MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Saturday Playbook
Published: Sep 21, 2024
Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We have a 7-game main slate on DraftKings kicking off at 7:05 PM EST. This slate was originally 8 games but the Giants vs Royals has been removed.
This slate has some decent pitching options and we do not have to deal with Coors Field. The Dodgers have the highest implied total but the Padres might be the best stack on the board. My only question is how many home runs and steals is Shohei Ohtani going to have today?
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MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook
MLB Weather: Today, 9/21
Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals
Scattered showers are in the forecast for this game. It is possible we see some kind of late start or in game delay, but the game is expected to play.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate has some interesting options for pitching. Carlos Rodon should have the highest upside but Ronel Blanco is also in a soft matchup. I find myself using one of these expensive arms and pairing them with someone like Martin Perez or the very cheap Walker Buehler.
With Chris Flexen on the mound for the White Sox, the Padres are my favorite stack. Only the Dodgers have a higher implied run total, and you can definitely stack the Dodgers, but the Padres are much more affordable.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
- Carlos Rodon (7.5 Ks +100) vs Oakland Athletics
- Ronel Blanco (6.5 Ks +110) vs Los Angeles Angels
- Walker Buehler (5.5 Ks -130) vs Colorado Rockies
- Max Scherzer (5.5 Ks -120) vs Seattle Mariners
Best Odds for a Win
- Carlos Rodon vs Oakland Athletics
- Walker Buehler vs Colorado Rockies
- Martin Perez vs Chicago White Sox
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
I don’t love his price, but Blanco is in a great spot against a bad Angels team. He just threw six innings of shutout baseball against them a week ago and will look to repeat here. The Angels rank in the league's bottom half offensively and have a 26.6% strikeout rate against righties over the last 30 days. Blanco is not a big strikeout pitcher but has found at least five in four of his last five starts while allowing zero runs in three.
Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
Carlos Rodon is in an interesting spot on the road against the Athletics. His away splits have not been great, pitching to a 5.01 ERA, but he’s coming off some great outings, including an 11-strikeout game against the Rangers and 9 against the Royals. Oakland has some guys that can smash lefties, namely Brent Rooker, but Rodon’s strikeout prop is at 7.5 and he’s in a great pitcher’s park. He’s given up five home runs over his last four starts but this stadium should help him limit the damage.
Martin Perez, San Diego Padres
Martin Perez gets the White Sox, so he is an automatic inclusion. As has been the case all season, the White Sox are the worst team in baseball and have a dreadful offense. They have shown flashes lately but have a team ISO of .089 and OPS of .607 over the last 30 days against lefties. Perez is coming off two solid starts and should be in line for another against this team.
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Walker Buehler has one of the best matchups on the board and comes in as one of the cheapest pitchers. He has had some real struggles this year, pitching to a 5.54 ERA while allowing a terrible 2.08 HR/9, but getting the Rockies away from Coors has been great for pitchers. Over the last 30 days away from Coors, Colorado has a team OPS of .640 and a towering 33.9% strikeout rate. Buehler is only striking out 18% of batters this season, but he could be looking at a ceiling strikeout game in this matchup. He’s far too cheap on DraftKings and using him as an SP2 will allow you to pay up for some big bats.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Los Angeles Dodgers (5.8)
- San Diego Padres (5.1)
- Houston Astros (4.7)
- Texas Rangers (4.6)
- Milwaukee Brewers (4.4)
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released
Shohei Ohtani, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
What this guy is doing is insane. After hitting five home runs and stealing four bases over his last four games, he now has 52 home runs and 52 steals on the season. His price tag makes you think he’s playing in Coors Field, but he’s not, he’s just that good. Sure if he has an off night, his salary can sink your lineup, but no other player in the league has the potential ceiling that Ohtani has. Cal Quantrill has been a decent pitcher, but no one is safe from Ohtani. He gives up a ton of walks so even if Ohtani doesn’t homer, he will have plenty of chances for RBIs and stolen bases.
Fernando Tatis, Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
The White Sox are starting Chris Flexen, which means I have a ton of interest in the Padres. Flexen has a 5.09 ERA and is bad against both splits, allowing a .448 SLG to righties and .509 SLG to lefties. Tatis is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, batting .302 with a 1.016 OPS and five home runs over his last 10 games, while Profar is batting .342 with a .919 OPS and one home run. Flexen surprised me in his last outing against the A’s but I do not see him repeating six innings of shutout baseball against the Padres.
Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Willy Adames has cooled off since the tear he went on at the end of August, but this is the type of situation in which we look to play him. At home against a righty, Adames is batting .273 with a .892 OPS, 15 home runs, and a towering .268 ISO. Merrill Kelly is on the hill for Arizona and he has given up seven home runs over his last five starts. The SS position is rather bleak so if you want to spend down on someone like Bogaerts you can, but Adames is in a good spot.
Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees
Gleyber Torres is in a great spot here against JP Sears. He hits from the leadoff spot with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge behind him. He hasn’t had the most impressive year but his power has come almost entirely against lefties, with a .787 OPS and .187 ISO. Sears has been good but worse against righties, allowing a .440 SLG and 1.30 HR/9 while only striking out 16.7% of batters.
Player Pool
Stacks
| Padres | Xander Bogaerts | Manny Machado | Jurickson Profar | Fernando Tatis |
 DraftKings | 3800 | 4800 | 4100 | 5100 |
 Fanduel | 2900 | 3600 | 3400 | 3700 |
| Dodgers | Tommy Edman | Shohei Ohtani | Max Muncy |
| DraftKings | 4200 | 7300 | 4700 |
| Fanduel | 3300 | 5100 | 3600 |
| Astros | Alex Bregman | Jeremy Peña | Yainer Diaz |
| DraftKings | 4800 | 4300 | 4700 |
| Fanduel | 3200 | 3000 | 3100 |
| Brewers | Brice Turang | Willy Adames | Jackson Chourio |
| DraftKings | 4400 | 4600 | 4500 |
| Fanduel | 3000 | 3600 | 3500 |
Player News
Trea Turner went 4-for-4 with an RBI double Tuesday in the Phillies 7-6 win over the Nationals.
Turner was hoping to make it 5-for-5 in the ninth, but the game ended on a wild pitch while he was at the plate. Turner’s offensive effort barely made up for a couple of late misplays on defense. José Alvarado bailed him out after the first, and the rest of the offense picked him up in the ninth after his error preceded three unearned runs. Turner has seven hits the last two days, raising his average from .245 to .290.
Zack Wheeler pitched 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball Tuesday in a no-decision against the Nationals.
Wheeler struck out seven and walked one against his old nemesis, and he was in line to move to 15-15 against the Nationals in his career before a blown save in the ninth (he doesn’t have more than eight losses against any other team). Wheeler has allowed exactly two runs in each of his last three starts and is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA overall. It’s unclear right now whether he’ll make his next start Sunday against the Diamondbacks or get pushed back to Tuesday versus the Rays.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. will undergo further testing on his right oblique during Thursday’s off-day.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters there’s some level of concern it could be an injured list situation, but added that Chisholm told him that he feels fine. The 27-year-old fantasy stalwart was lifted from Tuesday’s game against the Orioles with right flank discomfort. He’s unlikely to play in Wednesday afternoon’s matinee in Baltimore. There should be some clarity on his status heading into Friday’s series opener against the Rays once he’s undergone an MRI to rule out any structural damage.
Going for his first career save in the ninth inning Tuesday, Orion Kerkering gave up four runs — one earned — against the Nationals.
Truly unfortunate for Kerkering, though he did wind up with the win after the Phillies came back with two in the bottom of the ninth. It took two misplays to cause Kerkering’s blown save. After a one-out single by CJ Abrams, James Wood ripped a ball to center. Johan Rojas was in fine position to catch it, but he misjudged the distance, and it went over his head for a double. After that, Kerkering got what should have been a routine groundout, but Trea Turner botched the throw for an error. Kerkering went on to strike out Keibert Ruiz for what could have been the fourth out of the inning, but he then gave up a three-run homer to Nathaniel Lowe. With José Alvarado working the eighth tonight, Kerkering was pitching in the ninth for the first time since last July 26. Even though what happened wasn’t his fault, he might not get another chance anytime soon.
MacKenzie Gore yielded three runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday.
Gore avoided falling to 2-4 after a late comeback, though the Nationals went on to lose anyway. He obviously deserves a better record for being 5-for-7 in quality starts, with both of his misses falling only a little short (3 ER in 5 IP and 4 ER in 6 IP). With six strikeouts and no walks tonight, his K/BB stands an at exceptional 59/9 through 41 innings. If he could keep that up, it’d be the third-highest K:BB in ExpoNats history behind a pair of Max Scherzer seasons.
Kyle Finnegan took a blown save and a loss after giving up two runs in the ninth Tuesday against the Phillies.
Finnegan would have converted the save with no runs in had Keibert Ruiz not whiffed on Dylan Crews’ throw home on what turned out to be a game-tying sac fly. Finnegan then lost the game with a wild pitch. It’s his first defeat and second blown save in 11 chances.