NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More Today: Wednesday Playbook

A reminder to sometimes keep it simple. After digging through the weeds of the slate, I'm adding Steph to the list. If you zoom out, he's gone over 55 DKP in three of his last six games. Golden State is a 7.5-point favorite (so hopefully Atlanta can keep it competitive), and the total is a huge number, pushing 240 points.

Dame is a tournament option for me, with everyone turning to value at the position tonight. The Bucks have a massive team total north of 123, and Chicago is playing at the fastest pace in the league.

I like Young if Jalen Johnson (Q) doesn’t play tonight. If JJ is in, you can easily pivot at point guard to Stephen Curry or Devin Booker on DraftKings at the 10 p.m. ET window.

VanVleet was awful to start the season, but I believe he’s finally trending in the right direction. He posted his highest usage rates of the season in back-to-back games, and both of those contests were with Jalen Green healthy. Green is questionable to play tonight, and if he’s out, FVV becomes a borderline priority for me. Without Green on the court this season, FVV has seen a 5% usage bump.

McCain has been tremendous as a rookie. It’s crazy to see his game seemingly transition right over from Duke a few months ago. His usage has been impressive, even with Joel Embiid active. I like him for his floor, and Memphis plays at a high pace.
 

Without Garland, LeVert, Merrill, Okorro, and Wade, it’s going to be VERY hard for Jerome and Craig Porter to both fail at their extremely cheap prices. I think the odds are decent that both of them get there, and I’d be shocked if at least one of them didn’t crush. There’s such a thing as good chalk, and these two guards are it.

Normal Powell is out, and there are a ton of minutes to replace. I don’t like this game environment, but Porter has recorded at least 27 DKP in his last four appearances when he’s logged at least 19 minutes. My best guess is he sees at least 20 tonight.

Not much to add here, but both CLE value guards should see at worst 25 minutes, with upside for 30+. You won’t find a much better situation to succeed than these guys are in tonight. Sometimes, you have to get different elsewhere for GPPs, which might be the case tonight. I’d imagine (at least) one of these two guards will be optimal on both sites.

This game should be a blowout, and Vegas also thinks so. But there is so much variance in the NBA. Say what you want about an emotional letdown after yesterday’s loss to Boston, but the bottom line is Cleveland is without a few high-usage players, and they have a 115-implied team total against the third-worst defensive rating in the league. If Mitchell decides to try tonight, he’ll likely be very low-owned, and by some chance this game stays close, he’s a great way to mitigate cheap New Orleans chalk for GPPs on the other side. Let’s test the range of outcomes! Tourney play only.

The Pelicans are down a billion bodies tonight. It’s hard to project Boston – the Pelicans are heavy underdogs against Cleveland, which is a very stout defensive team, so there is a high risk for a blowout. That being said, Boston should have the usage to not kill you, even if he only plays roughly three quarters in a worst-case scenario. By some miracle they’re hanging around later in the second half due to the Cavs sitting some of their own bodies, he could end up being one of the best per-dollar plays of the night. At a minimum, he should be a strong cash-game play at SG alongside the CLE guards at PG.
 

If Anfernee Simons plays, I’d only sprinkle Sharpe in some large field GPPs where you have plenty of lineups. But if Simons is out, that’s a big deal for Sharpe, who has logged 31+ minutes in each of his last three games, displaying monstrous usage rates in his most recent two contests (over 34%).

Kennard saw some decent playing time yesterday but largely disappointed. Memphis is without Marcus Smart, John Konchar, and of course, Ja Morant. Kennard can get grease-fire hot, and he makes for a fun GPP option on a slate with a ton of value. 

I’m still guessing what the New Orleans rotation is going to look like. Anyone projected for minutes at a flat $3K on DraftKings is worth a look. Keep him on your radar for tournaments. He likely has a scary floor, so avoid for cash unless he's starting.

Another high-priced GPP option that has disappointed many times this year. He’s just two games removed from a 60-burger, and we know he can post a 35-40% usage rate on any night of his choosing. The Knicks play slow, but KAT is Swiss cheese in the paint, and the Knicks rank just 21st in defensive rating.

LaVine should give you a high floor due to his minutes in a matchup against a Bucks team that owns an average defensive rating and pace.

I don’t love targeting players in games against Houston, but Benny has been ballin’ lately. He’s almost a lock to record 30+ minutes and a usage rate of at least 25%. I love his willingness to rebound, and he’s way less scoring-dependent than he’s been in the past. Benny was good in tough/slow matchups against Miami, Orlando, and New York this month. I’ll bump him up if Myles Turner is out again.

Amen can rack up steals and stocks, so he’s always a threat to crush. The Pacers rank outside the top 20 in defensive rating. He’s a tournament look, but if Jalen Green sits, he should probably be considered a priority due to more room for playing time and usage.

Cain doesn’t really have an exciting game. But what moves the needle is his upside for playing time tonight at $3,800 on DraftKings. Due to his high projected ownership, I'd pencil him into cash game builds for now, and I have no issue with him being a big part of your GPP builds.

There is so much value tonight, that you have to at least consider the guy with the largest ceiling on the slate. It’s a cupcake matchup against the Bulls, who play at the fastest pace in the league and get slaughtered in the paint. He’s a very strong play, as usual.

I’ll keep playing Williams while Chet Holmgren is out, and the absence of Isiah Joe won’t hurt him. Williams is the 1B option on this team, tallying usage rates over 33% in two of his last four games, and logging 50+ DKP in three of his last five appearances. He had 19 rebound chances yesterday, which was sixth-most of anyone who laced ‘em up.

Hunter is the largest of the largest GPP gross clicks. Like, maybe 5% of him in 150 builds should be considered “getting wild.” I can’t ignore the fact that he came back from a lengthy absence to post back-to-back usage rates of more than 30%. His minutes are dicey and he isn’t too cheap, but if Jalen Johnson gets ruled out, he could be one of those guys that you’re scratching your head about when the night is over, and he somehow gets to 35-40 DKP. It’s probably asking for a lot, but I’m curious if this new-found usage is sticky and if it is, I want to get ahead of the herd.

Love the matchup for Eason. While everyone aims for a stars and scrubs build, he may be a bit overlooked at $5,600. I’ll like him a lot more if Jalen Green gets ruled out. He should provide a decent floor (even with Green), but he’s probably a large-field GPP option without any more news.

LaRavia is another Memphis value piece, which might have been chalk on another night when there wasn’t a wealth of cheap options. He was very impressive last night, logging 27 minutes, and a massive 18 rebound chances. If his job is to crash the glass again, he could provide serious value.

The Cavs are down a ton of players tonight, and we should expect at least 25-30 minutes from him this evening. Niang averages .79 DKP per minute this season, and that’ll surely play tonight.

After a sluggish start to the season, KAT decided to become an alpha in the offense, record high usage, and he’s playing all-around great ball right now. Most of the duds on his game log have been due to blowouts. He’s recorded a usage rate of at least 30% in six of his last eight games. He should be $10K.

I’m not crazy about coaches that do funky things with their rotations or are quick to pull the rug, but it’s hard to pass up Sengun in a matchup against a possible Myles Turner-less Pacers squad. Indiana is allowing the 7th-most points in the paint.

Lopez checks a ton of GPP boxes for me. He’s always priced fairly, has huge block upside, and the Bulls are yielding the most points in the paint league-wide. Lopez has logged monster minutes lately, which is fairly surprising for November basketball. Sign me up for tournaments. 

Timelord! I love the idea of playing Bobby Williams, even at $5,400 on FanDuel. Embrace the volatility, and his ability to block shots gives him incredible upside. He’s probably a bit overpriced on FD, but there’s a chance the block gods are on our side. Due to his ability to get stocks, he’s been a historically great point-per-minute producer.

Smith has been wildly inconsistent this year. It’s been strange, as he typically provided a high floor in 2023. He’s really cheap, but it’s justified. If Jalen Green misses, I don’t hate the idea of sprinkling him in your player pool, just in case he plays 30 minutes, which could give him an incredible ceiling at $4,600.

Have I mentioned that the Pelicans are decimated right now? JRE should play a ton of minutes, and I love a cheap big that also cracks a decent usage rate about half of the time that he plays.