NFL Week 3 brings us a Monday doubleheader which means two bites at the apple for our NFL best bets for Jaguars vs. Bills MNF. 

The first game kicks off at 7:30pm ET in Orchard Park as the Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars. For those making NFL predictions, it’s business as usual for Josh Allen and the Bills, but there’s likely a greater sense of urgency for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars as an 0-3 start to the season makes the road to the playoffs pretty rough and rocky. 

 

 

 

Where does that put us for our NFL best bets for Jaguars vs. Bills MNF? Keep reading and find out!

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Monday Night Football, 9/23

In looking at the head-to-head matchups between these two clubs, the Jaguars actually have the advantage. Jacksonville has won four of the last six, including the last two which are the most recent. In fact, the last time these teams played each other was last year when the Jags won 25-20. 

Surprised? Maybe. Does it change the way you’re making your NFL picks, especially knowing the Jaguars were the underdogs in each of the last two matchups? This season, the Bills are 2-0 straight-up but 1-1 against the spread having failed to cover the spread in Week 1 against Arizona. 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars, 0-2 straight-up, are also 1-1 against the spread, getting the cover in Week 1 against the Dolphins but failing to win, let alone cover, last week against the Browns. Obviously not a lot of data here, but we’ve taken a long look at both teams and made some NFL predictions surrounding game flow, so let’s look at that before we lay out our NFL best bets for Jaguars vs. Bills MNF. 

 

 

 

Monday Night Football Prediction: Monday, September 23rd 

After watching James Cook dominate for the Bills last week, the inclination might be to look that way again, but the Jaguars’ run defense has not been the issue. Early DVOA numbers should be taken with a grain of salt considering the small sample size, but even the raw numbers show Jacksonville is struggling with their pass coverage. 

Through two weeks, the Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most passing yards and third-most passing yards per game. They’ve only given up one touchdown through the air so far, but given the weak coverage, that seems like a stat waiting to be corrected, especially when Allen is spreading the ball around so much, the Jaguars are going to have a tough time figuring out where the passes are headed.

On the other side, the Jaguars are really struggling on offense, averaging just 15 points per game. They’re going to need a balanced approach here as the Bills defense is solid, though not impenetrable. In fact, the Bills have allowed 131.5 rushing yards per game, so expect to see a strong dose of Travis Etienne early on in this game. If they can establish even just a half-decent ground game, things should open up in the middle of the field for tight end Brenton Strange (filling in for the still-injured Evan Engram) and maybe even Christian Kirk. 

Remember, Matt Milano being out weakens the linebacker coverage in the short-passing game. If the Jaguars can get that going, maybe it opens things up further downfield. After all, that’s why they drafted Brian Thomas and signed Gabe Davis, who might be looking for a little revenge against his former club.

Those should be the game plans heading into the game and it will be up to the defensive coordinators to make the necessary adjustments. Our NFL predictions don’t exactly see this game being a back-and-forth, but there is some potential for scoring. How does this affect our NFL picks? Scroll down and you’ll see our full NFL best bets for Jaguars vs. Bills MNF.

 

 

 

Jaguars vs. Bills Best Bet: Monday, September 23rd  

After looking at the data history and the potential game flow, it’s time to lock in our NFL best bets for Jaguars vs. Bills MNF. We’ve got two teams moving in opposite directions right now to open the season, but it does seem a little odd that the Bills are only favored by 5.5 points at home. It actually opened at Bills -4.5 and the public money has come in heavily on Buffalo, enough to bump it up another point. 

So, the question I always ask myself – if the Jaguars are so bad and so lost, why is the spread so tight? Last year, the Bills were 9-2 at home, but just 5-6 against the spread and have failed to cover as a favorite in 11 of their last 17. Couple that with the Jaguars covering the spread in 10 of their last 13 road games and we might have a little fun with our NFL picks and fade the public. 

Typically, when championing the underdog, we expect to see some scoring and, like the public, look to pick the over. This game opened up at 49 and has dipped all the way to the current total of 45.5 which seems aggressively low. 

But I’m not 100-percent sold on this Buffalo offense and look for the Jaguars defense to step up their game in primetime. My NFL predictions have me fading the public again.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/23

**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

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