NFL DFS Defense Picks, Thanksgiving Day: Week 12 D/ST Coach
Welcome to the FREE preview of the NFL Week 12 DFS Playbook for Thanksgiving Day 2023!
We have another DFS slate chock full of heavy favorites - but in a season that has been full of so many surprises, do we trust them or look to differentiate our lineups at the defensive position?
As always, the D/ST Coach is your one-stop-shop for finding the defenses you should target (or not target) in your DFS contests so you can build the best lineups possible. The same goes for our QB picks, RB picks, WR picks, and TE picks, so be sure to check out the rest of our All-Pro “Coach” articles and target the right plays, values and fades at each position.
Top Thanksgiving DFS Defense: Dallas Cowboys
They’re the most expensive option on the slate and last week was a good reminder of what they’re capable of after a dud performance against the New York Giants in Week 10. This game has the highest implied total on the slate at roughly 48 points, but the Cowboys are also 11-point favorites. Normally I’d shy away from a divisional game such as this, but all three games happen to be divisional matchups, so if I’m paying up anywhere then I’ll go with Dallas at home.
The Cowboys have a dozen sacks and three takeaways in their last two games, where they’ve allowed a total of 27 points and 359 yards of offense. Funny enough, the Commanders defense is surrendering 27.7 points per game and 372.8 yards on average. While Dallas’s defense isn’t literally twice as good as Washington’s, this shows you just how dominant Dallas has been - and we like dominant defenses in our DFS NFL games.
The Commanders aren’t afraid to let Sam Howell throw the ball 40+ times. That kind of volume is concerning for an opposing fantasy defense - but that also means Dallas may get more chances for sacks and turnovers if he sits in the pocket. Howell takes about four or five sacks per game and while defensive/special team touchdowns are unpredictable in DFS, the Cowboys have six already this year. I’ll take the Cowboys at home on this short slate over the San Francisco 49ers on the road, who just lost Talanoa Hufanga for the season.
DFS Defense Mid-Tier Play: Detroit Lions
In the mid-tier of the Thanksgiving DFS slate, you pick your poison between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The Lions are favored by 7.5 points and when these teams met in Week 4, the Lions held the Packers to just 20 points on 230 yards of offense. They also sacked Jordan Love five times and intercepted him twice. The Lions also have the luxury of playing at home, where they allow just 281.8 yards of offense and 19 points per game compared to 344.2 yards and 24.4 points per game on the road.
Jordan Love was serviceable against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but that’s a matchup any quarterback can take advantage of. His passing completion drops about five points on the road and he’s throwing 47 yards per game fewer on the road than at home.
I expect Detroit to give Green Bay’s offense fits to kick off this three-game slate. Make your DFS defense picks accordingly.
Thanksgiving Day DFS Defense Value Play: Seattle Seahawks
This is obviously a gamble, but on a short slate and with a position of variance, anything can happen. You may even nail the optimal lineup with the Seahawks locked in as your defense while you have Christian McCaffrey in your lineup. It happens.
By recommending Seattle, I’m mostly investing in the personnel. Yes, the 49ers have absolute studs on offense. But Seattle’s run defense has gotten better since acquiring Leonard Williams, and this secondary is young and on the rise with Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Tre Brown. Seattle hasn’t had a quarterback throw for 300+ yards since Week 3 and only Sam Howell has thrown for over 250 yards in that span - and even then he got there on pure volume.
This game has the lowest total on the slate and the Seahawks are roughly seven-point underdogs. They’ll have their hands full with CMC, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but I do think this defensive unit is trending in the right direction. It’s unfortunate they’re getting the 49ers on a short week, but this is the DFS value play to consider at D/ST.
Player News
ESPN’s Jordan Raanan expects Jaxson Dart to sit his entire rookie year if “all goes well.”
The problem with that otherwise sensible opinion, of course, is that it is extremely unlikely “all goes well” with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on a roster that found itself picking at No. 3 overall last month. If the Giants are genuinely serious about redshirting Dart for a year, it will be easier than most places because of the presence of two veteran quarterbacks instead of just one, but coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen both have their jobs on the line. That almost equals “break rookie glass.” Teams have become more amenable to sitting blue-chip rookie QBs in recent years, but we would be stunned if Dart fails to make 2025 starts.
Colts claimed DT Eric Johnson II off waivers from the Patriots.
A 2022 fifth-round pick of the Colts, Johnson spent two years in Indy before last year’s sojourn in Boston. Waived at final cuts last summer, Johnson was claimed by the Pats. He’s been a steady special teamer and rotational depth piece up front. Johnson’s Colts experience greatly enhances his 53-man roster odds, but his spot will be far from a given. He turns 27 in July.
NBC Sports’ Matt Maiocco reports that the 49ers and OT D.J. Humphries do not have a deal in place.
Humphries reported on his social media account a few weeks ago that he had agreed to a contract with the 49ers, but that does not appear to be the case. At least for now. Humphries tore his ACL at the end of the 2023 season and was released by the Cardinals. He spent most of the 2024 season rehabbing before signing with the Chiefs. He started at left tackle in Week 14 before hurting his hamstring and missing the rest of the season. He will continue to search for another opportunity.
Patriots DT Christian Barmore (blood clots) will be ready to play in Week 1.
Barmore was limited to just four games last season while battling blood clots. He told reporters on Thursday that he’s been cleared for all football activity and has been a full participant in the Patriots’ offseason workout program. He expects to be fully ready by Week 1.
Raiders hired Brandon Hunt as Vice President of Player Personnel
Hunt was most recently the senior director of scouting for the Philadelphia Eagles and spent the previous two seasons as their director of scouting. Before joining the Eagles, Hunt spent 12 seasons (2010-21) as the pro scouting coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
ESPN’s Seth Wickersham reports Caleb Williams considered forcing a pre-draft trade from the Bears before ultimately deciding he could win in Chicago.
In other words, he mulled pulling an Elway. “Chicago is the place quarterbacks go to die,” were the words of Caleb’s father Carl to ESPN’s Seth Wickersham. Williams reportedly desired a trade to the Vikings, but he changed his mind after touring the Bears’ facility. “I can do it for this team,” Caleb reportedly told his dad. “I’m going to go to the Bears.” Williams acknowledged any attempt to force a trade would require going scorched earth on the Bears and city of Chicago, a process he did not have the stomach for. There have been zero reports of Bears/Williams drama since he made his peace with the idea, even after former coach Matt Eberflus’ clown show 2024 mistakes. It’s an interesting story, but one firmly planted in the past.