Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We get a solid 6-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel kicking off at 4:05 PM EST.

 

 

This slate has a ton of interesting options, but the main story this weekend is the highly anticipated debut of top Pirates prospect, Paul Skenes. Whether you are a Pirates fan or not, this should be one of the most-watched games thus far this season.

With that being said, let’s dive into the slate and see what we can find for top spends and value plays. 

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MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook 

MLB Weather: Today, 5/11

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates

We have scattered showers in the forecast and there’s a good chance this game will have a late start.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles

There is rain expected but it should land after the game.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

There is light rain in the area but the game should play.


MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

First and foremost, this slate features the debut of the highly-touted Pirates pitcher, Paul Skenes. He’s already the most expensive pitcher on the slate and because of the talent and the hype, people are going to play him. The top prospect for the Mets, Christian Scott, will also be taking the mound, but in a much more difficult matchup against the Atlanta Braves.

When it comes to stacking, I have a lot of interest in both the Yankees and Diamondbacks. The Yankees bats have been heating up and Arizona is the best team against left-handed pitchers this year. Baltimore is also an appealing stack as Ryne Nelson is not a pitcher I believe in.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

Best Odds for a Win

 

 

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

IT’S TIME! 

After dominating the minors, Paul Skenes has finally been called up to the big leagues. This is an exciting day in the world of baseball and Skenes single-handedly makes this slate interesting. Skenes made a few starts across A and AA, and seven in AAA, where he struck out an impressive 45 batters through 27 innings of work. 

This is the most hyped pitcher since Stephen Strasburg way back in 2010. He has an absolute cannon of an arm and has thrown more pitches at 100+ mph than any pitcher in the MLB this season. It’s unclear how deep into the game he will go, having only eclipsed four innings in one of his seven starts, but his strikeout upside is huge. Strasburg struck out 14 batters in his debut, which might be a little optimistic to expect here, but the Cubs hold a 24..1%  strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, so it is possible.

Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees

My interest in Nestor Cortes is more about the Tampa Bay Rays being bad than Cortes being good. He’s been a decent pitcher with a 3.72 ERA, but his home/road splits have been so volatile it is risky to use him on the road, where he holds a 6.75 ERA. 

Cortes has seen the Rays once this year already, albeit at home, but he tossed seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. Tampa sits in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories against left-handed pitching while holding the sixth-highest strikeout rate at 25.5%. 

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

After getting knocked around by the Padres in his first start, Taijuan Walker had a better showing in his second start, allowing three runs while striking out seven batters. His numbers this far, especially his 6.40 ERA, are not exactly what we want, but he has picked up the win in both starts this year.

He’s given up three home runs through 12 innings which is a little alarming, but the Marlins are in the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. They do have some hot bats, namely Bryan De La Cruz, but if Walker can limit the damage, he should be able to pay off his price tag. Jesus Luzardo being on the other side of this matchup would typically give cause for concern, but he’s not been great this year and is making his first start after being on the IL.

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

Max Fried gave up two home runs and four runs in his last start against the Dodgers, but before that, he had only given up four runs in 26 innings. He’s had at least six strikeouts in his last three starts and playing for the Braves, he comes with built-in win equity.

The Mets sit in the middle of the league in both wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching while batting .241 as a team. He’s inducing groundballs at a 67.6% rate and if he can navigate around Pete Alonso, he should be able to have a solid start. If you want to play with fire, Christian Scott is making his second start for the Mets, but taking on the Braves lineup is a tall task.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals  

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released

Christian Walker, 3B / Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Orioles are starting a left-hander in John Means which puts Christian Walker and Ketel Marte in a prime position to produce. Means is a fine pitcher and had a strong season debut against the Reds, but the Diamondbacks lead the league in wOBA at .377 and batting average at .313.

Marte has absolutely crushed lefties this year, holding a .483 wOBA, 1.152 OPS, and a .365 ISO. Walker has a .363 wOBA, .812 OPS, and .111 ISO, but he has a .210 ISO over his career. This stack has been a staple all season vs Southpaws and this slate will be no different.

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

Earlier in the season I was very hesitant to pay up for Aaron Judge, but that is no longer the case. He was held hitless on Friday, but prior to that, he had hits in six straight games, including three home runs and seven RBI. Seven of his nine home runs have come off righties and he’s crushing the ball right now.

Zack Littell has been pretty good for the Rays, with a 3.00 ERA on the year, but he gives up a lot of hits. He’s allowed at least eight hits in three of his last four starts and will have to be very careful when dealing with Judge, who hit his last home run a towering 473 feet.

Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees

If I’m playing Aaron Judge, I am likely stacking him with Anthony Volpe. Volpe has been hitting from the leadoff spot with hits in four straight games and runs scored in five of his last six. He’s hit two home runs in his last four games and has seven steals on the year, giving him plenty of upside while hitting in the leadoff spot. Volpe has better splits against righties, with a .175 ISO and .356 wOBA, making him a perfect fit in a Yankees stack.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Ryan O’Hearn is quietly having a solid season in Baltimore, hitting .291 with a .915 OPS and five home runs. He doesn’t play against left-handed pitchers, but Arizona is starting righty Ryne Nelson. He will typically hit in the top half of the lineup and his .274 ISO shows he has a ton of power.

Ryne Nelson, on the other hand, is allowing a .328 wOBA and .487 SLG to lefties on the year. He has only given up three home runs across his 20 innings this season, but all three came to lefties. He was bad against both splits last year, but was slightly worse against lefties, allowing a .375 wOBA and .531 SLG. O’Hearn will be one of the cheapest ways to gain exposure to this Baltimore team in a great spot against Ryne Nelson.

 

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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