NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More Today: Saturday Playbook
Happy Saturday, April 19th, and welcome to the NBA Playoffs! We can put behind us the nonsense rotations we have dealt with for the past month-plus and focus on tightened rotations from the league's best teams.
DraftKings and FanDuel have some solid tournament offerings for this four-game slate, so let's dive in and discuss some top plays and best pivots.
Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.
- News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
- Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
- Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
- NBA DFS Projections
- Lineup Generator
- NBA Ownership
Pre/Post-Lock Update
This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock.
Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.
All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G
NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/19
- Damian Lillard - OUT
- Jaden Ivey - OUT
NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews
In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
- Total: 224
- Spread: IND -5.5
Bucks NBA DFS Breakdown
The Bucks got some good news regarding Damian Lillard this week, but he is not yet ready to make his return. With Lillard out again, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the top spend-up on the slate. Antetokounmpo flashed massive upside to close out the regular season. He racked up multiple triple-doubles and even posted a 90+ fantasy point game. Indiana has been a matchup to target all season long, with their up-tempo play (7th in pace) and average defense.
Bobby Portis is going to be extremely popular on DK, as he is simply too cheap for his expected role. Portis returned from suspension to play in three games at the end of the regular season. He logged a double-double in two of those games and played 32 minutes in the final game. This is a tough spot to fade
The remaining Bucks would be nothing but dart throws in large-field tournaments. Other mid-range Centers have more upside than Brook Lopez, especially with the return of Portis. Kevin Porter saw his role grow at the expense of Ryan Rollins as the regular season came to a close, but there is risk they go back to Rollins.
Pacers NBA DFS Breakdown
The Pacers have the highest implied team total on the slate as 5.5 point home favorites. Tyrese Haliburton played outstanding basketball in the second half of the season and has huge upside in any matchup. Pascal Siakam has a very friendly price tag on DK at just $7,000, while he is more appropriately priced on FD at $8,300. Myles Turner has struggled in recent meetings with the Bucks and he will not make my pool today.
All of Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin are playable. Nesmith has displayed the most upside of the three recently, but a pivot to his less popular teammates is a viable tournament strategy. Nembhard is likely to play the most minutes of the three, but he is a low per-minute producer when the Pacers are full strength. Mathurin is unlikely to play more than mid-20s minutes, but has been the best per-minute producer of fantasy points among the trio.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
- Total: 223.5
- Spread: DEN -2.5
Clippers NBA DFS Breakdown
Clippers' starters played big minutes to close out the regular season, as they were fighting for playoff seeding. James Harden closed out the regular season with five straight games of at least 20 points and 10 assists. Harden's success did not impede the production of Kawhi Leonard, who scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of his last four games. The duo has played great together all season, and they each have a chance to play 40 minutes.
Ivica Zubac put together a career-best season and has recorded at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in four of his last five games. Norman Powell is the one who has seen his production squeezed, but there is still upside considering his mid-range price tag.
There are not going to be many playable options in the $30,00-$4,000 range, but Kris Dunn fits that description. He can rack up multiple steals per game that offset his lack of offensive production.
Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown
Nikola Jokic is right up there with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the highest ceiling on the slate. It is easier to spend up to the very top tier on DK, where pricing is a bit looser. We have seen Jamal Murray elevate his game to another level in Playoffs past, so I don't mind going that route as a cheaper alternative for Nuggets exposure. The Clippers are a tough matchup, but Jokic and Murray should both play close to 40 minutes.
Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter and Christian Braun are all playable in the mid-range of the salary tiers. Gordon has a few different paths to reach a ceiling, so he would be my preference over Porter and Braun, who are more scoring dependent.
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
- Total: 220
- Spread: NYK -7
Pistons NBA DFS Breakdown
Cade Cunningham has slate breaking ability in any matchup. He is priced close enough to Giannis, Jokic and Luka that I think he comes in at pretty modest ownership. Jalen Duren has a fantastic ceiling at his price tag. He was rarely extended beyond 30 minutes during the regular season, but that could change now that we have reached the Playoffs.
Of the cheaper Pistons, Tobias Harris has the safest floor. There isn't a ton of ceiling, but he could certainly put up reasonable production for his cost. Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway are volatile options that probably need to run into a big shooting performance to matter for tournaments.
Knicks NBA DFS Breakdown
Knicks stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson each have the ability to put up tops scores on the slate, and we know Head Coach Tom Thibodeau is not afraid to run his guys for 40+ minutes. Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges all have appeal for that very reason. Anunoby flashed incredible ceiling while Jalen Brunson was down late in the season, but I slightly prefer Hart now that Brunson is back in the lineup. Mitchell Robinson is a deep GPP flyer that could run into a several blocks and put up a decent score for his price in limited paying time.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Total: 216
- Spread: LAL -4
Timberwolves NBA DFS Breakdown
Anthony Edwards is under $9,000 on DK and posted two 40-point performances in the final week of the regular season. He is tougher to get to on FD, but represents an intriguing large-field GPP pivot given his immense ceiling.
Rudy Gobert took his game to another level over the past month. He was much more involved in the offense was far outproducing his current salary on a nightly basis. The additional scoring, added to Gobert's elite rebounding and shot blocking, make him an attractive target.
Mike Conley and Donte DiVincenzo are both interesting salary saving options. The minutes are volatile (and likely negatively correlated), but getting the right Wolves Guard might be an important piece of the puzzle today.
Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid have lacked ceiling since Julius Randle returned to the lineup and Rudy Gobert upped his production. Randle has a solid floor, but I prefer Edwards and Gobert if chasing ceiling from the Wolves.
Lakers NBA DFS Breakdown
Luka Doncic and LeBron James certainly possess the upside to break the slate. I prefer Luka if choosing between the two, and I think he will be less popular than Giannis and Jokic given the presence of LeBron.
Austin Reaves has a fair price in the $7,000-range, and he has flashed huge upside at times this season. His path to a ceiling is much more difficult with Luka in town, but crazier things have happened.
Rui Hachimura is the only salary saver I have interest in targeting from the Lakers. He was consistently playing 30+ minutes to close out the regular season.
NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks
High
Mid
- James Harden, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Kawhi Leonard, Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Jamal Murray, Pascal Siakam, Rudy Gobert, Jalen Duren, Aaron Gordon, Tobias Harris
Value
- Bobby Portis, Andrew Nembhard, Rui Hachimura, Kevin Porter, Donte DiVincenzo, Aaron Nesmith, Mike Conley, Kris Dunn
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.