Jared Goff is two wins away from punching his ticket to the NFL Hall of Fame. You are reading that correctly. The quarterback that was an easy target for the media, given up on by the team that drafted him, traded for an older quarterback to one of the most losing franchises of all-time, and for the most part written off by both the NFL and the fantasy football community. Yet here he is two wins away from being a guarantee for the NFL Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.

Some could be saying, two wins... how so? It’s quite simple really. With one win he does something only four other players have accomplished in the last fifty-eight years of NFL football. If Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions march into California and claw and bite and fight their way to a victory, J. Goff will become just the fifth quarterback to lead two franchises to a Super Bowl. Of the four that have accomplished this amazing feat, three are in the hall of fame. Why would three be in, and not four? The answer isn’t too difficult. Listed by the most recent appearance the four quarterbacks are Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, and Craig Morton.

Tom Brady, once eligible, will be a first ballot Hall of Fame member. He was the starting quarterback for both the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and led them both to Super Bowl victories. He also had three Super Bowl losses in addition to his six wins with the Patriots and one with the Buccaneers. He has several records to his credit, and is widely considered the greatest player of all-time.

Peyton Manning led the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos to multiple Super Bowls. He is the only quarterback to win and lose a Super Bowl for multiple organizations. Manning is a part of the NFL Hall of Fame 2021 class, and broke several passing records in addition to winning Super Bowls. He was also a first overall pick that lived up to high expectations from the media, fans, and his family.

Kurt Warner went undrafted in 1994 and was brought to the Green Bay Packers training camp, but did not make the roster. He eventually signed with the St. Louis Rams, and along with Hall of Fame Head Coach, Dick Vermeil, led the Rams to their first Super Bowl victory. He played one year with the New York Giants before signing with the Arizona Cardinals. He, along with wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, took the Cardinals to the franchise’s only Super Bowl appearance. The Cardinals lost in a thrilling match to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Warner played well and is a member of the 2017 Hall of Fame class.

Craig Morton was the fifth overall draft pick in the 1965 draft by the Dallas Cowboys. He backed up Don Meredith and alternated starting with Roger Staubach. He was the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl V, which was the Cowboys’ first. He was the backup for the Cowboys in Super Bowl VI, and ultimately released by Dallas. He played three seasons with the New York Giants, similar to Warner, and then was traded to the Denver Broncos. He led the Denver Broncos on an improbable Super Bowl run in 1977. It was the franchise’s first Super Bowl, and Morton became the first quarterback to start for two different franchises in the Super Bowl. He lost Super Bowl V to Don Shula and the Baltimore Colts, then lost Super Bowl XII to his old coach and team Tom Landry and the Dallas Cowboys. Morton played until 1982 (an eighteen year career), had his best season in 1981, was the 1977 Comeback Player of the Year, 1977 AFC player of the year, led two teams to their first Super Bowl, but did not win one as a starter...and he is not in the Hall of Fame.

It is difficult to overstate how much bearing a Super Bowl win has on a quarterback's legacy. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Brett Favre, Joe Namath... these quarterbacks are heroes to franchises and fanbases, most are in or will be in the Hall of Fame... and they all won a Super Bowl. They have several heartbreaking playoff losses, and disappointing seasons, but they have lifted the Lombardi Trophy. Wins are not a quarterback stat, but they have a central role and direct correlation with the team’s outcome and the quarterback’s legacy is tied to winning the big game.

This NFC Conference Championship will dictate how Jared Goff is viewed going forward. Naturally if he takes the Detroit Lions to their first Super Bowl, he will forever be loved by the city and Lions fans everywhere and likely even be admitted to the Lions Ring of Honor. He would join the four gentlemen mentioned that have achieved the rare feat of starting in the Super Bowl for two different franchises. If he wins the Super Bowl, he becomes what Corey Seager is to the Texas Rangers, what Jonathan Marchessault is for the Las Vegas Golden Knights, and what Nikola Jokic is for the Denver Nuggets. The pinnacle player of a team that elevates their city to new heights, delivering a city and franchise's first championship.

So that is the romantic story about Goff but what about the numbers to back it up? To begin with he has 564 passing yards, three touchdown passes, and a 75.65% completion percentage in this playoff run. He has five playoff wins, the most among active NFC quarterbacks. He has 1,864 passing yards with seven touchdowns in eight playoff games. He has over 30,000 passing yards, is a three-time Pro Bowl honoree, a conference champion, and winner of the 2017 PFWA Most Improved Player. All that is missing from J. Goff’s resume is a Super Bowl Championship. Jared Goff grew up in Novato, California which is only an hour from Santa Clara where today’s game between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers is being played. He has stated that he bought several tickets for family and friends, and realizes how special this moment could be for him and those that care about him. The Lions are seven-point underdogs, and most of the talk has been on how poor the Lions secondary is, but the 49ers secondary is not elite either. San Fransisco’s defense has allowed 3,949 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns, both around average. Regardless of the game script, or how the game begins, Goff has an opportunity for an amazing game. If the Lions are ahead early, it is either because of long, sustaining drives by Goff or a pass that was taken for a touchdown. If they are playing from behind Goff will be forced to throw more, which will boost his numbers. Below are some favorable betting props on Jared Goff who is staring down not only a second Super Bowl appearance, but a Hall of Fame nomination also.

 

JARED GOFF PLAYER PROPS

OVER 1.5 PASSING TDS (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is a prop that can be achieved regardless of game flow or script. One big pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams, or Sam LaPorta and it could be housed. If they are behind, they will need points and to move the ball quickly.

UNDER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

He has yet to throw one this playoff. Well executed plays, quick passes in the flats, exposing man coverage... He knows a turnover puts his team in a bad situation, and he has played in big games before.

OVER 257.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is probably the safest bet of three mentioned, as he has gone over this in both playoff games this year. A catch in the flat from St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs for fifty yards and this prop hits with ease. If they are playing from behind this will become an easily attainable prop due to the 49ers playing coverage/prevent defense.

PARLAY: OVER 1.5 PASSING TD’s, OVER 257.5 PASSING YARDS, OVER 23.5 COMPLETIONS, UNDER 36.5 PASSING ATTEMPTS (+1000 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This parlay is not dependent on a spread or moneyline and works well with both game scripts. There is a 30% boost on DK and probably more boost on other sportsbooks for today’s games.It is a move that boosts it to +1300. The boost maxes the bet at $25, but would return $350 on a $25 bet. This is just one scenario for today’s NFC Championship game, but Jared Goff has an opportunity to do something special. Bet with your money how you deem appropriate, but it appears these lines are at an advantage as they can work with the Lions winning or losing.

Thank you for reading.

BET SMART, BE LUCKY – IGGY

*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise.