Week 16 is here and with it comes the second round of the fantasy football playoffs and a big congratulations if you still have any Best Ball lineups with a pulse! This week and next week will see slightly altered schedules.

 

 

 

We have meaningful Saturday slates the next couple weekends in addition to two games on Christmas Day. But let’s cross that bridge when we get to it! We get 11 games for this week’s main slate, so we have plenty of options for our cash games and tournament contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Week 16 D/ST Coach!

NFL DFS Week 16 D/ST Coach For FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

The Week 15 main slate was a fun one, and we struck gold with the Denver Broncos as the Play of the Week. They managed to return 20+ fantasy points due to their high-pressure rate and they had a delicious pick six on a trick play attempt by the Indianapolis Colts.

The Broncos having a monster day at a reasonable price tag has me feeling better about the Fade of the Week. I’ll eat crow for this one, but I stand by fading the Cincinnati Bengals. Their defense is bad (they still gave up 27 points) but they took advantage of a terrible Will Levis performance. 

Yes, they returned 19 fantasy points and should’ve had more. But to each their own. We saved money and got more points out of the Play of the Week.

 

 

 

NFL Week 16 Defense/Special Teams

We have a large-ish slate to break down for Week 16 with 11 games on the main slate. I do think there are some pricing discrepancies between both sites. 

So for this week, I’m going to really specify which teams I prefer on DraftKings and which are better for FanDuel. If you don’t see a DK or FD pricing next to a team below, take that as a sign that I’m not fond of the cost on the respective site.

This week’s slate once again has a lot of game’s living in this 42-to-48-point range in terms of implied totals. Similar to last week we do have one massive favorite on the board and they will be the first D/ST we discuss for this week’s article. Let’s run it back once again nailing the Play of the Week.

Across all the pricing tiers we still have you covered with the NFL DFS Week 16 D/ST Coach!

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks For Week 16

Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,000

I likely won’t be able to afford the Bills on the main slate, but I’ve made some early builds for the Early Only slate(s) on DraftKings and FanDuel and can make it work. But the Bills are massive 14-point favorites at home against the New England Patriots which gives the road team an implied team total of 16.25 points and even that feels generous.

The Bills went on the road last week and while it wasn’t a great performance for fantasy football and DFS, they surprisingly managed to hold the Detroit Lions to just 48 rushing yards and that’s no easy task. The Patriots are an absolute mess. They’ve allowed 45 sacks through 14 games, their head coach may have talked his way onto the hot seat, and this team struggles to put up points.

Also, this game was flexed into the late window. So it’ll kickoff at 4:25pm ET and the temperatures will continue to drop from the high teens to the low teens as the game progresses. The Bills may just have the safest floor on the whole slate.

Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $3,300 | FanDuel: $4,400

Yes, I recommended them as a fade last week and it didn’t work out. I’m not necessarily chasing the production of last week but there are obvious factors in play with the Bengals.

For starters, I’m skipping over the Lions simply because they’re taking on a lot of injuries on both offense and defense. The Bears put up a decent fight against them on Thanksgiving so I won’t fade the Lions, but I also don’t want to feature them.

The Bengals, unlike the Lions, are at least home this week and playing host to the Cleveland Browns. Jameis Winston is not under center for the Brownies in Week 16. It’ll be Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The move at quarterback is probably just a means for Cleveland to get a better look at DTR to know what they have. Everybody knows what Jameis Winston brings to the table.

DTR actually did play against the Bengals back in Week 7. He served as the replacement when Deshaun Watson was injured. In his place, DTR completed less than 50% of his pass attempts for just 82 yards. He also threw two interceptions and had a fumble that was recovered by the offense.

Nick Chubb’s production is also concerning. I do expect the Browns to lean more on Jerome Ford. But Chubb’s averaging just 3.3 YPC so I don’t anticipate he’ll be much of a factor. At the end of the day, the Bengals returned 15 fantasy points when these two teams met back in Week 7 so this could be a repeat performance.

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks For Week 16

Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $3,000

The Colts are a safe play and if you can afford them on FanDuel, you can definitely plug them in. The downside to this matchup is that the Colts won’t have the luxury of going against Will Levis, who had four turnovers last week.

The Tennessee Titans seem committed to starting Mason Rudolph for their final three games of the 2024 NFL season. Rudolph actually did pretty well last week despite only playing in the second half. But he completed 21-of-26 pass attempts for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

I will note that Rudolph is more of a game manager, but that’s good enough to be a backup quarterback in the NFL. When he started for the Titans in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 he had four touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown, four interceptions, and four fumbles (one lost).

There is still room and a possibility the Colts can put up a great score on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Titans are also a bit beat up with Tony Pollard re-injuring his ankle so if he can’t go that helps this recommendation a bit.

Atlanta Falcons – FanDuel: $4,000

The Falcons are a much better play on FanDuel. Now does that make them a full fade on DraftKings? Not necessarily. But they are the most expensive D/ST on DraftKings at $3,700 and I just don’t think I’ll be able to afford them. FanDuel is more manageable.

Atlanta’s defense has been blitzing a lot more as 13 of their 23 sacks this season have come in their last three games. But they’ve taken advantage of some favorable matchups. For starters, we liked how the matchup against the Chargers came together for them in Week 13. And last week they took advantage of a bad offensive line in Vegas. Is this defense good? I don’t think so. They had four sacks against Minnesota but still gave up 42 points.

But this week they’re at home and they’re facing the Giants. Be mindful, this is a short week for Atlanta because they played Monday night against the Raiders on the road. The Giants are set to run with Drew Lock as their starting quarterback and he’s a little beat up at the moment. To go along with that, the Giants have allowed 45 sacks, and they have an implied team total of 16.75 points for this game.

 

 

 

NFL Week 16 DFS D/ST Value Picks

San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $2,800

The 49ers travel on the road for this matchup, and they have to play the Miami Dolphins. But this isn’t your typical “West coast team playing on the East coast” narrative. This game will be played in the afternoon window with kickoff set for 4:25pm ET. And the 49ers played on Thursday in Week 15 so they should be well rested.

The 49ers weren’t bad in Week 15. They just didn’t force any turnovers or get any sacks. And that’s surprising to say the least. But they still only gave up 12 points to the Los Angeles Rams and allowed just over 300 yards of offense.

The Dolphins offensive line isn’t very good and Terron Armstead was inactive last week. If he’s unable to go in Week 16 I think the 49ers can bounce back and get ample pressure on Tua Tagovailoa.

Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $2,200 | FanDuel: $3,500

This isn’t a play with a ton of confidence. And honestly, I try to emphasize how this position is the last piece of the puzzle every week. These two teams met on Thanksgiving and the Bears managed to return four fantasy points. If they can do that again at a price tag this cheap, so be it. You can manage to roll with that if you don’t sacrifice the integrity of the rest of your roster.

Now can we talk ourselves into thinking this is a good play? Actually, I think we can find some positives! The Detroit Lions lost David Montgomery for what appears to be the rest of the regular season while Knuckles gets a second opinion to potentially return for the playoffs.

That absence alone helps the Bears to some extent. And the Detroit rushing attack has struggled in their last two games. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged just 3.9 YPC against the Bills and 2.9 YPC against the Packers in Week 14.

The other thing to monitor is that Detroit has played most of their games in a controlled environment this season. Their only other outdoor game was in Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers where the offense totaled just 17 points and 261 yards of offense. The defense did have a pick six in that game, so they won 24-14 but the offense wasn’t stellar by any means.

For this game, temperatures will be in the low 30’s with 10-15 mph winds in Chicago on Sunday. If Detroit is a bit uncomfortable and can’t handle the elements, I’d entertain betting the under for this game and maybe hope for five-to-six fantasy points from the Bears.

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Fades For Week 16

Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $3,600

Part of me actually wanted to list the Jaguars as a value play. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. The Jaguars go on the road for this matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders and this game has the lowest implied total on the slate according to the sportsbooks. The Jaguars are one-point underdogs but it’s basically a pick ‘em.

The Raiders are playing on a short week. They hosted the Falcons on Monday and looked absolutely terrible. However, it does appear as if Aidan O’Connell will be able to play in this game which must be welcoming news for Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers because Desmond Ridder was an abomination.

This Raiders offensive line is terrible. There were times Monday night where the Falcons were only rushing three defensive linemen and they were still getting to Ridder. But O’Connell is a better quarterback and elevates the offense.

Jacksonville hasn’t forced a turnover in their last four games and they have just six sacks in their last five games. The Jaguars aren’t priced terribly but anyone playing them expecting the Raiders to look as weak as they did on Monday might be mistaken.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 16 D/ST Play Of The Week

Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $4,700

I’ll go a little off the wall here because I don’t anticipate heavy ownership flocking to the Vikings. Road game in a tough environment? Sure! But we know this defense takes a blitz heavy approach and gets pressure on the quarterback more than most teams.

The Vikings only have four sacks in their last three games, but they do have six takeaways in that span. The Seahawks are coming off a dud of a performance against the Packers last week and they pretty much threw everybody onto the latest injury report. Kenneth Walker has missed two games with a calf injury. Zach Charbonnet’s dealing with an oblique injury. Geno Smith is likely to play but he’ll be playing through a knee injury.

The Seahawks have given up 47 sacks in 14 games. That’s not a great look going against a defense that blitzes as often as Minnesota. This is a very difficult environment to play but the Vikings have shown what their ceiling is on multiple occasions this year and they may come in as a leverage play for tournaments. In cash games you can look elsewhere or try to get to the Bills. This play is strictly for GPP contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 16 Defense/Special Teams Projections