NBA Best Bets Today, 4/13: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Saturday
Meatloaf on back to back betting days! The bet of the night was successful once again, but it came at a price. Josh Giddey did not play, and the spread was teased down to remove the juice from Giddey’s rebounding proposition. The Chicago Bulls smashed the spread with a 119 - 89 victory over the Washington Wizards, thus making a spread of -5.0 end with odds of -640. But a win is a win.
The Denver Nuggets made us sweat for the -7.0 spread against the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis led for most of the game, and then in the Nuggets best defensive fourth quarter of the season, they held the Grizzlies to just 1 point over the last 6+ minutes of the game.
Although the Brooklyn Nets lost by 26 points, and were unable to cover the +19.5 spread, the Bulls and Nuggets wagers combined for a return of investment of +0.08 units. That puts Fantasy Alarm at eight wins over the last ten bets and proved once again that, ‘Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad’.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/13
Much like Samwise and Frodo Baggins arriving at the gates of Mordor, it would appear the Association’s quest is coming to an end. But nay. Although the NBA regular season concludes with all thirty teams playing today, the quest is not finished for all. Just as the case was for Sam and Frodo, the real climb begins for those that desire to be ring bearers. 16 steps, or wins, separates each team (and player) from irrelevant to immortal.
There are three NBA best bets today, and the first features two teams who will play each other in just two more days.
Magic vs Hawks Prediction: Total Under 220.5 Points (-110 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Atlanta Hawks host the Orlando Magic at State Farm Arena, before heading to Orlando to play at the Kia Center Tuesday. Both teams will sit their starters, and rely on bench players, G-league players, and two-way contract players to finish today’s game. Neither team will give away strategy or playbook secrets for film review either.
That is why the under is suggested in a game featuring one of the best defensive teams in the Association. In fact the Orlando Magic are the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing only 105.4 points per game. Even without their starters the defensive effort will be there for Orlando as it is the foundation of their philosophy.
The fact this match is set at 220.5 is fully on the Hawks who average 118.2 points per game. Orlando averages 105.4 points per game (yes the same amount as they allow), and together the total is 223.6 points per game. Shaving off three points from their combined season average, with backups starting, does not seem like an accurate prediction. The rhythm and flow of each team will be off, and the combination of any five players on the court will likely not have much playing time together.
Defense should be displayed from both teams, and this game should be a low scoring match. It would not be surprising if the total is closer to 200 than it is 220. Put a unit on Bet365 right now, and for those joining us for the playoffs, make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this column.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Prediction: Total Under 227.5 Points (-112 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The second NBA best bet today has a similar theme as the first one. The Cleveland Cavaliers host their rival, the Indiana Pacers at Rocket Arena, and this will be another match featuring the second units of each team. Both teams have secured their playoff spots, and have nothing to gain with a victory, nor anything to lose with a loss.
For the Pacers their two best stars, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, have been declared out. Ben Sheppard is listed as doubtful as well. The remaining starters may only play their normal first half minutes, if that much. Head Coach Rick Carlisle will use caution with his stars, and keep his starters rested for their fast paced playoff attack.
For the Cavaliers a long list of players are out; Max Struss, Dean Wade, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Isaac Okoro, Evan Mobley, Sam Merrill, Ty Jerome, and De’Andre Hunter. That is nine players that are out, and leaves just eight players on their active roster, including starter Jarrett Allen. Allen may play his average of 28.3 minutes, or could play much less, putting more minutes on Tristan Thompson.
Either way Cleveland players are not going to get many breaks, nor be able to switch out in the closing seconds of quarters. Come the fourth quarter, they will be an exhausted group, with tired legs and likely several missed field goals. Although the Pacers will have starters and much more depth, they will be playing base offense and defense. They could even use as much clock as possible by slowing down the game with half court offenses. Something they rarely do.
The thought was the Hawks versus Magic game had too high a total at 220.5, and the thought is the same for the Pacers vs Cavaliers. 227.5 would be difficult with each team’s full starting lineup, much less against third and fourth string players. Put a unit on the under at FanDuel and make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for those that have not downloaded the sports betting app.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/13
With 15 games in action, the possibilities for the last NBA best bet of the regular season are numerous. However, with 222 winners out of 445 NBA best bet suggestions (and +25.79 units thus far), earning Meatloaf for a third consecutive betting day would ensure a 50% accurate season. The true standard of any professional bettor.
With that in mind a risky, two fold same game parlay is suggested for the last NBA best bet today. Afterall, Sam and Frodo didn’t get to Mount Doom without risk being taken.
Lakers vs Trail Blazers Prediction: Portland -4.0 & Donovan Clingan 13+ Rebounds (+470 on Draftkings Sportsbook)
The Portland Trail Blazers host the Los Angeles Lakers on fan appreciation night at the Moda Center. Portland fans have a lot to be happy about despite a 35 - 46 record, they can finish with 36 wins and the potential for a much improved 2025-26 season. They also have a positive record at home with a 21 - 19 record, and Head Coach Chauncey Billups has this team on an upward projection.
A young and talented team has begun to show the first signs of blossoms, after what felt like a cold and harsh winter. Portland is in the tough Northwest Division which has the best team in the Western Conference, the reigning MVP, and a team that made it to the Western Conference Finals last year… There are no easy routes within the division.
Although the young backcourt receives much of the praise, the young front court has shown a lot of promise. The seventh overall pick of the 2024 draft, Donovan Clingan, is a big part of it. The former Connecticut Husky not only stands tall at 7’ 2”, but has played big minutes since the All-Star break.
DeAndre Ayton has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, which has allowed the rookie to have valuable experience. He has played against elite centers such as Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Walker Kessler, and Isaiah Hartenstein… and that is only within the division. Iron has sharpened iron, and although Clingan’s season averages don't reflect it, he is a rebounding machine.
Clingan averages 7.8 rebounds per game, but that is mostly due to low volume minutes at the beginning of the season. He has played 27 or more minutes in seven straight games, and has logged rebounding totals of; 15, 9 , 8, 18, 13, 7, and 10. His rebounding line is set at 9.5 against the Lakers, but has been teased up to 13+ for this match.
The logic behind it being he has recorded that many in three of his last five matches, and the Lakers are relatively small at center. Not only that, Los Angeles has six players listed out, 3 players listed as questionable, and one player marked as probable. Also adding to Clingan’s advantage is he is one of the few healthy players in Portland’s front court. DeAndre Ayton, and Jerami Grant are both listed as out, while Deni Avdija is listed as doubtful.
This will create more minutes and more rebounding opportunities for Clingan. Portland is listed as a -4.0 favorite with the Lakers having nothing to gain or lose in this match. Can the Trail Blazers win with most of their starting roster out?
As mentioned it is a risk, and so is teasing up Clingan’s rebounding line, but a risk that could put an exclamation point on the regular season. Put a unit on the same game parlay at DraftKings right now! For those that are new to the sports betting app, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer. A total of +6.52 units are obtainable today, make sure to place the NBA best bets at the best odds possible. See you in the play-in!
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Ivica Zubac had a productive outing, finishing with 27 points (11-of-15 FGs, 5-of-8 FTs), five rebounds, one assist and two blocks in the Game 5 loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Zubac continued to score the ball well, finishing with a series-high in points on efficient shooting. However, Zubac’s usual impact on the glass was absent as he secured just five rebounds in Game 5 after tallying at least nine in the previous four, with his one assist also tying his lowest output of the series. Down in the series 3-2, the Clippers head back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday, where they face a must-win situation to keep their season alive.
James Harden concluded Tuesday’s Game 5 loss to the Nuggets with 11 points (3-of-9 FGs, 5-of-8 FTs), eight rebounds, five assists and two steals in 35 minutes.
Harden had a quiet night on Tuesday, barely cracking double figures in scoring and failing to register double-digit shot attempts. The 2018 NBA MVP has faced a stifling Nuggets defense that, over the last few games, has forced the ball out of his hands, leading to inferior performances compared to earlier games in the series. Harden will look for a bounce-back performance on Thursday as he tries to lead the Clippers to a season-saving victory in Game 6.
Kawhi Leonard stuffed the stat sheet in Tuesday’s Game 5 loss to the Nuggets, posting 20 points (8-of-15 FGs, 3-of-7 FTs), nine rebounds, 11 assists, one steal, two blocks and one three-pointer.
Leonard did a little bit of everything for the Clippers in Game 5. The two-time NBA Finals MVP posted a series-high in assists and also hit the glass hard, resulting in a near-triple-double. Leonard has scored at least 20 points in all five games of this series. However, the Clippers may need even more from him going forward as they look to extend their season beyond Thursday’s Game 6 at the Intuit Dome.
Nikola Jokic earned a triple-double in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win on Tuesday over the Clippers, finishing with 13 points (4-of-13 FGs, 4-of-5 FTs), 10 rebounds, 12 assists, one steal, two blocks and one three-pointer.
The three-time NBA MVP had a relatively quiet game by his standards, but still came away with his third triple-double of the series. Jokic struggled with shooting efficiency, and his scoring output was the lowest of the series. Yet, his points were not as necessary in this game, given how well the rest of the Nuggets shot the ball. Nevertheless, Jokic will be in line for another big performance on Thursday when the Nuggets face the Clippers in Game 6.
Russell Westbrook came off the bench and produced 21 points (8-of-15 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), one rebound, one assist and three three-pointers in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win over the Clippers on Tuesday.
Westbrook was electric in his first game back in the lineup following a foot injury that kept him out of Game 4. His second-quarter scoring ignited the crowd and helped set the table for what would be his highest-scoring game of the postseason. The 2017 NBA MVP has had himself a nice series thus far from a scoring standpoint and will have a chance to end his former team’s season on Thursday in Game 6.
Jamal Murray had a dominant Game 5 performance in the Nuggets’ win over the Clippers on Tuesday, tallying 43 points (17-of-26 FGs, 1-of-1 FTs), five rebounds, seven assists, three steals, one block and eight three-pointers.
Fresh off a series-low 13 points in Game 4, Murray exploded for a series-high on Tuesday. He totaled nearly as many three-pointers in this game as he had in the previous four combined, while still managing to dish out seven assists. Murray got hot early in this one and never cooled off, and now has provided his Nuggets the opportunity on Thursday in Game 6 to eliminate the Clippers for the second time in the last five seasons.