
Bucs signed GM Jason Licht to a multi-year contract extension.
As ESPN’s Adam Schefter noted, Licht is the league’s fifth-longest tenured traditional general manager, though a few de facto managers have been around longer. Licht has held the title since 2014. The early years were ugly for his front office with just one winning campaign through five years. Licht then signed the greatest quarterback of all time and instantly won a Super Bowl. Licht might not deserve loads of credit for signing Tom Brady. Any manager would do so in a heartbeat. But his post-Brady era has been excellent. The move to bring in journeyman Baker Mayfield has paid off tenfold and the team has won the NFC South in each of the past three seasons. The next step will be an NFC Championship berth as the team has just one playoff win across those three outings.
Bucs signed head coach Todd Bowles to a multi-year contract extension.
General manager Jason Licht also got a new deal. ESPN’s Adam Schefter didn’t have the exact details of the contracts, but it’s safe to assume both men will be in Tampa Bay for a long time. Bowles spent three years as the Bucs’ defensive coordinator and won a Super Bowl in the role during Tom Brady’s run with the team. Head coach Bruce Arians retired ahead of the 2022 season and Bowles was promoted in his place. He has a 27-24 record since taking over with playoff appearances in all three seasons. The Bucs have yet to make a deep playoff run, but the team was not supposed to be this good when they signed journeyman Baker Mayfield to compete with Kyle Trask for the starting job coming out of the brief Brady era. Bowles has kept the train on the tracks and should be in Tampa Bay for a while if he keeps the team in the NFC hunt every year.
Saints QB Tyler Shough said a slow start is “not going to faze [him]” as a starter.
Shough is the frontrunner for the Saints’ starting job and believes he can work through adversity to take on the opportunity. When Derek Carr retired on May 10, Shough said head coach Kellen Moore gave him “a bit of a heads-up”, preparing him for the opportunity to take the reigns. Though he will turn 26-years-old as a rookie, Shough’s college career working through injuries equips him with experience. He will still need to earn the starting job, but Shough is the favorite and is prepared to weather a storm of struggles. He will be a borderline QB2 in SuperFlex leagues as the starter.
Seahawks signed CB Shaquill Griffin, formerly of the Vikings.
It’s a homecoming for Griffin, who played four years in Seattle after being drafted in the third round in 2017. Griffin has sinced bounced around the league with stops in Jacksonville, Houston, Carolina, and most recently Minnesota. He appeared in all 17 games for the Vikings in 2023 and totaled six pass breakups with two interceptions. Griffin was a top flight corner in his first Seattle stint and earned a Pro Bowl nod for his efforts in 2019. While he’s more of a rotational corner at this point in his career, his return is a good fit for all parties.
Rams waived WR Quintez Cephus.
The former fifth-round pick is most famous for receiving an indefinite ban in 2023 due to betting on NFL contests. He was reinstated after a year and had brief stints on the Bills and Texans’ rosters during the offseason. LA signed him to their practice squad in 2024 but he never appeared in a game for the team. Cephus will be fighting for a roster spot this summer if he signs elsewhere.