MLB DFS Playbook July 24: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 24, 2023
We have an eight-game MLB DFS main slate on Monday, July 24th, on DraftKings and FanDuel and it's a very interesting slate. There are no Cy Young award contenders pitching tonight but we do have solid names such as Luis Castillo, Yu Darvish, Kenta Maeda, and Logan Allen. We do have a lot of back-end starters taking the hill, which puts offenses such as the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, and Milwaukee Brewers in interesting spots. Be sure to check out all of our tools including the MLB Lineups page, MLB DFS Projections – powered by FanJections –, MLB DFS Ownership, and all of the rest of our tools HERE! Let's dive into today's playbook, core plays, and top stacks of the day!
MLB DFS Weather Center
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
This game has some storms around the area, but nothing that looks overly concerning.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: 6.5 Ks (-155)
Yu Darvish, Dan Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 6.5 Ks (-155)
Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: 5.5 Ks (-170)
Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: 5.5 Ks (-145)
Best Odds for a Win
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres -258
Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians -192
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals -151
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
Look, if Castillo can avoid the home run ball he should have no issue in this spot. He’s allowed 2+ HR in four of his last five games and 13 HR over his last 10 starts after allowing just 6 HR over his first 10 starts. He just struck out 11 Twins in his last outing but still allowed 2 HR. He’s been very good overall this year and has as high of a ceiling as anyone else on this slate because of his strikeout upside. He’s topped 20 DKP in 10 of his 20 starts this year.
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
We have not seen Yu Darvish pitch well for three consecutive starts yet this season, but he’s coming off back-to-back solid outings and now faces Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching since the start of July. Darvish shut down both the Phillies and the Blue Jays with 27+ DKP in each outing. Darvish has struck out 7+ in back-to-back outings and now has 105 Ks in 97 innings. He’s my top option, even over Castillo who’s priced higher.
Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians
As long as Allen can throw strikes and isn’t walking the farm, this should be a walk in the park. He faces a Royals offense that rank 22nd in OPS and wOBA and has a 24.4% K-rate, the eighth-highest mark in the league, against left-handed pitching. Allen looked great in his first start since being recalled striking out eight Pirates across five innings. My one worry here is the 77 pitches he through after allowing just one hit and one walk over five innings. I love his upside, but I’m a little hesitant to go all in here.
Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
It’s an interesting spot here because Maeda has flashed a really high ceiling lately. He’s also flashed a low floor to boot, but when you can put up three starts of 26+ DKP in his last five starts. The strikeouts have been at the forefront of that success notching 8+ in each of those three starts and he has 6+ in four of five. Seattle has the second-highest K-rate in the league against right-handed pitching. Maeda profiles best in tournaments because of the discrepancy between his ceiling and floor.
Brandon Bielak, Houston Astros
With Patrick Corbin getting all the rub at the value tier, let’s pivot to Bielak who’s in an interesting spot. He faces Texas and Texas lost Corey Seager to the IL and Adolis Garcia could miss a second straight game after being hit by a pitch on Saturday. Texas could be without two of its best offensive options and Bielak has pitched well lately. Bielak has topped 20+ DKP in two of his last three starts and 13+ in three straight. Bielak is a big-time ground baller as it’s nearly at 50% for the year. He’s half the ownership that Corbin is and his ERA is 1.5 runs lower than Corbin’s. I’m OK getting to Corbin, but I’ll pivot to Bielak in tournaments.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
Washington Nationals - 5.2
Arizona Diamondbacks - 5.18
Los Angeles Dodgers - 5.18
Milwaukee Brewers - 4.91
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
There are not many people on the planet as hot as Freddie Freeman right now. He has three straight multi-hit games and five of his last six and has a .447/.563/.947 slash over his last 10 games. He has a .209 ISO and a .413 wOBA against right-handed pitching and faces Jose Berrios who has struggled with lefties only. Lefties have a .168 ISO and a .333 wOBA against Berrios.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Here he comes! Carroll has now homered in two straight games and in three of four overall. He now has 21 homers and 29 stolen bases on the year and continues to be a fantasy star. He draws a fantastic match-up against Adam Wainwright who’s allowed a .327 ISO and a .493 wOBA against left-handed hitters. Carroll has a .316 ISO and a .418 wOBA and both lead the team.
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers
Adames has thrived at home against right-handed pitching since arriving in Milwaukee. He has a .203 ISO against righties this year and he had a .236 ISO last year too. His .792 OPS and .252 ISO against righties at home and those are his best numbers in every split. Graham Ashcraft has struggled against righties allowing a .181 ISO and a .377 wOBA this year and a .201 ISO and a .390 wOBA.
CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals
The Nationals' leadoff hitter has been fantastic lately and is the reigning National League player of the week. He’s hitting .353 in July through the first 17 games of the month notching 3 HR, 17 R, and 10 SB. The speed has been the difference-maker in the DFS space lately and faces a right-handed heavy approach from Colorado’s pitching staff today. Thanks to his recent stretch, Abrams now has a .180 ISO and .330 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the year. Over his last 30 days, that wOBA has sat at .368.
Will Benson, Cincinnati Reds
Where Brewers’ starting pitcher Colin Rea has really struggled is against left-handed batters. Lefties have a .242 ISO, .361 wOBA, 2.13 HR/9, 44.7% FB, and 34.4% hard-hit. On the year, Benson is hitting .310 with all 6 HR against righties along with a .968 OPS, .246 ISO, and .413 wOBA. He’s hitting .327 with a 1.063 OPS and .290 since June 1st too. He’s been amazing and is a cheap option to get an option in a potent Cincy lineup.
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Player Pool
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