MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Tuesday Playbook
Published: Oct 01, 2024
It’s postseason time! September ended in incredible fashion yesterday with one of the season's best games, and the Mets and Braves each earning spots in October with the Diamondback’s season ending.
October baseball gets underway fast and furious, with all four Wild Card Series kicking off today. Let’s kick the postseason off strong with some winning MLB DFS lineups!
We have a 4-game slate today, with game 1 of each wild card series happening today. It will get started with the Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros at 2:32 PM EST on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It will be an exciting day of baseball, and we have plenty to talk about in these four games for DFS, so let’s jump right into the first postseason playbook and all my favorite MLB DFS picks for the day!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, October 1
Day 1 of the postseason means we have a lot of aces on the mound. Runs could be hard to come by today, and we have plenty of stud pitchers. Every pitcher outside Luis Severino and Ian Anderson has arguments for consideration today. Still, I think my 3 favorites are the best ones to target, with the others having too much volatility and blow-up potential.
On the offensive side, the Mets and Braves are coming off their double-headers yesterday, lacking aces and with weakened bullpens. They will be the best teams to attack, making the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers the top two offenses to stack today. However, I do think there are some other great plays today alongside them.
MLB Weather Today, 10/1
Rain this afternoon could push back the start time, but it shouldn’t affect the game beyond that.
MLB DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator Today
This Playbook is your ultimate resource for crafting amazing MLB DFS picks. Dive into our expert advice and recommendations, and don’t forget to check out today’s MLB DFS projections, MLB DFS ownership projections and our special MLB lineups page!
You can easily mix all this info with the MLB DFS Lineup Generator, helping you lock in your Core Plays and create winning lineups quickly! Here’s a sample lineup for today’s games:
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Framber Valdez vs. Detroit Tigers
- Freddy Peralta vs. New York Mets
- Tarik Skubal vs. Houston Astros
- Cole Ragans vs. Baltimore Orioles
Best Odds For A Win
- Tarik Skubal vs. Houston Astros
- Michael King vs. Atlanta Braves
- Corbin Burnes vs. Kansas City Royals
- Luis Severino vs. Milwaukee Brewers
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
The Houston Astros are no easy task. They have a very strong offense and are pretty good against lefties, but Tarik Skubal is your AL Cy Young and Triple Crown winner. The Tigers have been on a magical run, and it could continue today with Skubal shutting down the Astros. He has been dominant all season, and I think he shines in his postseason debut in a tough matchup.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
Cole Ragans might not quite be at Tarik Skubal's levels of dominance, but what an incredible first full season Ragans had. 186.1 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 223 strikeouts. He gets a better matchup than Ragans, though, being in a friendly ballpark as well.
The Orioles have been sputtering a bit to end the season. Against lefties in September, they had a 23.4% strikeout rate and were middle of the pack in offensive production. This will also be his first post-season start, and I think he adds to the resurgence of the AL Central with Skubal and pitches excellent today.
Michael King, San Diego Padres
This was also Michael King’s first full season as a starter after getting moved from the bullpen, where he had been dominant for a few years, and it was a successful transition. He threw 173.2 innings with a 2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 201 strikeouts.
The Atlanta Braves are much better than they had been, with Matt Olson figuring things out, Ozzie Albies returning, and overall production across the lineup improving. They are coming off a tough double-header fight yesterday, though, and I think they could sputter out of the gate here. King has great strikeout upside and, with the Braves not having great pitchers to turn to right now, likely has a solid chance at getting a win.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Luis Severino
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cole Ragans
- San Diego Padres vs. Ian Anderson
- Houston Astros vs. Tarik Skubal
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters
Jake Bauers, 1B Milwaukee Brewers
With pitching not being cheap and there being some other expensive plays I like today, you will need some value plays as well, and Jake Bauers is one of the best you can get at this price. While Severino has had a solid season, he is still one of the weaker pitchers today, and Jake Bauers should be getting the start with the righty on the mound.
If you can afford guys like Matt Olson or Pete Alonso, definitely still go there, but if you need to save some money, getting Bauers' power upside in this matchup is a good way to do so for your lineup.
Manny Machado, 3B San Diego Padres
The Padres are definitely one of the best stacks today, facing the Braves with their tough pitching situation. Machado has been arguably their best hitter through the end of the season. Since the all-star break, he has slashed .286/.333/.543 with 16 homers and 6 steals.
Machado is no stranger to the postseason and should be a big part of this team's deep postseason run. Third base also feels pretty weak with guys in tough matchups, so I think Machado has a big edge over the rest of the position.
Willy Adames, SS Milwaukee Brewers
We’ve got the magic spot for Willy Adames on day one of the postseason, at home and against a right-hander. If I were betting on anyone to hit a homer today, it would be Willy Adames in this spot.
Severino has done pretty well limiting homers to right-handers this season. Still, Adames is not your average right-hander and pretty much eliminates any good matchup split that pitchers have against righties.
San Diego Padres OF
The Padres outfield provides some great options, namely Fernando Tatis and Jackson Merrill. It is hard not to be drawn to both of those two in this matchup, and they are both very reasonable prices.
If you want to throw Profar into the mix and do a 3-man Padres outfield, you can, but getting Tatis and Merrill both in there is an absolute must for me today.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Tarik Skubal  $9,600 |  William Contreras $4,700 |  Matt Olson $5,000 |  Manny Machado $5,400 |  Bobby Witt $6,200 | Fernando Tatis $5,500 | |
 Francisco Lindor $5,600 | Marcell Ozuna $5,200 | ||||||
| Medium | Cole Ragans $8,800 | Salvador Perez $4,400 | Pete Alonso $4,600 | Ozzie Albies $4,600 | Mark Vientos $4,400 |  Willy Adames $4,500 | Brandon Nimmo $4,400 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino $4,100 | Brice Turang $4,000 | Jackson Merrill $4,300 | |||||
| Jackson Chourio $4,300 | |||||||
| Jurickson Profar $4,100 | |||||||
| Low | Michael King $8,100 |  Gary Sánchez $3,400 | Spencer Torkelson $3,700 | Michael Massey $3,600 | Matt Vierling $3,900 | Xander Bogaerts $3,900 | MJ Melendez $3,000 |
| Francisco Alvarez $3,200 | Jake Bauers $3,100 | Andy Ibáñez $2,800 | Orlando Arcia $2,800 |  Jorge Soler $3,900 | |||
 Tommy Pham $3,600 | |||||||
| Wenceel Pérez $3,500 |
Stacks
| Brewers | William Contreras | Brice Turang | Jake Bauers | Willy Adames | Jackson Chourio |
| DraftKings | 4700 | 4000 | 3100 | 4500 | 4300 |
 Fanduel | 3500 | 3000 | 2500 | 3600 | 3200 |
| Padres | Xander Bogaerts | Manny Machado | Jackson Merrill | Jurickson Profar | Fernando Tatis |
| DraftKings | 3900 | 5400 | 4300 | 4100 | 5500 |
| Fanduel | 2900 | 3600 | 3300 | 3400 | 4300 |
| Royals | Vinnie Pasquantino | Bobby Witt | MJ Melendez | Tommy Pham | Michael Massey |
| DraftKings | 4100 | 6200 | 3000 | 3600 | 3600 |
| Fanduel | 2000 | 4500 | 2500 | 2800 | 2800 |
| Tigers | Spencer Torkelson | Andy Ibáñez | Matt Vierling | Wenceel Pérez | Riley Greene |
| DraftKings | 3700 | 2800 | 3900 | 3500 | 4800 |
| Fanduel | 2800 | 2500 | 2900 | 2600 | 3200 |
| Brewers | William Contreras | Brice Turang | Jake Bauers | Willy Adames | Jackson Chourio |
| DraftKings | 4700 | 4000 | 3100 | 4500 | 4300 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 3000 | 2500 | 3600 | 3200 |
| Padres | Xander Bogaerts | Manny Machado | Jackson Merrill | Jurickson Profar | Fernando Tatis |
| DraftKings | 3900 | 5400 | 4300 | 4100 | 5500 |
| Fanduel | 2900 | 3600 | 3300 | 3400 | 4300 |
| Royals | Vinnie Pasquantino | Bobby Witt | MJ Melendez | Tommy Pham | Michael Massey |
| DraftKings | 4100 | 6200 | 3000 | 3600 | 3600 |
| Fanduel | 2000 | 4500 | 2500 | 2800 | 2800 |
| Tigers | Spencer Torkelson | Andy Ibáñez | Matt Vierling | Wenceel Pérez | Riley Greene |
| DraftKings | 3700 | 2800 | 3900 | 3500 | 4800 |
| Fanduel | 2800 | 2500 | 2900 | 2600 | 3200 |
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.