Welcome back to another edition of the Fantasy Football Mailbag, NFL Week 9 is already here, and you can feel the playoff anxiety already starting to creep in. Those of you who are sitting on five or more wins should probably feel pretty good about your playoff chances. It’s about winning games and improving that playoff seeding. For others, it’s do-or-die. One more loss and you could be on the outside looking in. Fortunately, we’re here to help.

 

 

 

One thing I always like to address, especially at this time of year, is how some people tend to trade their way right out of the playoffs because they’re looking too far ahead. I receive a lot of messages regarding trades and while I am always excited to see people improving their teams, you really have to be careful with some of the moves you are trying to make.

For example, how many of you are trying to acquire players who have a seemingly soft schedule in Week 15-17? Go on. Put ‘em up. I know you’re out there. I’ve seen at least a dozen emails in the last few days that have centered around acquiring James Conner because the Cardinals have the Patriots, Panthers and Rams in those weeks and, as of today, those teams rank 29th, 31st and 27th in DVOA against the run, respectively. 

On paper, the matchups look amazing, but some of you are likely jumping the gun a little here, especially with some of the players you seem willing to trade away in those deals. But before you start dangling the likes of Bijan Robinson or Alvin Kamara, you have to keep in mind that you may actually be doing your team a disservice. Don’t get me wrong – I love Conner. I have him on a bunch of teams, but what happens should Arizona fall out of contention in the NFC West and Wild Card picture? 

They are currently 4-4 with upcoming games against the Bears, Jets Seahawks (twice) and Vikings. Not an easy gauntlet to get through, is it? What if they go 2-3 or 1-4 during that stretch? Would it make sense for them to start getting a better look at Trey Benson? If you’re facing tomato-can run defenses, wouldn’t you want to give your supposed future a legitimate shot against NFL competition?

And while the Patriots and Panthers will remain bottom feeders the rest of the way, are you sure you want Conner starting in your fantasy football championship against a Rams team that could also be fighting for a playoff spot? They’ve won two in a row, they just got back Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and will be looking to make moves to improve their defense before the Nov. 5 trade deadline. 

The Cardinals defense currently ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass. What happens when Matthew Stafford starts slinging the rock to these guys, gives the Rams the lead and Conner gets game-flowed out of action?

I’m not saying that’s what will happen. I’m just saying it could and if you haven’t taken all of that under consideration, you probably should before you start trading away your best players for depth that has a nice fantasy playoff schedule on paper. Just saying… 

Now, let’s get to the questions for NFL Week 9. 

 

 

 

NFL Week 9 Fantasy Football Advice: Start/Sit, Waivers & Trades

Marc B Is Wondering...

This trade of Diontae Johnson to the Ravens has really ruffled a ton of fantasy feathers. It’s not that he was having some killer season, but, when healthy, he was commanding double-digit targets and had all sorts of PPR potential despite the Panthers being a disaster. 

Now with the Ravens, we have to take more of a wait-and-see approach before throwing him back into our starting lineups. How many targets will he see? Is Zay Flowers still the No. 1? Now that Mark Andrews has returned to form, where will Johnson sit among the pass catchers? Unfortunately, that makes him a potentially bad start in comparison to your other two options.

Between McConkey and Downs, I’m going to give the edge to McConkey. I think having Joe Flacco starting for the Colts is a huge boost to the fantasy value of the team’s pass-catchers, but I think the advantage really tilts more towards Michael Pittman than it does Downs this week. 

The Minnesota Vikings rank first overall in DVOA against the pass and if you break it down further, they rank third against the opposing slot where Downs lines up on 85-percent of his snaps. Both Josh Metellus and Byron Murphy Jr. have been fantastic in coverage this season.

McConkey, also primarily a slot receiver, has a much more favorable match-up against either Greg Newsome or Cameron Mitchell, depending on the health of Denzel Ward. He’s coming off his best game of the season (6-112-2) and has routinely thrived against man-coverage. 

In fact, among wide receivers with at least 30 targets this season, McConkey ranks third in yards per routes-run against man-coverage, sitting behind only Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown. And wouldn’t you know it – the Browns are in man-coverage 41.3-percent of the time, third-most in the NFL, and have used it more than 30-percent of the time in seven of eight games this season. 

Yes, the Chargers are a run-first team, but we’ve now seen Justin Herbert throw the ball no fewer than 32 times in a game over the last three weeks. McConkey is the guy I want in my lineup this week.   

 

 

 

Alex V. Wants To Know...

This is an interesting one, because my answer is probably not what everyone would think it to be. I’m actually going to lean into Chase Brown this week going up against a Raiders team that ranks 26th in DVOA against the run, allows almost 130 rushing yards per game, has given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and ranks 30th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. 

While I am still a firm believer that a healthy Zack Moss could steal back the majority of the workload in time, I’m going to give a nod to Big Fantasy and say that time is not now.

I’ve been a fan of Bigsby and what he’s done, but with word that Travis Etienne put in another limited practice Thursday and is recovering well from his hamstring injury, I’m hesitant to fully lean into Bigsby. Every opportunity he has, head coach Doug Pederson has reminded us that Etienne, when healthy, is the team’s starter. If this is a shared backfield against an Eagles team that could game-flow the Jaguars rushing attack right out of the action, I am going to avoid it.

As for Tillman and McMillan, I simply don’t like the matchups this week. Tillman faces a Chargers team that has one of the top defensive units and has excelled in coverage throughout the season. I know we’re all bullish on Jameis Winston taking over under center for the Browns, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. He’s been relegated to NFL back-up duty for a reason. 

And as for McMillan, the Bucs head out on the road to Kansas City, a secondary that is ranked eighth in the league against the pass and is allowing only 212.7 passing yards per game. Maybe Baker Mayfield has to chuck the ball around more in this one, but how much quality will we actually see? 

 

 

 

Stephen S. Asks…

Probably the toughest question I’ve received this week. You all know how much of a fan I am of Kincaid and the fact that he’s averaging close to seven targets per game over the last five weeks has been beyond encouraging, given the slow start to the season. But I am going to have to give the edge to Otton in this match-up against the Chiefs. 

While yes, their secondary is quite good, the Chiefs rank just 14th in DVOA against the position and are still allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Granted, they’ve gotten burned on a few fluky plays, but even just over the last two games, the Chiefs gave up a combined 11 catches for 150 yards to Brock Bowers and George Kittle. 

Now you can say that they are high-end, elite tight ends and Otton doesn’t rank among them, but in the two games since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down, Otten has 20 targets which he’s turned into 17 catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns. 

He is clearly the primary target/security blanket for Baker Mayfield right now and is expected to be leaned on again in this match-up. Don’t drop Kincaid, though. Once Evans comes back, we’re going to have to take another look at the target distribution in Tampa Bay.

Fantasy Football Week 9 - NFL 2024

If your fantasy football question didn’t get answered here in the Mailbag this week, don’t worry. Chances are, you’ve already heard from me via email or on social media. But please keep them coming. 

Many of us are diving into the start/sit questions regarding the same players, so maybe someone else gets their answer but you’ve got a very similar question. 

And, as always, please reach out at any point, whether it’s through the Fantasy Alarm Discord (just be sure to tag me or send a private DM) or in an email me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com. 

Best of luck to you all this week and let’s keep crushing it.