It is crazy how one can be so incredibly correct with a prediction, and yet be so wrong also. This is what happened for the projections of the Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks game yesterday. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets knew Luka Doncic would have a great game, that is why two bets were suggested on him. That information was given out when Kyrie Irving was supposed to play. Once he was declared out, Doncic had the game of his career with seventy-three points. A bad day to be on his rebounds and assist line. To be fair Luka did have ten rebounds, gave up the ball twice on missed layups, and Tim Hardaway Jr. missed four threes which would have given Doncic the easy triple double… such is betting though. A betting mantra is that yesterday's decisions have no bearing on today’s angles. 

There are ten great NBA games today, three of which are on national television (ABC). These channels in theory are free, and for some it could be their first game to watch of the season. The day begins with the Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons in a ‘high noon saloon’ showdown, with a 12:00 PM ET tip off. There will be a wager in this match as these teams meet for the second time in two weeks. The battle of MVP’s is back on as well, as the Philadelphia 76ers travel to Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets. There will be a teased parlay that takes place in a 5:30 PM ET tip off between two of the best centers of this century. There is also a bet on the 8:30 PM ET match at the Frost Bank Center between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs, featuring rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama. 

 

BET OF THE NIGHT

JALEN DUREN OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)

This column continues to attack the rebounding line against the Washington Wizards, and tonight is not an exception. Jalen Duren was a hot bet earlier in this month, then went through a dip in production, and now is back to a ten plus rebound center. He is averaging 11.3 per game and has a favorable matchup against the Wizards. J. Duren earned nineteen rebounds in their last meeting on January fifteenth, and that number is obtainable again. The Wizards still allow the most rebounds to opposing teams with a 57.7 per game average. That number increases to 58.3 when on the road, which they are today. On DraftKings and MGM, Duren’s rebounding line is at 11.5 with heavy juice on the over, (-160). The risk of one more rebound seemed worth it at standard prop odds of (-115) on FanDuel. Trust the unit on the young man against the worst rebounding team in the league.

PLAYER PROP OF THE NIGHT

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA OVER 2.5 BLOCKS (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook; 2 UNITS)

This bet has been successful the four times it has been mentioned in this column. Victor Wembanyama is on a rhythm of covering and not covering this prop, alternating every other game. Yesterday he only blocked two shots and is on pace to get at least three tonight. After all it’s a French-on-French battle of big men. Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves travel to the Alamo City and play Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. Wembanyama’s minutes are increasing with over twenty-six in his last six games played. If Wembanyama is matched up on Karl-Anthony Towns tonight he will have more opportunities for blocks, as Towns has 74 field goal attempts in his last three games. Wembanyama only earned one block in their previous match, but that was almost two months ago. The Spurs are playing better basketball, Wembanyama is more experienced, and the rookie has been profitable for this column. Trust him with two units tonight. 

PARLAY OF THE NIGHT

DENVER NUGGETS (ML) AND NIKOLA JOKIC 10+ REBOUNDS (-115 BetMGM)

The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in what is no doubt the marque match of a triple-header of NBA action on ABC. Wedged in the middle at 5:00 PM ET, which is great for all time zones, is a match of MVPs. The winners of the previous three MVPs meet on the hardwood for the second time in eleven days. Last time Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers got the best of Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. Last year Joel Embiid did not play in Denver and the Nuggets blew the 76ers out. The spread is currently (-5.5) which seems high, but six points is one minute in the NBA. The Nuggets were utterly embarrassed at Madison Square Garden by the New York Knicks Thursday, and they usually respond well. The defending champions have not lost back-to-back games since early December, and this game may not be a rivalry for the players, but it is for the fans. Expect Ball Arena to be rocking on a cold Colorado winter day. Enjoy the two best players of this decade, and arguably all-time. 

DRAFTKINGS SPORTBOOK 33% BOOST FOUR-LEG MINIMUM: 2X2 SAME GAME PARLAY

UTAH JAZZ -4 AND SIMONE FONTECCHIO OVER 3.5 REBOUNDS
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES -6 AND VICTOR WEMBANYAMA 8+ REBOUNDS; $25 BET MAX

There are three boosts on draftkings for the magnificent NBA action today. One bet is any bet you would like which I applied to a future bet on an NBA Champion. You use it however you would like. There is one for live action, and one for a four-leg same game or same game parlay. This is a teased down bet on the spreads of two teams with the highest differential on the moneyline. The Utah Jazz have been teased down to (-4) and the Minnesota Timberwolves have been teased down to (-6). Victor Wembanyama’s rebounding line has been teased down to eight or more rebounds, and Simone Fontecchio’s rebounding line has been left as is. He is on a roll and was successful two days ago in this column. This bet gets boosted to +447 and a $25 wager returns $136.83… not too shabby for a mostly teased down line. Also this bet has a pro move safeguarding the bet with the removal of the hook. Implying that should the Jazz win by four, the Timberwolves win by six, and the two player props are successful it would be a winning bet. It would be a lower amount, but still a win. 

Thank you for reading and remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs. Also check out the NBA DFS show with Jon and James as they have been on a roll lately.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise