Happy Sunday! We have a five-game NBA DFS main slate with a few teams on a back-to-back and every game tipping by 8:00 pm ET. We have stars o'plenty here with Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, and Jalen Johnson taking the floor. Someone who is not taking the floor is Ja Morant, so that'll be interesting to watch how the Memphis Grizzlies perform against OKC without their best player.

 

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, December 29th

 

 

Pre-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

4:20 pm ET

4:55 pm ET

5:35 pm ET

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 12/29

 

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

With the NBA season just kicking off we don't have data yet for teams regarding pace of play and defensive matchups. In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors

  • Total: 240.5
  • Spread: ATL -1.5
  • Hawks are 3rd in pace, Raptors are 6th in pace
  • Hawks are 16th in DRtg, Raptors are 26th in DRtg

Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics

  • Total: 233.5
  • Spread: BOS -11.5
  • Pacers are 7th in pace, Celtics are 21st in pace
  • Pacers are 23rd in DRtg, Celtics are 7th in DRtg

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Total: 230
  • Spread: OKC -6.5
  • Grizzlies are 1st in pace, Thunder are 11th in pace
  • Grizzlies are 5th in DRtg, Thunder are 1st in DRtg

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets

  • Total: 216.5
  • Spread: HOU -8.5
  • Heat are 27th in pace, Rockets are 15th in pace
  • Heat are 10th in DRtg, Rockets are 2nd in DRtg

San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Total: 215
  • Spread: MIN -7
  • Spurs are 18th in pace, Timberwolves are 24th in pace
  • Spurs are 15th in DRtg, Timberwolves are 6th in DRtg

 

 

 

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.

High

Mid

Value

 

Pos
(Click to sort ascending)
Player
(Click to sort ascending)
Matchup
(Click to sort ascending)
DK
(Click to sort ascending)
DK Pts
(Click to sort ascending)
FD
(Click to sort ascending)
FD Pts
(Click to sort ascending)
PGShai Gilgeous-AlexanderMEM @ OKC Sun 7:001100051.21130051.3

I mean, yeah. Uptempo game. Massive Western Conference implications. SGA is going to show up and show out. He's on the hunt for his third 40 ball in his last three games.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PGTrae YoungATL @ TOR Sun 6:00990048.8910044.9

Young's been up and down with his shot this year but when they go in he has a massive ceiling. He's been the best passer in the league and we saw two games ago when the points are paired with the assists, there's 50+ FP every game.

Game Type: GPP
PGTyler HerroMIA @ HOU Sun 7:00800044.8800041.8

Herro's a GPP play only for me today but one I'm interested in. He has a very high ceiling but it's the second leg of a back-to-back against the league's second-ranked defense in the second worst game on the board. He's the team-leader in FP/min (1.23) and USG (29.3%) without Jimmy Butler.

Game Type: GPP
PGFred VanVleetMIA @ HOU Sun 7:00690034.6720034.6

The minutes stand out above anything else. Every close game he's playing nearly 40 minutes per game. He's shooting the ball a little better too and that's when you start getting the ceiling games from FVV because he's so good peripherally.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PGScotty PippenMEM @ OKC Sun 7:0035570034.6

It's very hard to deny how good Scotty Pippen Jr. has been this year on a whole, but there's no Ja Morant or Marcus Smart in this one so despite the tough matchup, I'm all in on Pippen. He's moderately owned, too low for his upside. With Morant and Smart off the floor this year, Pippen sits at 22% USG and 1.19 FP/min.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PGDonte DiVincenzoSAS @ MIN Sun 9:00410023.6490023

Is Donte DiVincenzo dare I say..BACK? Over his last five games, he's shot the ball like we saw all last year with the Knicks knocking down nearly 49% of his threes and is averaging 15 PPG and 27.9 DKP/game over that span.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SGJaylen BrownIND @ BOS Sun 6:00840043.4860041.9

Brown is always in play because he has a massive scoring ceiling, but if there's no Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porzingis again today he could try and replicate his last time out against the Pacers.

Game Type: GPP
SGDesmond BaneMEM @ OKC Sun 7:00730039740037.8

After a sluggish start to his year, Desmond Bane has really picked things up lately and now is playing without both Ja Morant and Marcus Smart. Without them, Bane has a 22.8% USG and averages 1.23 FP/min.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SGDevin VassellSAS @ MIN Sun 9:00550031.6580030.9

There's a lot to like outside of the matchup here. The minutes are all the way back for Vassell as he's topped 31 minutes in three straight and four of five. He has SG/SF elgibility and is able to fill up the stat sheet in multiple ways.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SGJaylen WellsMEM @ OKC Sun 7:00430022.8430021.5

Wells doesn't really stand out in any one particular fashion, but the one thing we should note from last game is the minutes. He played 32 minutes in a game without Smart and in a game Morant left. The minutes seem very secure and without Morant and Smart this year he's a .82 FP/min producer. If he gets 30 minutes, .82 plays.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SFJayson TatumIND @ BOS Sun 6:001030052.51060050.4

Tatum is super safe and has a massive ceiling if Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday sit. He's a triple-double threat in a matchup against a top-10 pace and bottom-10 defensive squad.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SFRJ BarrettATL @ TOR Sun 6:00910044.7820042.7

How many people get to RJ Barrett today? He'll be much less owned than Scottie Barnes and this is a great game environment. He dodges Dyson Daniels defense and is in a game total with 239 implied points, a one-point spread, and faces the Hawks on the second leg of a b2b. He's a 1.2 FP/min and 26% USG player with Barnes on the floor.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SFDe'Andre Hunter6400057000

The FD price is really nice. I don't even mind the DK price either. I don't really care who's in/out for Atlanta. Hunter's been awesome. He's scored 25+ actual points in four of five and has posted a USG of 23% or better in nine straight games. With Dyson Daniels out, Hunter has a 4% USG increase to a team-leading 28.9% USG.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SFKeldon JohnsonSAS @ MIN Sun 9:00370023.6470023.3

I know the minutes are anything but secure, but when Keldon Johnson has his offense going, he's a $5K+ player and he's typically extended too. You see the glimpses of how good he can be offensively and how aggressive he is at times. He's posted a 24.8% USG or better in five of his last eight games.

Game Type: GPP
PFJalen JohnsonATL @ TOR Sun 6:00930046.7920044.7

With Trae Young he's great. Without Trae Young he's great. Jalen Johnson is certified great. He's scored 28+ points in back-to-back games, contributes in literally every category on the board and might be without Trae Young here. He's ELITE.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PFJaren JacksonMEM @ OKC Sun 7:00780044.8830046.1

He's still too cheap knowing Ja Morant is out here. JJJ sees a 4.6% USG bump up to 33% without Morant and Marcus Smart and averages 1.4 FP/min. The minutes have been fantastic lately too, playing 30+ in three straight and 35 last game.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PFJulius RandleSAS @ MIN Sun 9:00740038.5750036.7

The ownership has finally caught up to the play. Randle's played his best three games of the year in a row and almost has three triple-doubles to speak of because of it. He's playing massive minutes, has had at least a 27.9% USG and his price has gone up $100 during that span.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
CVictor WembanyamaSAS @ MIN Sun 9:001140057.61190056.9

There are only three players over 10K and Wemby has an infinite ceiling with what he can do on both ends of the floor. He's at 1.6 FP/min and 32.7% USG for crying out loud.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
CZach EdeyMEM @ OKC Sun 7:00540030.8600031.4

Edey has been great lately and his price isn't moving as fast as it probably should. He'd benefit from Brandon Clarke ultimately being ruled out too. Without Morant and Smart this year, Edey is a 1.1 FP/min player.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
CNaz ReidSAS @ MIN Sun 9:00460024.3500024.2

Reid has tournament winning ability, he just needs to make shots. It's as simple as that. He's very popular, so the question you ask yourself is will he make enough shots to pay off the salary + ownership. 

Game Type: GPP
11000 , 51.2
51.2
11300 , 51.3
51.3

I mean, yeah. Uptempo game. Massive Western Conference implications. SGA is going to show up and show out. He's on the hunt for his third 40 ball in his last three games.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
9900 , 48.8
48.8
9100 , 44.9
44.9

Young's been up and down with his shot this year but when they go in he has a massive ceiling. He's been the best passer in the league and we saw two games ago when the points are paired with the assists, there's 50+ FP every game.

Game Type: GPP
8000 , 44.8
44.8
8000 , 41.8
41.8

Herro's a GPP play only for me today but one I'm interested in. He has a very high ceiling but it's the second leg of a back-to-back against the league's second-ranked defense in the second worst game on the board. He's the team-leader in FP/min (1.23) and USG (29.3%) without Jimmy Butler.

Game Type: GPP
6900 , 34.6
34.6
7200 , 34.6
34.6

The minutes stand out above anything else. Every close game he's playing nearly 40 minutes per game. He's shooting the ball a little better too and that's when you start getting the ceiling games from FVV because he's so good peripherally.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
, 35
35
5700 , 34.6
34.6

It's very hard to deny how good Scotty Pippen Jr. has been this year on a whole, but there's no Ja Morant or Marcus Smart in this one so despite the tough matchup, I'm all in on Pippen. He's moderately owned, too low for his upside. With Morant and Smart off the floor this year, Pippen sits at 22% USG and 1.19 FP/min.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4100 , 23.6
23.6
4900 , 23
23

Is Donte DiVincenzo dare I say..BACK? Over his last five games, he's shot the ball like we saw all last year with the Knicks knocking down nearly 49% of his threes and is averaging 15 PPG and 27.9 DKP/game over that span.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
8400 , 43.4
43.4
8600 , 41.9
41.9

Brown is always in play because he has a massive scoring ceiling, but if there's no Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porzingis again today he could try and replicate his last time out against the Pacers.

Game Type: GPP
7300 , 39
39
7400 , 37.8
37.8

After a sluggish start to his year, Desmond Bane has really picked things up lately and now is playing without both Ja Morant and Marcus Smart. Without them, Bane has a 22.8% USG and averages 1.23 FP/min.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
5500 , 31.6
31.6
5800 , 30.9
30.9

There's a lot to like outside of the matchup here. The minutes are all the way back for Vassell as he's topped 31 minutes in three straight and four of five. He has SG/SF elgibility and is able to fill up the stat sheet in multiple ways.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4300 , 22.8
22.8
4300 , 21.5
21.5

Wells doesn't really stand out in any one particular fashion, but the one thing we should note from last game is the minutes. He played 32 minutes in a game without Smart and in a game Morant left. The minutes seem very secure and without Morant and Smart this year he's a .82 FP/min producer. If he gets 30 minutes, .82 plays.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
10300 , 52.5
52.5
10600 , 50.4
50.4

Tatum is super safe and has a massive ceiling if Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday sit. He's a triple-double threat in a matchup against a top-10 pace and bottom-10 defensive squad.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
9100 , 44.7
44.7
8200 , 42.7
42.7

How many people get to RJ Barrett today? He'll be much less owned than Scottie Barnes and this is a great game environment. He dodges Dyson Daniels defense and is in a game total with 239 implied points, a one-point spread, and faces the Hawks on the second leg of a b2b. He's a 1.2 FP/min and 26% USG player with Barnes on the floor.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
6400 , 0
0
5700 , 0
0

The FD price is really nice. I don't even mind the DK price either. I don't really care who's in/out for Atlanta. Hunter's been awesome. He's scored 25+ actual points in four of five and has posted a USG of 23% or better in nine straight games. With Dyson Daniels out, Hunter has a 4% USG increase to a team-leading 28.9% USG.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
3700 , 23.6
23.6
4700 , 23.3
23.3

I know the minutes are anything but secure, but when Keldon Johnson has his offense going, he's a $5K+ player and he's typically extended too. You see the glimpses of how good he can be offensively and how aggressive he is at times. He's posted a 24.8% USG or better in five of his last eight games.

Game Type: GPP
9300 , 46.7
46.7
9200 , 44.7
44.7

With Trae Young he's great. Without Trae Young he's great. Jalen Johnson is certified great. He's scored 28+ points in back-to-back games, contributes in literally every category on the board and might be without Trae Young here. He's ELITE.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
7800 , 44.8
44.8
8300 , 46.1
46.1

He's still too cheap knowing Ja Morant is out here. JJJ sees a 4.6% USG bump up to 33% without Morant and Marcus Smart and averages 1.4 FP/min. The minutes have been fantastic lately too, playing 30+ in three straight and 35 last game.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
7400 , 38.5
38.5
7500 , 36.7
36.7

The ownership has finally caught up to the play. Randle's played his best three games of the year in a row and almost has three triple-doubles to speak of because of it. He's playing massive minutes, has had at least a 27.9% USG and his price has gone up $100 during that span.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
11400 , 57.6
57.6
11900 , 56.9
56.9

There are only three players over 10K and Wemby has an infinite ceiling with what he can do on both ends of the floor. He's at 1.6 FP/min and 32.7% USG for crying out loud.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
5400 , 30.8
30.8
6000 , 31.4
31.4

Edey has been great lately and his price isn't moving as fast as it probably should. He'd benefit from Brandon Clarke ultimately being ruled out too. Without Morant and Smart this year, Edey is a 1.1 FP/min player.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4600 , 24.3
24.3
5000 , 24.2
24.2

Reid has tournament winning ability, he just needs to make shots. It's as simple as that. He's very popular, so the question you ask yourself is will he make enough shots to pay off the salary + ownership. 

Game Type: GPP