There is nothing more comforting than having an elite quarterback. That goes for your favorite NFL team as well as your fantasy football team. With the right guy running the show, you feel like you can win any matchup on any given Sunday. All your other worries feel a little easier to deal with when the most important position in football is covered.

So you’d think it would be easy to just take one early in fantasy football drafts and relax. But it’s not that simple. The nature of the game dictates that the quarterback position is NOT the most valuable position in the game (unless it’s a unique multi-quarterback format like Superflex). In single quarterback leagues, the top quarterback often doesn’t get drafted until the third round. And, if you go that route, not only do you need to make the decision to draft a quarterback early, but you also need to decide which one to draft

This year, it seems pretty clear that a top tier is emerging in the fantasy football quarterback rankings. A “core four” if you will. In terms of consensus rankings and ADP, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts are almost always the first four QBs taken. They offer the best unique mix of solid floor and game-breaking upside, thanks in large part to their willingness to run. 

Quarterback isn’t like running back or wide receiver, where you can take one star RB then just take another next round. You can never have too many. It’s generally not a wise play at QB though because you can only start one QB. If you are drafting an elite QB, you have to pick one and commit. So today,  I’m going to see if we can help make that decision easier by going over the pros and cons of each!

 

 

 

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Pros

Josh Allen is a touchdown machine. His 65 rushing touchdowns through his first seven years are the most a quarterback has ever had through their first seven years. Jalen Hurts (55) and Cam Newton (54) are close behind him then no one else has more than 33. When they get down to the red area, the RPO with Josh Allen and James Cook creates a nightmare for defenses.

Allen also just had his “cleanest” season as a starting quarterback. He cut way down on the “arm punt” interceptions with only six. In fact, he just registered the lowest totals in interceptions, sacks (14), and fumbles (5) of his entire career. That’s a big reason why he was the MVP of the league. 

But here’s the most important stat for Josh Allen for fantasy football. Over the last five straight years, he has never finished worse than QB2. That level of consistency is hard to come by. And it’s the reason he’s often the first QB off the board. 

 

Josh Allen Cons

The number one con for Josh Allen actually comes from the mouth of Josh Allen himself. He has told us multiple times now that he knows he will need to run less as he gets older. That article represents the most recent time he said it and he did run less - six rush attempts per game is the fewest he’s ever had in his seven-year career. 

And that’s not just something he decided on. It is fairly rare for quarterbacks 28 or older to run over 100 times in a season. Allen last year, with his 102 attempts, just became only the third quarterback to do it along with Michael Vick and Cam Newton. And we all saw how Cam Newton’s health deteriorated as he continued to run hard into his 30s. Mobile QBs age on a similar scale to running backs unless they make the transition towards a pocket passer - which someone like Russell Wilson successfully did around Allen’s age.

It’s also worth noting that the Bills now have a better defense and run game than they have in recent years. They also no longer have the star power of Stefon Diggs. That saw Allen throw for the fewest yards and touchdowns he’s thrown for over the last five years. His 3,731 yards is the first time in a half decade he didn’t throw for at least 4,200. 

 

 

 

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Pros

Lamar Jackson is the best pure runner of the group. Allen might have him in the touchdown category but Jackson’s 59.9 yards rushing yards per game is the most ever for a quarterback in the NFL. The only other QBs who have averaged more than 50 yards per game in their career are Jayden Daniels (52.4) and Justin Fields (50.2). At 28 years old, Lamar Jackson not only has the most career rush attempts of a quarterback ever, but his 1,014 are also almost 200 more than the next highest in Cam Newton (828).  

Lamar Jackson isn’t just a gimmick quarterback either. Last year he also threw for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He could have easily won his third MVP award with those statistics and he finished as the QB1 overall in fantasy - something he’s now done twice. There’s really been no material change in the Ravens offense from last year to this year, so the conditions that led to that success are still there. 

 

Lamar Jackson Cons

There is one glaring con for fantasy football for Lamar Jackson that the other mobile quarterbacks don’t have to deal with. And that is “King” Derrick Henry. When you have a 6’3”, 247 pound monster in the backfield, you have no reason not to give him the ball at the goal line. And that’s exactly what they did, as this tweet illustrates. 

As you can see, every other QB we’ll be discussing today at least split the carries and touchdowns 50/50 inside the five-yard line. Not the Ravens. Derrick Henry got all of them. And Lamar Jackson got zero.

The other issue for Lamar is the same as the one for Josh Allen in terms of age. They were both drafted the same year. So Lamar Jackson will attempt to join that exclusive club this year of QBs 28 and older to run 100+ times. Lamar Jackson has already missed significant time in a couple of his seasons with knee and ankle issues. Maybe guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are “built different”, as the kids say, but running the ball as much as they do gets more and more dangerous the closer you are to 30. 

 

 

 

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels Pros

Jayden Daniels burst onto the scene in his rookie year, finishing as a top-five quarterback in fantasy. His 148 rush attempts was second among NFL quarterbacks only behind Jalen Hurts’s 150. And his 891 yards were second behind only Lamar Jackson.

We knew that Daniels could run but he also put up respectable passing numbers as well. His 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, and 9 interceptions with a 100.1 passer rating was not far off Josh Allen’s line of 3,371/8/6/101.4. Both Allen and Daniels didn’t really play in the final game of the season but Daniels also missed almost all of the Week 7 game against Carolina. The Commanders bolstered the offensive line, added another pass-catcher in Deebo Samuel, and were able to retain one of his favorite targets in Zach Ertz. Once Terry McLaurin’s contract situation is squared away, they should be good to go.

As Jayden Daniels was a rookie last year, he just turned 24 in December. That means he doesn’t have any of the age concerns that guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are facing. He’s free to “use his youth” as Josh Allen discussed in this article from 2023 when he was once again discussing the topic of running less and sliding more.

 

Jayden Daniels Cons

The number one con here is obvious. Regression. One season is a very small sample size of football. It’s not like we have five straight seasons of Josh Allen finishing as a top-two fantasy QB. We have one season of a player finishing as the QB5. Drafting him in the top four is naturally betting on him to take a step forward in year two. But some guys, like C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love, take a step back.

The key to possible regression that he now has tape out there for reams to study. These are multi-billion dollar organizations. You better believe every team is scouring the tape for tells that Daniels might be giving away or tricks that might have worked the first time around but won’t the second. Daniels needs to make sure his game is airtight so that teams can’t exploit him this time around.

The weapons for Jayden Daniels are also just a little bit shaky here. Terry McLaurin is currently holding out for a new contract and he’ll turn 30 in December. Zach Ertz is 34. Austin Ekeler is 30. Deebo Samuel is 29 and there have been some questions in camp about his conditioning. Jayden Daniels only had one game last year throwing for 300 yards so, if he wants to be QB1 overall, he needs his weapons to help him elevate that part of this game. 

 

 

 

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts Pros

Remember the chart we posted in the Lamar Jackson section? The one that shows the carries inside the five-yard line. When you look at Jalen Hurts on that chart, you can see the impact of the Tush Push. The league made a modest attempt to ban the unstoppable player but fell short. Because of that, if I had to bet on any player in the league to score double digit touchdowns, I would pick Jalen Hurts.

Jalen Hurts did miss a couple of games last year but he still finished as the QB5 in fantasy points per game. And he did that while his team attempted the fewest pass attempts of any team in the league. The Eagles were crazy efficient in their march to the Super Bowl and Hurts was equally efficient himself in the way he operated.

The Eagles managed to keep all of their key weapons on offense this offseason. And they quietly did lose a few pieces on that defense. So maybe they will have to come out and pass a bit more this year.
 

Jalen Hurts Cons

You really do need to bet on them to pass a little bit more if you want Jalen Hurts to have QB1 overall upside. Because he threw for fewer than 3,000 yards this past year. Sure, not missing time would have boosted those numbers but rookie Jayden Daniels effectively missed two games as well and he threw for over 600 more yards. Six different quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 and 19 threw for over 3,000. Jalen Hurts was not one.

There’s really no indication that the Eagles won’t just lean on Saquon Barkley and the run game again in 2025. And there’s a possibility that maybe they start using the Tush Push a little more sparingly when they can hand the ball to their star back and keep their QB healthy. That’s what the Bills and Ravens have started to do.

It’s also worth noting that Jalen Hurts has missed time in with an injury in four of his last five seasons. We’re not super worried about additional concussion or finger issues but the ankle, shoulder, and knee are injuries that can potentially add up.

 

 

 

Which Top Quarterback To Draft In 2025?

It’s pretty clear that all of these quarterbacks have massive upside. But all of them have their warts as well. Everyone wants to know WHO we should be drafting but, for me, the more important question boils down to WHEN to draft them. All four of these guys are superstars so, to me, it’s more about getting the best price/value on one of them than it is reaching for a specific player.

Lucky for you, I’ve not only ranked them along with 30+ other quarterbacks in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide but I have color-coded them all based on who I’m willing to reach for at ADP, who is a fine value at ADP, and who are are passing on at ADP. My Dynamic Tier Rankings take things a step forward in helping you understand where and when to strike to get the best value. 

And, if you miss out on the top couple of options, there is a unique pairing system in the second tier to help you balance floor with upside if you choose to draft two QBs (like we did last year to land Jayden Daniels). That way, you can dominate your league and get access to elite upside whether or not you spend up on the top guys!

 

 

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