Happy Friday, April 18th, we have the NBA Play-In tournament's finale as the eight seeds in each conference will be determined. The winners become the eight-seed in the postseason and the loser will be eliminated.

The stars are out as Anthony Davis, Tyler Herro, Trae Young, and Ja Morant are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.

 

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/18

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks

  • Total: 218.5
  • Spread: MIA -1

Heat NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 9th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 27th

In their first game of the play-in tournament against the Bulls, the Heat stayed true to who they are; playing 10 guys. They played 17-37 minutes and the starters lost a couple of minutes to garbage time too. Tyler Herro was fantastic in their first game scoring 38 actual points and got whatever he wanted offensively. He should have a tougher time with Dyson Daniels, but he's still a solid option. It's hard to play Alec Burks because he basically plays two shifts; to start the game and to start the third quarter. Davion Mitchell looks really solid off the bench because he's going to play well into the 30s in terms of minutes and he's playing his best basketball possibly ever and has averaged .99 FP/min since the start of April.

Andrew Wiggins looks like one of the better mid-tier options of the day. He's a very good USG guy, very solid per minute producer averaging nearly 1.2 FP/min since the break. Duncan Robinson should play mid-teens minutes and is probably a little too expensive. I don't mind getting to Kyle Anderson if Nikola Jovic is out again. It's sketchy if Jovic plays.

I'm very interested in Bam Adebayo. Adebayo at $9.2K is expensive, but this spot is fantastic. He could thrive as Tyler Herro is guarded by Dyson Daniels throughout this game. If Adebayo's shot is falling, he has a massive ceiling because he's good peripherally. Kel'el Ware is simply not going to play enough minutes. You can only use him in large-field GPPs.

Hawks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 21st
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 6th

The Hawks looked awful against the Orlando Magic in their opening play-in tournament game and this isn't going to get any easier. Trae Young is going to play 40-plus minutes as he played 40 against the Magic and he was thrown out with four minutes to go. He's going to be hounded by Davion Mitchell here for what that's worth. 

The rest of the guard room is interesting as Dyson Daniels has a high ceiling, especially when he scores because he's so elite peripherally. Caris LeVert played 25 minutes last game and had a 22% USG, he just missed all (most) of his shots going 3-for-11 from the floor. They barely used Vit Krejci and Terance Mann last game and Mann has the best chance to do so.

Although Zaccharie Risacher starts and played 28 minutes, I'm not sure he's going to close either half in a close, competitive game. Georges Niang closed both of them as the veteran was given nearly 24 minutes in this one and he was super efficient from the floor. I like Niang as a pivot off of Mouhamed Gueye who's starting and playing nearly the same minutes. Gueye has been better per minute but he's 2x higher owned.

Onyeka Okongwu has a tough matchup but if he stays out of foul trouble, he's going to approach 40 minutes so they don't have to play Dominick Barlow.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies

  • Total: 221.5
  • Spread: MEM -6.5

Mavericks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 24th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 8th

The Mavericks ran a 10-man rotation in their opening play-in tournament game and that's probably going to be the recipe here again. They completely axed Spencer Dinwiddie and used Naji Marshall as their starting point-guard while Brandon Williams and Dante Exum played as well. Williams was elite offensively in this game scoring 17 points in 19 minutes while posting a 25% USG. Exum played his most minutes since returning from injury (19) but he was really good, so if that level of production slips at all will he continue to play that much?

It was a vintage Klay Thompson performance in the postseason scoring 23 points, making five threes, and posting 38 DKP and his price didn't budge. They need his spacing as they run their double-big starting lineup. We mentioned Marshall started and he played 29 minutes, but I think he's a little too expensive for my liking.

Two forwards I have interest in are Anthony Davis and P.J. Washington. Washington played 37 minutes and was pacing for 39 before losing two minutes to blowout. Washington was a 1 FP/min after the All-Star break without Kyrie Irving. He's solid. Anthony Davis is going to be really popular but looks great here. He had a 32% USG in the play-in game and was one rebound shy of a monster double-double. 

It's hard for me to want to play either center in Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford because of their minutes and their price points.

Grizzlies NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 18th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 3rd

Everyone is playing the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. They currently have SIX players over 30% rostered. They played the shortest rotation of these four teams on the slate playing basically eight, including those six popular players all playing 26-plus and five of them (minus Santi Aldama) playing 32 or more.

Scotty Pippen Jr. is going to be extremely popular now that Memphis moved him into the starting lineup. He's their best perimeter defender. I do wonder if they have him chase Klay Thompson around or, because of the size of Dallas, they use Santi Aldama in their starting lineup over him. The primary news here is whether or not Ja Morant plays. The expectation is Morant plays but he didn't practice on Thursday, for what that's worth. He looks solid if he suits up. Dallas has nobody laterally that can keep him in front of them.

Desmond Bane can be an elite shot maker at times and he showed that in their first play-in game. If Ja Morant doesn't play, Bane's ownership will sky rocket. Luke Kennard probably doesn't play enough minutes if Morant plays, but he is at least in the rotation..we think.

Things haven't been the same for Jaren Jackson since Taylor Jenkins was fired and his price has actually gone up $400 since their first play-in game. I'm OK with JJJ if Morant plays and he's elite if he doesn't. Santi Aldama is a great value as his price has dipped below $5K on DK. I like Zach Edey as he continues to play 30-plus minutes and dominate on the glass. That should continue to be the case with the lineup the Mavericks continue to play.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value