Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season came out of nowhere as we dig in for another NFL DFS main slate this Sunday. Last week’s slate seemed a little easier to read, but we do have five games on this slate with projected totals under 44 points. That’s not a great bar for measurement, but there are only two teams this week I’m comfortable playing as of Wednesday afternoon. Fortunately for us, we don’t have to worry about tropical storms impacting this slate like last week. We have a great AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins that will be popular for stacking in DFS. But we obviously have no need for D/ST’s from that game. Here are the NFL DFS D/ST top plays for Sunday’s Week 4 main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NFL DFS D/ST TOP TIER PICKS

Philadelphia Eagles

This is tough. Skipping over San Francisco isn’t ideal. However, on DraftKings the 49ers are priced up at $4,700 while the Eagles are the second-most expensive team but at a $600 discount. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia are in divisional matchups this week so it’s a little hairy. These games can be unpredictable. I’m not going to list the 49ers as this week’s D/ST Fade because the Cardinals can surprise some people. But I don’t love the price tag compared to every other D/ST on the board. The Buffalo Bills recorded nine sacks and forced five turnovers last week against Washington. They even held them to a stellar three points on offense and the Bills broke the slate with 32 fantasy points. The Broncos were torched by the Washington Commanders, but even they managed four sacks despite losing. And back in Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals collected six sacks and forced three turnovers against Washington. So through three games, the Commanders offense has allowed 19 sacks and they’ve turned it over eight times? And they now have to go visit Philadelphia? Sign me up!

New Orleans Saints

I do have concerns about the Saints covering Chris Godwin out of the slot. They’ve been awful in that regard. Vegas is selling this total for 40.5 points and the Saints are favored by three points. But if you read on, I think there are arguments for both teams in this matchup. In the first two weeks of the season, the Bucs offense really went to town against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. But the Bucs have one less day of preparation since they played on Monday and had just three points through the first 50 minutes of the game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bucs totaled just 174 yards of offense in that matchup and they’ll have another tough matchup against this defense, although the Saints aren’t as elite as Philly. The Saints have mostly a “bend, but don’t break” mentality. They’ve allowed just 50 total points to opposing offenses through three games including just 288 total yards of offense as well. I think we see the Bucs struggle against another upper tier D/ST this weekend.

 

NFL DFS D/ST MID-TIER PICKS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As of Wednesday morning, this game had the lowest projected total on the Week 4 main slate at 40.5 points. The Buccaneers are three-point underdogs, which is surprising to me because their offense did great through two weeks and even Monday night they had some positives to take away. Sure, they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles but most teams do. This D/ST is about to go up against Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. Carr was sacked four times in each of the team’s first two games, and he was brought down three times prior to leaving last week’s game with injury. The Saints had a 17-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. Once Winston came in, the offense stalled and they couldn’t put anymore points on the board and they ended up losing 18-17. Now Winston does get a full week to prepare for this game. And the Saints get Alvin Kamara back. So there are reasons for concern, but with Jameis under center, the Bucs are in position to force some turnovers.

Indianapolis Colts

I’ll be completely honest, I’m not in love with this play. But I hate the mid-tier this week and while my beloved New England Patriots are only $3,000 I don’t really want to play that group against a vengeful Cowboys offense. But I think there are reasons to like the Colts. You can certainly move the ball on this D/ST but they find ways to return value. Sure, a second half fumble recovery for a touchdown in Week 1 kept them afloat. But the last two weeks against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, the Colts have returned nine fantasy points each time. That’s good, but obviously not great. However, the Rams just played on Monday night so they don’t really get a day off ahead of this matchup. While we can all fawn over what Sean McVay has done with this offense through three games, the offense has scored just 39 points in their last two outings. So I won’t touch the Colts in Cash games, but I think they correlate well in Tournaments if you’re using Zack Moss as a one-off in this matchup.

 

NFL DFS D/ST VALUE PICKS

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns are a fascinating option this week. They’re only $2,800 on DraftKings and they are likely priced in this range because of the matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. However, they’re the favorites in this matchup by 2.5 points and the projected total is at 41 points. I understand the Ravens are the best offense the Browns will have faced to date. But Cleveland might have a top three defense this year. They’ve only forced two turnovers through three games, but their pass rush is lethal and last week they sacked Ryan Tannehill five times. Through three games, opposing offenses have put up just 20 points and 491 total yards of offense. That’s an average of 6.66 points per game allowed and 163.66 yards per game allowed. The Ravens are a little beat up as well so it’ll be worth monitoring their injury reports. But in Week 3 they were without Justice Hill, Odell Beckham, Tyler Linderbaum, and Ronnie Stanley on offense.

Arizona Cardinals

This might be bold, but I’m fine paying down to Arizona in Cash games if it means we can fit in every piece that we like elsewhere for our DFS lineups. I wouldn’t go here in Tournaments because the ceiling obviously sucks. But in Cash games, if they got me two fantasy points, I could live with that. I’d be ecstatic if they somehow returned four or five. Are they currently in my early Cash game build? If I’m being completely transparent, they are not. But we have a few days left to tinker with our lineups. The Cardinals have collected 11 sacks and forced five turnovers through three games. And even though they’ve allowed over 400 yards of offense the last two weeks, they’ve still returned four and five points respectively in both matchups. Let me reiterate, I’d be happy with that return if punting the D/ST position in Cash games. Obviously, the San Francisco 49ers are a serious threat. Vegas has Arizona as 14-point underdogs and the projected total is at 44 points. On paper, this isn’t a great play. Brock Purdy does enough to get the job done and he limits mistakes. He gets the ball quickly to his best players and that may be a concern in regard to sacks and forcing turnovers. But last week he did have some horrendous off-target throws to his receivers. I expect he’ll get Brandon Aiyuk back for this game, which is a benefit to him and a downgrade to Arizona. But I haven’t been blown away by San Francisco’s offensive line interior and the Cardinals have surprised many by not being a complete pushover.

 

NFL DFS D/ST FADE

Denver Broncos

We faded the Broncos in Week 2 and I’ll go back to the well fading them here. This may not be the boldest fade on the slate, but this group is just not very good. They were torched for 70 points last week and they surrendered over 700 yards of offense. If it weren’t for a 99-yard kick return for a touchdown by Marvin Mims, it would’ve been an even worse DFS performance for this group. The Chicago Bears offense has only scored 47 points through three games. It’s been brutal for Justin Fields and Co. But this is a home game for Chicago and while I expect Denver to win this game, I’m not expecting a dominant performance from this D/ST. Justin Fields is being coached horribly through three games with very few designed run plays. The air game hasn’t been great either. However, if I’m going to pay up for a D/ST this week I’d rather consider the Philadelphia Eagles for just $400 more or save $100 and play the New Orleans Saints. This game has a 46-point total and the Broncos are only favored by a field goal. So Vegas at least expects Chicago to put up some points in this game.