NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More Today: Thursday Playbook

Published: Mar 20, 2025
Happy Thursday, March 20th, we have a five-game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Two of the games tip off at 7:00 PM ET, and then we have a three-hour gap to the final three games in the late window. Thankfully, the Lakers have already given us their injury report and Luka Doncic will rest tonight, so we have avoided a guessing game on his availability during the gap in start times. With Luka joining LeBron James on the Lakers inactive list, Giannis Antetokounmpo is on an island by himself as the only player priced above $10,000 on either site.
Be sure to join us in Discord for any important injury news leading up to roster lock. Let's dive in and discuss some of the top plays and best pivots for this NBA DFS slate.
UPDATE: The Lakers have also ruled out Austin Reaves and the Bucks downgraded Damian Lillard to questionable.
Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.
- News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
- Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
- Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
- NBA DFS Projections
- Lineup Generator
- NBA Ownership
NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, March 20th
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Pre/Post-Lock Update
This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock.
Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.
UPDATE 5:25 PM ET
- Tyrese Haliburton - OUT
- Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard are solid values
UPDATE 6:05 PM ET
- Moussa Diabate - Available
- Marcus Garrett - OUT
UPDATE 6:35 PM ET
- Miles McBride - Available
All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G
NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 3/20
- Cameron Johnson - OUT
- Cam Thomas - OUT
- Tyrese Haliburton - OUT
- Jalen Brunson - OUT
- Miles McBride - Available
- Mitchell Robinson - OUT
- Moussa Diabate - Available
- Marcus Garrett - OUT
- Josh Giddey - Q
- Lonzo Ball - OUT
- Domantas Sabonis - OUT
- Jake LaRavia - Q
- RJ Barrett - OUT
- Gradey Dick - OUT
- Ja'Kobe Walter - OUT
- Gary Payton - Q
- Damian Lillard - Q
- Luka Doncic - OUT
- LeBron James - OUT
- Austin Reaves - OUT
- Rui Hachimura - OUT
- Dorian Finney-Smith - D
- Jarred Vanderbilt - D
NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews
In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.
NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks
Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.
High
Mid
- Damian Lillard (if active), DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk, OG Anunoby, Draymond Green, Mikal Bridges, D'Angelo Russell, Andrew Nembhard, Dalton Knecht, Bennedict Mathurin
Value
- Jaxson Hayes, Jordan Goodwin, Gabe Vincent, Shake Milton, Markieff Morris (if starting)
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Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | DK Pts (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) | FD Pts (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PG | LaMelo Ball | NYK @ CHA Thu 7:00 | 9500 | 46.3 | 9400 | 44 |
LaMelo had another horrific shooting night last time out against the Clippers. He is an uncomfortable click best reserved for large-field tournaments until he can find more consistency with his shot making. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
PG | Damian Lillard | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 8500 | 42.1 | 8600 | 40.2 |
Lillard has posted two floor games in a row, but he did put up 22-6-10 against the Lakers earlier this month. Los Angeles will be down LeBron James and Luka Doncic, so it is a plus matchup for Dame. UPDATE: Lillard has been downgraded to questionable and there are blowout concerns now with Austin Reaves getting ruled out. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
PG | Tyrese Haliburton | BKN @ IND Thu 7:00 | 8600 | 0 | 9200 | 0 |
Haliburton has been finding ceiling performances with great frequency of late, but he is questionable on the injury report and his status final could shake up the slate. If he plays, I have interest against a bad Brooklyn defense. If Haliburton sits, Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin become intriguing mid-range options. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
PG | D'Angelo Russell | BKN @ IND Thu 7:00 | 5800 | 32 | 6400 | 30.7 |
Brooklyn is without two of their top usage guys in Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson, which means more shots for everyone else. D-Lo ranks second on the team with a 26.3% usage rate, and the usage rate has been above 28% with Thomas and Johnson off the floor. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
PG | Gabe Vincent | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 4300 | 22.6 | 4100 | 22.3 |
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
PG | Shake Milton | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 3700 | 25.9 | 3900 | 25.2 |
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
SG | Malik Monk | CHI @ SAC Thu 10:00 | 7900 | 37.2 | 7600 | 36.4 |
Monk put up 22-6-8 last game with Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine out. LaVine is expected to return tonight, but Sabonis is out again. The Bulls have been playing better defense lately (9th in DRtg last 10 games), but they still play at one of the fastest paces in the league. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
SG | Mikal Bridges | NYK @ CHA Thu 7:00 | 6200 | 31.6 | 6500 | 31 |
Bridges has stepped up his play with an average of 21.8 points per game since the injury to Jalen Brunson. He gets a matchup against a bad Charlotte defense. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
SG | Keon Johnson | BKN @ IND Thu 7:00 | 5900 | 22.5 | 5600 | 22.4 |
Keon Johnson has posted a healthy 24.5% usage rate with Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson off the floor this season. He has a path to play 30 minutes in an up-tempo matchup with the Pacers. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
SG | Jordan Goodwin | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 4600 | 29.5 | 4700 | 30.1 |
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
SF | Jimmy Butler | TOR @ GSW Thu 10:00 | 8200 | 39.2 | 8200 | 39.7 |
Butler continues to play great basketball since joining the Warriors. Steph will be back for this one, but they get a matchup against the tanking Raptors. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
SF | Josh Hart | NYK @ CHA Thu 7:00 | 8000 | 42.6 | 8100 | 40.9 |
Hart is always live for 40+ minutes and a backdoor triple-double. Charlotte also ranks top 10 in both blocks and steals allowed. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
SF | DeMar DeRozan | CHI @ SAC Thu 10:00 | 8200 | 35.7 | 7800 | 35.7 |
DeRozan has seen a meaningful bump in usage (+2.2%) and assist rate (+6.1%) with Domantas Sabonis off the floor. The Kings have the highest implied team total on the slate against the fast-paced Bulls. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
SF | OG Anunoby | NYK @ CHA Thu 7:00 | 7100 | 34.3 | 7200 | 34.5 |
Anunoby has posted 40+ fantasy points in three of the last six games Jalen Brunson has missed, including one 55 FP performance against the Kings. He gets a good matchup against the Hornets. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
SF | Dalton Knecht | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 5600 | 33.5 | 4500 | 31.9 |
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
SF | Ziaire Williams | BKN @ IND Thu 7:00 | 4700 | 26.6 | 4900 | 26.4 |
Ziaire Williams has played at least 28 minutes in six straight games, and he has a path to play even more tonight with Cameron Johnson joining Cam Thomas on the list of inactives. Ziaire has posted 0.86 FPPM this season. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
PF | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 11700 | 58.6 | 11700 | 56.8 |
We expected the Lakers to be without Luka Doncic and LeBron James, but blowout concerns elevated when Austin Reaves was also ruled out. Damian Lillard was downgraded to questionable shortly after the Lakers ruled out Reaves, so we need to stay tuned into news for this game. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
PF | Pascal Siakam | BKN @ IND Thu 7:00 | 8300 | 38.6 | 8000 | 38.1 |
Siakam has posted at least 40 fantasy points in four straight games and Haliburton is questionable on the injury report. Siakam has not received a meaningful boost with Haliburton off the floor this season, so I actually like Siakam more if Hali plays. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
PF | Draymond Green | TOR @ GSW Thu 10:00 | 6300 | 32.4 | 6700 | 32.9 |
Draymond continues to play great basketball this season and his minutes have held steady in the low 30s even with the return of Jonathan Kuminga. He gets an elite matchup with the tanking Raptors. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
PF | Jonathan Kuminga | TOR @ GSW Thu 10:00 | 5500 | 22.3 | 5300 | 22.1 |
Kuminga is likely still on a bit of a minutes restriction, but we have seen him play as many as 27 minutes in a game since his return. He has a very attractive price tag if he plays into the upper-20s again, especially given the matchup against the tanking Raptors. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
C | Karl-Anthony Towns | NYK @ CHA Thu 7:00 | 9700 | 50.7 | 9700 | 47.9 |
KAT has posted a usage rate above 33% with Jalen Brunson off the floor this season. He has topped 50 fantasy points in just one of the most recent six games Brunson has missed, but I am going to keep chasing the ceiling. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
C | Jonas Valančiūnas | CHI @ SAC Thu 10:00 | 7700 | 31.5 | 7400 | 31.1 |
JoVal has been a FPPM beast in his career and that remains true as he has filled in for Domantas Sabonis. The minutes have been very inconsistent lately, but he has a good chance to play mid-20s tonight in a matchup with the also aging Vucevic on the other side. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
C | Nikola Vučević | CHI @ SAC Thu 10:00 | 7100 | 35.6 | 7300 | 35 |
We can't expect more than 30 minutes from Vucevic these days, but I like this spot for him with Sabonis out on the other side. He should be able to exploit the matchup against Valanciunas and find some open looks on the perimeter. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
C | Nic Claxton | BKN @ IND Thu 7:00 | 5800 | 30.1 | 6100 | 31.7 |
Claxton has found floor games far more often than ceiling games recently, but there are reasons for optimism tonight. Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson are out for this up-tempo matchup with the Pacers. Indiana has allowed the 2nd-most points in the paint this season and is below average in rebounding. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
C | Jaxson Hayes | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 5000 | 26.2 | 5200 | 27.9 |
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
PF | Markieff Morris | MIL @ LAL Thu 10:30 | 3000 | 15.7 | 3600 | 15.5 |
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP |
LaMelo Ball, PG | 9500 , 46.3 | 46.3 | 9400 , 44 | 44 | ||
LaMelo had another horrific shooting night last time out against the Clippers. He is an uncomfortable click best reserved for large-field tournaments until he can find more consistency with his shot making. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Damian Lillard, PG | 8500 , 42.1 | 42.1 | 8600 , 40.2 | 40.2 | ||
Lillard has posted two floor games in a row, but he did put up 22-6-10 against the Lakers earlier this month. Los Angeles will be down LeBron James and Luka Doncic, so it is a plus matchup for Dame. UPDATE: Lillard has been downgraded to questionable and there are blowout concerns now with Austin Reaves getting ruled out. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
8600 , 0 | 0 | 9200 , 0 | 0 | |||
Haliburton has been finding ceiling performances with great frequency of late, but he is questionable on the injury report and his status final could shake up the slate. If he plays, I have interest against a bad Brooklyn defense. If Haliburton sits, Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin become intriguing mid-range options. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
D'Angelo Russell, PG | 5800 , 32 | 32 | 6400 , 30.7 | 30.7 | ||
Brooklyn is without two of their top usage guys in Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson, which means more shots for everyone else. D-Lo ranks second on the team with a 26.3% usage rate, and the usage rate has been above 28% with Thomas and Johnson off the floor. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Gabe Vincent, PG | 4300 , 22.6 | 22.6 | 4100 , 22.3 | 22.3 | ||
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Shake Milton, PG | 3700 , 25.9 | 25.9 | 3900 , 25.2 | 25.2 | ||
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Malik Monk, SG | 7900 , 37.2 | 37.2 | 7600 , 36.4 | 36.4 | ||
Monk put up 22-6-8 last game with Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine out. LaVine is expected to return tonight, but Sabonis is out again. The Bulls have been playing better defense lately (9th in DRtg last 10 games), but they still play at one of the fastest paces in the league. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Mikal Bridges, SG | 6200 , 31.6 | 31.6 | 6500 , 31 | 31 | ||
Bridges has stepped up his play with an average of 21.8 points per game since the injury to Jalen Brunson. He gets a matchup against a bad Charlotte defense. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Keon Johnson, SG | 5900 , 22.5 | 22.5 | 5600 , 22.4 | 22.4 | ||
Keon Johnson has posted a healthy 24.5% usage rate with Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson off the floor this season. He has a path to play 30 minutes in an up-tempo matchup with the Pacers. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Jordan Goodwin, SG | 4600 , 29.5 | 29.5 | 4700 , 30.1 | 30.1 | ||
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Jimmy Butler, SF | 8200 , 39.2 | 39.2 | 8200 , 39.7 | 39.7 | ||
Butler continues to play great basketball since joining the Warriors. Steph will be back for this one, but they get a matchup against the tanking Raptors. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Josh Hart, SF | 8000 , 42.6 | 42.6 | 8100 , 40.9 | 40.9 | ||
Hart is always live for 40+ minutes and a backdoor triple-double. Charlotte also ranks top 10 in both blocks and steals allowed. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
DeMar DeRozan, SF | 8200 , 35.7 | 35.7 | 7800 , 35.7 | 35.7 | ||
DeRozan has seen a meaningful bump in usage (+2.2%) and assist rate (+6.1%) with Domantas Sabonis off the floor. The Kings have the highest implied team total on the slate against the fast-paced Bulls. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
OG Anunoby, SF | 7100 , 34.3 | 34.3 | 7200 , 34.5 | 34.5 | ||
Anunoby has posted 40+ fantasy points in three of the last six games Jalen Brunson has missed, including one 55 FP performance against the Kings. He gets a good matchup against the Hornets. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Dalton Knecht, SF | 5600 , 33.5 | 33.5 | 4500 , 31.9 | 31.9 | ||
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Ziaire Williams, SF | 4700 , 26.6 | 26.6 | 4900 , 26.4 | 26.4 | ||
Ziaire Williams has played at least 28 minutes in six straight games, and he has a path to play even more tonight with Cameron Johnson joining Cam Thomas on the list of inactives. Ziaire has posted 0.86 FPPM this season. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
11700 , 58.6 | 58.6 | 11700 , 56.8 | 56.8 | |||
We expected the Lakers to be without Luka Doncic and LeBron James, but blowout concerns elevated when Austin Reaves was also ruled out. Damian Lillard was downgraded to questionable shortly after the Lakers ruled out Reaves, so we need to stay tuned into news for this game. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Pascal Siakam, PF | 8300 , 38.6 | 38.6 | 8000 , 38.1 | 38.1 | ||
Siakam has posted at least 40 fantasy points in four straight games and Haliburton is questionable on the injury report. Siakam has not received a meaningful boost with Haliburton off the floor this season, so I actually like Siakam more if Hali plays. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Draymond Green, PF | 6300 , 32.4 | 32.4 | 6700 , 32.9 | 32.9 | ||
Draymond continues to play great basketball this season and his minutes have held steady in the low 30s even with the return of Jonathan Kuminga. He gets an elite matchup with the tanking Raptors. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Jonathan Kuminga, PF | 5500 , 22.3 | 22.3 | 5300 , 22.1 | 22.1 | ||
Kuminga is likely still on a bit of a minutes restriction, but we have seen him play as many as 27 minutes in a game since his return. He has a very attractive price tag if he plays into the upper-20s again, especially given the matchup against the tanking Raptors. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
9700 , 50.7 | 50.7 | 9700 , 47.9 | 47.9 | |||
KAT has posted a usage rate above 33% with Jalen Brunson off the floor this season. He has topped 50 fantasy points in just one of the most recent six games Brunson has missed, but I am going to keep chasing the ceiling. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
7700 , 31.5 | 31.5 | 7400 , 31.1 | 31.1 | |||
JoVal has been a FPPM beast in his career and that remains true as he has filled in for Domantas Sabonis. The minutes have been very inconsistent lately, but he has a good chance to play mid-20s tonight in a matchup with the also aging Vucevic on the other side. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
7100 , 35.6 | 35.6 | 7300 , 35 | 35 | |||
We can't expect more than 30 minutes from Vucevic these days, but I like this spot for him with Sabonis out on the other side. He should be able to exploit the matchup against Valanciunas and find some open looks on the perimeter. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Nic Claxton, C | 5800 , 30.1 | 30.1 | 6100 , 31.7 | 31.7 | ||
Claxton has found floor games far more often than ceiling games recently, but there are reasons for optimism tonight. Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson are out for this up-tempo matchup with the Pacers. Indiana has allowed the 2nd-most points in the paint this season and is below average in rebounding. Game Type: GPP | ||||||
Jaxson Hayes, C | 5000 , 26.2 | 26.2 | 5200 , 27.9 | 27.9 | ||
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||||
Markieff Morris, PF | 3000 , 15.7 | 15.7 | 3600 , 15.5 | 15.5 | ||
The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. All five starters are in the conversation for top value on the slate. Goodwin and Vincent should be locked in for 30+ minutes, and Knecht has a chance to join them. I like Shake Milton even if he is coming off the bench as well. Game Type: CASH & GPP |