MLB DFS Value Plays July 5: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Picks
Welcome to Wednesday! I hope everyone had a fantastic 4th and woke up with all their fingers still attached. Let’s keep the celebrations going today with some winning MLB DFS lineups, as we are also only five days away from the all-star break. We get a great 11-game slate today on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 PM EST. Today’s slate of games is highlighted by Justin Steele and Pablo Lopez taking the mound, who are both having a fantastic season and are establishing themselves as true aces. There are plenty of other interesting arms that provide upside across the board. On the offensive side, some of the best lineups to target today include the Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and the San Francisco Giants. Plenty of different ways to construct a winning lineup, so let’s jump into some of my favorite value options of the day!
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers (DraftKings: $8,300 / FanDuel: $9,900)
Bobby Miller isn’t as much of a value play on FanDuel, where he is the second highest-priced starting pitcher, but he is still usable there (or you could pivot to Justin Steele as the cheaper option), and on DraftKings he is going for a steal of a price. The last few games haven’t quite been the results you want from Bobby Miller, with only 12 strikeouts in his last 14.2 innings and a rough 9.39 ERA, but that isn’t scaring me away from Bobby today. The Pirates have not been a strong offense lately, and there the talent is there for Bobby to bounce back and put up a great outing today. This is only his 8th start in the majors, so going through some struggles is expected, and hopefully, they will be short-lived.
Michael Soroka, Atlanta Braves (DraftKings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $9,300)
This will only be Soroka’s 4th start of the season (and only his 4th start since early 2020 when he made 3 starts), but he just put up a quality start against the Marlins while striking out 7. We saw how good Soroka could be back in 2019 when he put up a full season with a 2.68 ERA, and hopefully, that is the form he is returning to now that he is finally healthy. While Cleveland doesn’t strike out a lot, this still should be a good matchup for Soroka to go get another quality start and a win while putting up a solid line.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Tom Murphy, C Houston Astros (DraftKings: $2,700 / FanDuel: $2,500)
Tom Murphy didn’t see much playing time across June, but over the last week, he has 4 starts, including one at DH. Over those 4 starts, he has 7 hits, including 2 homers, and over his last 10 starts, he has 4 homers along with a 1.349 OPS, which should be enough to warrant Murphy getting into the lineup more often for the Mariners. If he does get the start, I am definitely putting him in my lineup at this cheap price with how hot he is at the plate right now, even against Alex Cobb, who has been pitching well for the San Francisco Giants this season.
Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B Baltimore Orioles (DraftKings: $3,200 / FanDuel: $2,700)
Jordan Westburg tore up AAA this season, slashing .295/.372/.567 through 67 games with 18 home runs and 6 stolen bases. It is only a matter of time before we see his first homer in the big leagues. He has still looked solid at the plate in his first 7 games, with a .304 average and only 2 strikeouts. The price is still really low after his call-up, but it could rise quickly as he begins to get used to major-league pitching, so take advantage now while you can get him for this cheap.
Anthony Volpe, SS New York Yankees (DraftKings: $3,400 / FanDuel: $2,900)
Anthony Volpe just had an 8-game hitting streak come to an end yesterday, but over that stretch Volpe slashed .500/.516/.733 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homer, and a steal. Volpe has really turned it up at the plate for the Yankees, and it appears letting Volpe work through his struggles at the plate instead of sending him down might have been the right move because he has slowly turned into a solid contributor to the Yankee's offense. Dean Kremer has a lot of volatility, and if he has a day where he struggles, both Volpe and the Yankees could score a lot.
Joey Gallo, OF Minnesota Twins (DraftKings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $2,700)
Joey Gallo has 4 homers over his last 8 starts after going through about a monthlong stretch without a home run. Alec Marsh gave up 2 homers in his first 4 innings of major league work for the Kansas City Royals, and the lefty power bats for the Twins should be gearing up to add to that today. Hopefully, we see this uptick in homers recently from Gallo continue. He also was in the 2-hole for the start yesterday against the Royals, so if he remains there, that adds even more value to him at this price.
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Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.