Welcome to Wednesday’s MLB DFS Picks and Playbook! We had a great day in yesterday's DFS writeup, with some of my favorite plays panning out as Jared Jones and Logan Gilbert both pitched great, and the Padres stack doing some damage. 

Not to mention some great games to watch, with the Angels vs. Rays going 13 innings, the Guardians vs. Red Sox game going 11 innings, plus an absolute slugfest in the 10-inning Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game with 23 runs scored. There should be plenty more excitement in store for us today, so let’s get ready for it by building some winning MLB DFS lineups! 

 

 

 

We have an early slate today, so make sure to get those lineups set in time; we have an 11-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel that will be getting underway at 1:05 PM ET. We have a nice mix on this slate of some top-tier pitchers, some pitchers with big question marks, and some pitchers to attack. It should be another great slate to build some winning lineups for, so let’s dive into today’s playbook and some of my favorite plays for the day! 

MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, April 17

MLB Weather Today, 4/17

MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

We have a few solid pitchers today, but it isn’t the deepest slate of pitchers, with a few top-end guys not being pitchers I want to go after today. I would avoid Brady Singer, as he is just way too expensive, even with him taking on the Chicago White Sox. 

I also want to avoid Kevin Gausman; I am convinced he is hurt and will not use him until I see a good start. I also love Tarik Skubal, but when I can get Freddy Peralta (can no longer get Freddy Peralta today) and Pablo Lopez cheaper and some other cheap-end options I like today, I will probably not pay the 10K it costs to get him.

On the offensive side, some of the best lineups to target today include the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, and New York Yankees (yes, I distrust Gausman that much right now), and the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options For Strikeouts

Best Odds For A Win

 

 

 

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez's 4.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP aren’t what you expect, and his strikeouts haven’t been crazy high either, but he did still have 7 through 4 innings in his last start. Don’t overthink this and overvalue these first three starts when they haven’t been terrible. 

Pablo Lopez is an ace and him going for $8,800 on DraftKings and as the 7th pitcher off the board is criminal. We are talking about a pitcher with 234 strikeouts last season. I know it is against the Orioles, but this discount is too big to ignore. 

Update: Freddy Peralta no longer pitching today

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

Freddy Peralta has been incredible to start the season. Through his first 17.2 innings, he has a 2.55 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP, but more importantly, he leads the league K-BB% at 36.4%, which is absurd. So far, he has 26 strikeouts and only 2 walks. 

The San Diego Padres aren’t a terrible offense, but he just decimated the Orioles with 11 strikeouts through 6 innings, so I really am not worried about who he is facing. When he is healthy, Peralta has the ability to be the best strikeout pitcher in the game.

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Bryce Miller has been strong to start the season for the Mariners. The strikeouts dipped a bit in his last outing against the Cubs, but they should easily come back up into the 6+ range today, taking on the Cincinnati Reds. 

Against the Cubs, he threw his fastball 71% of the time compared to only 54% in his first two outings. I think if he goes back to throwing the Slider and Splitter more like he did in the first two starts, the strikeouts should come back, and I think he may have just not had a feel for his Splitter in the last outing. 

Michael King, San Diego Padres

So far, Michael King’s transition to a full-time starter has been fine but not fantastic. The strikeout rate has dipped to under 22% so far, and while it will be lower than when he was a reliever, I still think he can be closer to a 25% strikeout guy. 

The real problem, though, has been the walks, but most of that is driven by the 7 walks in 4 innings against the Giants. Since then, he has only walked 3 through 12 innings. His changeup has looked great, but his slider/sweeper hasn’t; if he can get the slider back in shape, the strikeouts should jump quickly. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals 

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Note: Will Be Updated As Official Starting Lineups Are Released

Pete Alonso, 1B New York Mets

If the Mets are doing anything right this year, it is hitting lefty pitching. They are second in the league with an .827 OPS against lefties. Pete Alonso hits well against both sides (a little less average against lefties, but it comes with more power); with the team hitting well around him, as they should do so against Bailey Falter, his value goes up even more.

Ketel Marte, 2B Arizona Diamondbacks

I spent way too long trying to find a cheaper 2B option when Ketel Marte was sitting there at the top staring me in the face. Ketel Marte is such an easy play against a lefty (especially one I don’t trust yet like Jordan Wicks). Ketel Marte crushes lefties with a career .303/.358/.515 slash-line against them. The Diamondbacks have the third-best OPS against lefties behind the Mets, and 10 more runs scored against lefties than any other team. 

Francisco Lindor, SS New York Mets

I think most people are going to see Lindor’s .145 average or the .477 OPS and shy away (that’s a bottom 10 OPS among qualified hitters right now), but against lefties he still has looked like normal Lindor with an 0.895 OPS. I’m not worried about Lindor long-term, as I am sure he will bounce back overall, but while you may want to avoid him against righties with a .080 average and no extra-base hits, I am happy to take him in a matchup like today.

Mitch Haniger, OF Seattle Mariners

Unlike the Mets and the Diamondbacks, I am not about to sell you on how good the Mariners are against left-handed pitching; they have been not good. However, Mitch Haniger has been good. Haniger leads the Mariners in almost every offensive category and has a career .839 OPS against lefties. 

Andrew Abbott isn’t getting strikeouts right now (only 3 against the White Sox through 7 innings last outing), so hopefully, this Mariners offense can wake up a bit and join Mitch Haniger, but even if they don’t, Haniger should still provide some good production today. 

 

 

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