MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 10: Andrew Abbott Gets The Call
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by a couple of prospects from the Cincinnati Reds farm system named Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott. These are the gems on the waiver wire this week, and get ready to spend most, if not all of your FAAB if you want De La Cruz in particular. Unfortunate news for Jacob deGrom makes him droppable in all redraft formats, Alek Manoah is no longer in the Toronto rotation, and Louie Varland is losing some fantasy steam. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .400 | 1 | Luis Arraez | .449 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .674 |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | .335 | 2 | Juan Soto | .421 | 2 | J.D. Martinez | .624 |
| 3 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .327 | 3 | LaMonte Wade Jr. Jr. | .420 | 3 | Yordan Alvarez | .589 |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | .324 | 4 | Ryan Noda | .410 | 4 | Freddie Freeman | .576 |
| 5 | Yandy Diaz | .315 | T5 | Yandy Diaz | .408 | 5 | Corbin Carroll | .575 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .343 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .476 | 1 | Aaron Judge | 62.6% |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | .339 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .447 | 2 | Matt Chapman | 60.1% |
| 3 | Luis Arraez | .334 | 3 | Freddie Freeman | .428 | 3 | Joey Gallo | 59.2% |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | .327 | 4 | Yordan Alvarez | .420 | 4 | Juan Soto | 58.2% |
| 5 | Yandy Diaz | .313 | 5 | Sean Murphy | .419 | 5 | Yandy Diaz | 55.8% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 10 | Ramon Laureano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | .353/.463/.471 |
| 9 | Josh Naylor | 36 | 11 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 2 | .500/.550/.778 |
| 8 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | 34 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 4 | .559/.559/.941 |
| 7 | Nick Pratto | 25 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | .320/.357/.600 |
| 6 | Luis Arraez | 25 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | .600/.615/.760 |
| 6 | Mauricio Dubon | 29 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .379/.367/.586 |
| 6 | Shohei Ohtani | 24 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | .458/.519/.958 |
| 6 | Joey Wendle | 23 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .435/.458/.739 |
| 6 | Yandy Diaz | 26 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | .346/.393/.423 |
| 6 | Marcell Ozuna | 20 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | .400/.478/.650 |
| 6 | Garrett Stubbs | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | .375/.375/.562 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
Come on, this has to be no surprise, right? Two of the top prospects in the Reds farm system come up within the same week and spark some life in this team! You love to see it! Abbott’s prolific strikeout numbers in the minors are going to warrant some serious FAAB budget, and he struck out six batters over six scoreless innings in his debut against the Brewers. From the sounds of it, he’s going to get a chance to stick in the rotation, which makes sense, given the current state of affairs.
Simply put, there isn’t much to say about Elly De La Cruz. He’s one of the “toolsiest” prospects in the game, and in four games since his promotion, he’s hitting .333 with a .733 SLG, four runs scored, one home run, one stolen base, a 99.1 mph average exit velocity and 83.3 percent hard hit rate. The strikeouts are a bit high right now, but cut the 21-year-old some slack. I’m not kidding when I say he’s worth every single dollar of your FAAB budget you have left. He may only need 75-80 games before he has double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and that may be too conservative.
Julio Teheran, Milwaukee Brewers
I’ll be the first to admit that the wheels are going to come off the Teheran wagon sooner rather than later. He’s been great for Milwaukee, posting a 1.56 ERA and 90.9 LOB% through his first three starts, which have included matchups against the Giants, at Toronto, and at Cincinnati. He’s primarily a sinker and slider guy this season, and neither of those two pitches have generated many whiffs this season. His curveball and fastball have been great in that department, but he won’t use his curveball against left-handed hitters. I’m all for riding the hot hand, and I think you can get a couple of more starts out of Teheran. However, once his numbers start getting closer to those expected statistics, it’s time to drop the veteran righty.
Honorable Mention: Gary Sanchez, Joey Wiemer, Francisco Alvarez, Jack Suwinski, Jake Fraley, Nolan Jones
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers
Baez is a streaky guy, we all know that, so when these slumps come, it’s something we just have to stick out. The only problem with the slump is that he’s not doing anything to even help a bit. His hits that are few and far between aren’t home runs, he’s not driving guys in, and he has just two stolen base attempts in the last month! His plate discipline metrics are improved from past years, but he’s still leaving the zone too much, and in the early part of June, he has a 20.2 percent swinging strike rate with a putrid 61.8 percent contact rate. Outside of deeper formats, Baez should be dropped, as the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze with the 30-year-old infielder.
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
Lindor’s 12 home runs, 43 RBI, and five stolen bases aren’t bad, but his .222/.296/.431 hasn’t done fantasy managers any favors, and his walk and strikeout rates have gone the wrong direction. Currently, his 7.9 percent walk rate would be his lowest since 2019, and his 22.4 percent strikeout rate would be the highest of his career, breaking his previous career high of 18.8 percent, which he posted last season. His contact metrics and plate discipline metrics are slightly better than last season, outside of his swinging strike rate, so there’s some room for optimism there. However, the saving grace with Lindor is that he’s always been a second half player. As the season goes, he gets going. For his career, here are his first and second half numbers extrapolated over a full 162 games (or 650 PA):
| AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | SB
| |
| 1st Half | .263 | .333 | .457 | 27 | 17 |
| 2nd Half | .291 | .349 | .497 | 29 | 19 |
It hasn’t been a start that fantasy managers had hoped for, but here’s to hoping you can buy just a bit more time until LIndor starts to turn things around for good.
Honorable Mention: Jacob deGrom, Alek Manoah, Tylor Megill, Brandon Williamson, Louie Varland
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
More Fantasy Baseball Content
Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report
Player News
Luke Raley (back) is out of the lineup Wednesday against the Angels.
Raley was scratched from Tuesday’s lineup after tweaking his back during batting practice, and he’ll miss at least one more game with the issue. Samad Taylor will start in Raley’s place and hit ninth while handling right field.
Alex Verdugo is not in the lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Rockies.
This appears to just be a day of rest for Verdugo. He’ll get a break against Colorado with Eddie Rosario starting in left field. Michael Harris II moves up to the leadoff spot in Verdugo’s absence.
Tommy Edman is not in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Marlins.
Edman will get a break for the series finale, but is out of the lineup for the second of three games against the Fish. Enrique Hernandez will get the start at second base against Cal Quantrill and the Miami bullpen and hit seventh.
Lance McCullers Jr. (elbow) will make his first start of 2025 against the White Sox on Sunday.
It will be the first time that McCullers has taken the mound since the World Series in 2022. He missed two seasons while recovering from a flexor tendon surgery. The 31-year-old will get a soft landing against the White Sox, but there’s obvious risk in a hurler who has had this much time off even with rehab starts. It’s fun to see McCullers back on the mound after such a lengthy absence, and since it’s Chicago on the other side it’s probably worth taking a chance.
Evan Carter went 2-for-4 with a triple for Triple-A Round Rock on Tuesday.
Carter has reached base safely in all 17 games at Triple-A this season to go along with five stolen bases. He’s also swatted two home runs and has a 1.027 OPS over his last 10 games. The batting average leaves a little to be desired, and it’s possible he’s chasing too much out of the zone, but there’s a lot to like about what he’s doing at Triple-A right now.
Alec Burleson is starting at first base and batting sixth for the Cardinals in Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Reds on Wednesday.
Burleson has only 83 plate appearances on the season but a decent .286/.337/.325 slash line. The power has not been there for him this season, and he doesn’t have a single barrel on the year, but the rest of his profile looks similar to last year. He may be being too passive in the strike zone, but the bigger issue is that the Cardinals don’t feel comfortable with him in the field. He’s playing first base today with Willson Contreras at DH since Brendan Donovan is shifting to the outfield and Nolan Gorman is at second base with Jordan Walker on the bench. This could become more of a regular occurrence if Walker continues to struggle, but, for now, it’s hard to see regular playing time for Burleson.