Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch 2024: Masyn Winn, Spencer Torkelson, More
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It’s time to check in with the MLB Week 10 Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch and see who the latest buy-low, sell-high trade candidates are this week.
The Ronald Acuna injury news has made a significant impact on the fantasy baseball landscape. Those who used that first-round pick on him are now scrambling to find help on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, but we all know there’s not enough there to replace the statistical production he provides. That means we need to explore the fantasy baseball trade market and see what our options might be.
Time to play ‘3 Up, 3 Down’.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Risers
Adam Duvall, OF Atlanta Braves
This is where we put on our Captain Obvious capes as we look to find a replacement for Acuna. Duvall has spent much of his time as the righthanded bat in a platoon with Jarred Kelenic, but will now see full-time at-bats for the foreseeable future, adding to his fantasy value. He’s hit safely in each of his last three games with home runs in back-to-back nights, but before we get all worked-up here, let’s take a long look at that .209 batting average.
Even just a cursory glance at Duvall’s stat sheets will show you that he’s got strong power but horrendous plate discipline. He’s a sink-or-swim guy, plain and simple. Don’t be fooled by the drop in his strikeout rate or the bump in his walks, because now, as a full-time player, the vast holes in his swing are going to rear their ugly head.
With a full complement of at-bats, we could get 20 homers out of him, but if you don’t have someone like a Luis Arraez or Shohei Ohtani on your roster, be careful you don’t plummet even further in the batting average/on-base percentage categories.
Masyn Winn, SS St. Louis Cardinals
Long forgotten by many who don’t listen to Jon Impemba on the MLB DFS Show, Winn is in the midst of a fantastic tear. He is currently riding a 16-game hitting streak in which he is slashing .356/.381/.559 with two home runs, eight RBI, six runs scored and two stolen bases.
We find him atop the Cardinals batting order when St. Louis is facing a lefty, and he should be a productive asset for the middle infield. Obviously, this streak will disappear, but that doesn’t mean the overall production is going to dip significantly.
He’s shown fantastic plate discipline, striking out less than 17-percent of the time and while that .350 BABIP is certainly helping boost the average, he’s typically a strong BABIP guy so the drop in average shouldn’t be alarming. He’s currently sitting at seven stolen bases but definitely has the potential to push past 20 on the season, so if you lost Acuna’s steals, Winn could help bring them back.
Cristopher Sanchez, SP Philadelphia Phillies
If you listened to the Phillies Front Office Insights inside our 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, then chances are, you already have Sanchez on your roster. If not, you may want to check waivers to see if he’s available because this guy is owned in fewer than 12-percent of leagues on ESPN and Yahoo. That’s nuts, considering the 3.15 ERA and close to a strikeout per inning.
Sure, the 1.45 WHIP is a little high, but here in May he’s trimmed that number down while boosting his K:BB ratio. Best of all, the underlying metrics for Sanchez shows even more improvement on the horizon. Through 10 starts and 54.1 innings, Sanchez is posting a 2.62 FIP with a 3.15 xFIP.
As a groundball pitcher – we’re talking a 60-percent rate – the defense behind him is always important and with Trea Turner expected to return in about two weeks, things will improve. It’s not that we want to crap on Edmundo Sosa, but Turner has better range. Once he returns, the Phillies also get into a soft spot in their schedule so more good things are still to come.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Fallers
Pablo Lopez, SP Minnesota Twins
Yes, this one hurts. We know. But what in the world is going on here with the Twins ace? He got roughed up during a few starts in April and after seemingly righting the ship in May, he’s now given up 13 earned runs over his last two starts which totaled to just 9.2 innings of work.
We might be able to forgive the outing against the Texas Rangers, but how are you going to cough up seven runs to the Nationals? The 5.25 ERA looks pretty gross, but we consider Lopez a solid buy-low candidate. Surely, his owners are insanely frustrated. But before you give up on him, check out the 3.81 FIP and 3.05 xFIP. Both indicate better days are ahead.
He’s still posting a 10.35 K/9, he’s cut back on the walks significantly and after back-to-back starts against the Astros and Yankees coming up, he’s got a fantastic stretch ahead facing the likes of Colorado (in Minnesota), Oakland, Seattle and Detroit. If you have him, keep him. If you don’t, go get him.
Josh Naylor, 1B Cleveland Guardians
Boy is this getting ugly. Sure, Naylor has 13 home runs on the season, but his .229 average and .315 OBP are pretty gross and very uncharacteristic of what we’ve seen from the Guardians first baseman over the past two seasons.
The month of May has just not been kind. He’s batting .165 for the month with a near-20-percent strikeout rate. For him, that’s bad. But be careful not to overreact. We should see some improvement. Turning to a player’s BABIP shouldn’t be the only place you look to see what’s happening, but Naylor’s .208 mark is so crazy out-of-whack with his career averages that you have to believe he’s getting extremely unlucky.
And the power he’s got on display right now – the .250 ISO – is a little high and may start to come down, but here at age-26, he is just entering his physical prime and is going to clear the 30-homer barrier this season.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B Detroit Tigers
Tork is easily one of the most frustrating players in MLB right now. After popping 31 home runs last season, the Tigers first baseman is struggling in a major way right now. The .218 batting average is not being submarined by a low BABIP and there don’t seem to be any major issues when breaking down his swing-rates.
But the barrel-rate is way down, the hard-hit rate is in the toilet and he’s popping the ball up in a major way. That 16.5-percent infield fly-ball rate is gross. Not as gross as that dismal 9.5-percent line-drive rate, but close. He is in dire need of a turnaround, but the question remains – where does it come from?
Last season, he made some improvements in the second half, but nothing that is so noticeable to think that he's going to be able to pull himself out of it for a second-straight year. Selling low is obviously a terrible option, but if you drafted Tork to be your first baseman this season, you need an improvement.