NBA DFS Picks & Playbook for Today’s Games: March 7th
Published: Mar 07, 2024
We have a seven-game NBA DFS main slate on Thursday, March 7th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have plenty of stars with Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler, Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, and Nikola Jokic taking the floor.
Things are getting interesting around the league as the playoff push continues for plenty of teams. We only have two teams on the main slate on the second leg of a back-to-back.
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NBA Injury Report for Today, 3/7
QUESTIONABLE
- Jaylen Brown
- Ochai Agbaji
- Lonnie Walker IV – mid-day downgrade (illness)
OUT
- Victor Wembanyama
- Devin Booker
- Karl-Anthony Towns
- Tyler Herro
- Cam Thomas
- Ben Simmons
- Cameron Johnson
- Bennedict Mathurin
- Bruce Brown
- Kevin Love
- Quentin Grimes
- Day'Ron Sharpe
DOUBTFUL
PROBABLE
NBA Teams on Back-to-Backs Today
Pace Up Spots
Pace definition: Pace is the total number of possessions a team uses in a game.
*key* Green is elite pace of play, Blue is decent pace of play, & Red is slow pace of play.
Green = Fast Paced team
Blue = Neutral Paced team
Red = Slow Paced team
- Indiana Pacers - 2nd (102.6)
- San Antonio Spurs - 3rd (102.2)
- Dallas Mavericks - 8th (100.9)
- Detroit Pistons - 10th (100.8)
- Golden State Warriors - 11th (100.4)
- Sacramento Kings - 12th (100.2)
- Toronto Raptors - 13th (99.8)
- Phoenix Suns - 15th (99.5)
- Boston Celtics - 19th (98.8)
- Minnesota Timberwolves - 24th (98.1)
- Brooklyn Nets - 25th (98)
- Denver Nuggets - 27th (97.5)
- Miami Heat - 28th (97.4)
- Chicago Bulls - 29th (96.9)
Defensive Ratings
- Detroit Pistons - 29th
- Indiana Pacers - 27th
- Toronto Raptors - 24th
- Dallas Mavericks - 23rd
- San Antonio Spurs - 22nd
- Sacramento Kings - 20th
- Brooklyn Nets - 19th
- Golden State Warriors - 17th
- Chicago Bulls - 16th
- Phoenix Suns - 12th
- Denver Nuggets - 9th
- Miami Heat - 8th
- Boston Celtics - 2nd
- Minnesota Timberwolves - 1st
Notable NBA Game Totals Today, 3/7
- San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings - 236.5 (SAC -10.5)
- Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns - 232.5 (PHX -10.5)
- Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks - 229.5 (DAL -4.5)
- Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers - 228.5 (IND -1.5)
Top-Tier NBA DFS Core Plays
What more needs to be said? This is a pace-down spot against a top-10 defense. OK. We’ve been here before. Luka had 70 DKP in a 20-point loss against Boston. He’s the slate's top play, and it’s not even close.
Durant’s nearly a 1.5 FP/min guy without Devin Booker on the floor this year. It’s unlikely we see the 34-shot Durant again in this one, but definitely on my radar as a spend-up and a potential triple-double threat against a bad Raptors defense.
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
One of today’s most popular plays today resides in Minnesota. Without Karl-Anthony Towns, Edwards is nearly a 1.4 FP/min player and gets a +3.5% USG bump up to 36%. It’s a massive pace-up spot against a bottom-five defense.
Mid-Tier NBA DFS Core Plays
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
Fox tied his career-high with 44 points on Wednesday and Fox is ROLLING right now. Fox has put up 50+ DKP in six of his last seven games. This spot against the Spurs is super elite as he’s averaging 60+ DKP/game against them this year.
It’s playoff time for Jimmy Butler as the Heat have hit their stride and are marching up the Eastern Conference standings. Butler has put up 49+ DKP in six of seven games. Dallas is a top-10 team in pace and bottom-10 in defense.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Cunningham had one bad game and his price dipped to 7.6K despite dropping 40+ DKP in six of seven games since the All-Star break. He’s averaged 49 DKP/game vs. BKN this year. Cunningham has a 30% USG and averages 1.2 FP/min and the minutes are back up to mid-to-high 30s in competitive games.
Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
Minutes minutes minutes minutes. He’s played 38+ minutes in five of six games overall and in each of those games Gobert has put up 40+ DKP and is now without Karl-Anthony Towns. Gobert averages 1.1 FP/min without KAT this year and is in a great spot against Indiana here.
Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs
Vassell has been fantastic since the All-Star break putting up 37+ DKP in six of seven games and has topped 50 DKP twice. He’s going to need to make that a third 50 ball tonight with Victor Wembanyama out. With Wemby out, Vassell has a 26.3% USG and averages 1.08 FP/min.
Bradley Beal & Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix Suns
Both guys see usage and FP/min bumps without Devin Booker. If Nurk is going to continue to play 30+ minutes then he’s a great mid-tier option and if Beal is going to see anywhere near 36 minutes again, he’s too cheap for his ceiling.
Olynyk is going to be deployed as the teams starting center and is nearly a 1.2 FP/min player with the Raptors. He’s put up 40+ DKP in two of his last three games in which he’s been extended in terms of minutes. He’s a matchup problem given his ability to dribble, playmake, and score as a seven-footer.
Dennis Schroder, Brooklyn Nets
Why would we not continue to go back to the Dennis Schroder well? He’s nearly at 1.2 FP/min with all of these players out and MAN is Brooklyn short-handed tonight. No Simmons, Thomas, Johnson, Sharpe, and possibly Lonnie Walker IV.
Value-Tier NBA DFS Core Plays
I find it interesting that Terry Rozier is 2x Duncan Robinson’s ownership. In theory, you would auto plug Rozier without Tyler Herro, but not so fast. Robinson’s cheaper, has better positional eligibility, and has been essentially the same FP/min player as Rozier. Rozier’s volume has been the only thing really superior to Robinson’s, but I’ll take the shot on lower owned DRob.
Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
It’s always interesting to see what Reid’s ownership is on a nightly basis. He’s not going to start, but he’s in for an increased role with Karl-Anthony Towns out. He’s over a FP/min player and is 1/8 Kyle Anderson’s ownership despite being the better fantasy player. Not saying I’m not interested in Anderson. Just pointing that out.
Zach Collins, Keldon Johnson & Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs
Collins checks in as the highest rostered player of the slate with Wemby out and he’s at a robust 1.13 FP/min without Wemby this year. Johnson’s also over a FP/min and sits at 25% USG rate. Sochan’s lagging behind with the FP & USG, but is still a solid value.
Kyle Anderson, Minnesota Timberwolves
We’ve seen Anderson starting in every situation the Minnesota big men have been out in and that’s not going to stop today. He’s a .89 FP/min player without KAT this year and anytime he’s been extended he’s been an excellent fantasy producer.
This is a GPP specific play, but Sheppard’s role in this Pacers’ lineup isn’t going anywhere. It might even grow with Bennedict Mathurin out. This is a perfect way to get a stars and scrubs lineup built with Luka Doncic.
DFS NBA Lineup Lock Updates & Late-News Core Play Section
*Section for players we are considering “core plays” based on late-breaking news & research
- Lonnie Walker IV is IN. I have a lot of interest here.
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Player Pool
| $ Tier | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Luka Dončić  $12,600 |  Anthony Edwards $9,300 |  Kevin Durant $10,200 |  Domantas Sabonis $10,800 |  Nikola Jokić $12,000 |
 De'Aaron Fox $9,500 |  Jimmy Butler $9,000 | ||||
| Medium |  Cade Cunningham $8,300 | Devin Vassell $7,700 |  Mikal Bridges $7,800 |  Kelly Olynyk $6,500 |  Zach Collins $6,100 |
| Dennis Schröder $6,600 |  P.J. Washington $6,200 | Rudy Gobert $8,600 | |||
 Jusuf Nurkić $7,800 | |||||
| Low | Tre Jones $5,500 |  Duncan Robinson $5,900 | Keldon Johnson $5,700 | Naz Reid $5,900 | Isaiah Stewart $5,300 |
 Dennis Smith $5,300 |  Ben Sheppard $4,200 | Kyle Anderson $5,500 | Dorian Finney-Smith $4,900 | ||
| Jaden McDaniels $5,200 | Nikola Jović $4,200 | ||||
 Lonnie Walker $4,800 |
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.