MLB DFS Playbook July 31: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 31, 2023
We have a nine-game MLB DFS main slate on Monday, July 31st, on DraftKings and FanDuel, as we're now just ONE day away from the MLB Trade Deadline. Players heading into tonight that might be traded that we liked and some that have us liking certain pitchers more depending on who's moved. The top tier of pitching is solid with Tyler Glasnow, Andrew Abbott, and Corbin Burnes are all over $10,000 on DraftKings. It is a Coors Field slate and stacks such as the Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres are going to be very popular. Be sure to check out all of our tools including the MLB Lineups page, MLB DFS Projections – powered by FanJections –, MLB DFS Ownership, and all of the rest of our tools HERE! Let's dive into today's playbook, core plays, and top stacks of the day!
MLB DFS Weather Center
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
There are a lot of interesting developments happening here as the weather here looks bad. There are bad thunderstorms in the area and that likely causes a lengthy delay and potentially a postponement as well. This game is VERY risky, especially because it starts a couple of hours after lineup lock.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: 7.5 Ks (-130)
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels: 6.5 Ks (-165)
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: 6.5 Ks (-115)
Domingo German, New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 6.5 Ks (+120)
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: 6.5 Ks (+125)
Best Odds for a Win
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves: -235
Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres: -208
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers: -197
J.P. France, Houston Astros: -191
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Glasnow has been incredible lately churning out great outing after great outing after great outing. He’s put up 23+ DKP in six straight starts thanks to striking out 7+ batters in each outing. He’s getting deep into games, keeping the ball on the ground, and missing bets. Now, he faces a Yankees offense that struck out 18 times on Sunday night and is in an absolute offensive free-fall right now.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Although the Washington Nationals don’t strike out all that much, who knows who will be on the team by the time this game starts? I know the trade deadline is tomorrow, but the Nationals have a lot of guys on the trade block so this team could be different by 7 pm. Burnes has looked great lately firing five straight quality starts, 18+ DKP in each, and has flashed a 40 FP ceiling TWICE as well. Over the last two weeks, Washington ranks 18th in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching. Burnes is in a great spot for a fifth win over his last six starts.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
This is one I’m struggling with a bit. The Angels went out and added two key pieces to their lineup in Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron to an already improving lineup. Over the last two weeks, the Angels have a 28.5% K-rate against right-handed pitching. They also have an ISO north of .200 against RHP over that span, so a lot to consider. He has solid ownership coming his way and has some of the best strikeout odds of the day.
J.P. France, Houston Astros
France is coming off back-to-back quality starts and has spanned 7 innings in each and has 21+ DKP in each. He’s won four of five starts and has 15+ DKP in those games and the Cleveland Guardians offense has not been very good this year. Cleveland is 21st in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching this year. France struggles with right-handed bats and Cleveland has a boatload of lefties in their lineup. They have been better, however.
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox
It’s scary to see a chalky Nick Pivetta and here we are, so how much exposure should we have? I mean, overall he has a good match-up, but Seattle’s offense has definitely been better lately. Pivetta hasn’t allowed an ER over his last 12 IP and has 15+ DKP in each of his last six outings in which he’s thrown at least three innings. Over his last 29.1 innings, he has a 1.53 ERA with 44 Ks over that span. That’s worth noting because Seattle has a 27.3% K-rate against righties in the month of July.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
San Diego Padres - 6.26
Atlanta Braves - 5.53
Colorado Rockies - 5.48
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
This is a fantastic spot for the Astros as Noah Syndergaard is making his debut for the Guardians here. He’s been crushed by lefties this year allowing a .271 ISO, .388 wOBA, 2.27 HR/9, and a 37.5% FB rate. Alvarez has dominated against right-handed hurlers this year, notching a .312 ISO, .423 wOBA, and 47.2% hard-hit rate. Houston has a very solid 5.2 implied run total today. They’re one of, if not my favorite stack of the day and Alvarez is at the forefront of it.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
It’s been a massive month of July for Machado notching 11 HR, 20 R, and 29 RBI while hitting .308 with a .385 ISO. He gets to end the month with a bang as the Padres head to Coors Field and get a taste of the elevation. He’s been great against left-handed pitching this entire season notching a .220 ISO and a .414 wOBA. Machado faces Austin Gomber who has allowed a .204 ISO and .350 wOBA to righty bats. We’ll have to see how the weather plays out here.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
This has arguably been the best stretch of the year for Bregman as he’s slashing .333/.394/.683 since the All-Star break along with a .350 ISO and .450 wOBA. He’s hit five homers over his last 10 games and six since the break. This match-up against Noah Syndergaard is a doozy and one we should look to take advantage of.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Righties have been the ones giving Griffin Canning fits this year and Ozuna comes into this game scorching hot homering four times over his last three games. Ozuna has a .222 ISO and a .338 wOBA against righties this year. Canning’s allowed a .222 ISO and a .356 wOBA to righties this year and over the last 30 days, he’s allowed a .294 ISO and a .483 wOBA. Ozuna’s one of the cheaper Braves options we have today considering their 6.1 implied runs.
Carlos Santana & Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers
I like both Brewers’ bats today quite a bit. They should bat right next to one another in the Brewers lineup against right-handed pitching and with Jake Irvin on the mound, they’re in great spots. They’re very cheap and both are on a roll. Santana has four homers in his last five games and has eight extra-base hits over his last seven contests. Frelick is hitting .304 with a .916 OPS through the first eight games of his career. Irvin has struggled against lefties this year allowing a .185 ISO and a .351 wOBA. They make for a nice two-man stack and are key pieces to an entire Brewers stack.
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Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Tyler Glasnow  $10,600 |  Matt Olson $4,100 |  Manny Machado $4,000 | Ronald Acuña $4,700 | ||
 Corbin Burnes $10,400 | Austin Riley $3,800 | Fernando Tatis $4,500 | ||||
 Yordan Alvarez $4,000 | ||||||
| Medium |  Charlie Morton $9,400 |  Triston Casas $3,400 | Jose Altuve $3,500 | Alex Bregman $3,200 | Xander Bogaerts $3,400 |  Kyle Tucker $3,600 |
| J.P. France $8,700 |  Carlos Santana $3,300 |  Brandon Lowe $3,100 | Isaac Paredes $3,200 |  Christian Yelich $3,500 | ||
| Ha-Seong Kim $3,600 | Marcell Ozuna $3,300 | |||||
| Low | Nick Pivetta $8,000 |  Luke Raley $3,100 | Brendan Rodgers $2,500 | Andruw Monasterio $2,700 | Orlando Arcia $2,800 | Sal Frelick $3,000 |
| Jeremy Peña $2,600 | Jake Meyers $2,400 | |||||
 Marco Luciano $2,400 |
Stacks
| Astros | Jose Altuve | Jake Meyers | Alex Bregman | Jeremy Peña | Kyle Tucker | Yordan Alvarez |
 DraftKings | 5600 | 2800 | 5200 | 4300 | 5700 | 5900 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 2400 | 3200 | 2600 | 3600 | 4000 |
| Padres | Xander Bogaerts | Manny Machado | Jake Cronenworth | Gary Sánchez | Fernando Tatis | Ha-Seong Kim |
| DraftKings | 4900 | 5600 | 4200 | 3700 | 6400 | 4500 |
| Fanduel | 3400 | 4000 | 3200 | 3300 | 4500 | 3600 |
| Rays | Jose Siri | Luke Raley | Yandy Díaz | Brandon Lowe | Isaac Paredes |
| DraftKings | 3500 | 4200 | 4800 | 4300 | 3800 |
| Fanduel | 3200 | 3100 | 3300 | 3100 | 3200 |
| Brewers | Christian Yelich | Carlos Santana | Andruw Monasterio | Sal Frelick |
| DraftKings | 5300 | 3600 | 2800 | 3800 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 3300 | 2700 | 3000 |
| Braves | Orlando Arcia | Austin Riley | Marcell Ozuna | Matt Olson | Ronald Acuña |
| DraftKings | 4100 | 6000 | 4400 | 6300 | 6600 |
| Fanduel | 2800 | 3800 | 3300 | 4100 | 4700 |
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.