Saturday’s baseball slate is another loaded one with 15 games on the MLB schedule and every team in action. There are plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions, with games going on all day. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets today.

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/14

Our MLB Best Bets today start with an AL East rivalry matchup between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. It’s one of the most watchable series this weekend, so let’s get some action on Saturday’s game. We’ll also dive into the New York Mets hosting the Tampa Bay Rays this afternoon. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Saturday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions: Saturday, June 14th

Last weekend, we were treated to multiple entertaining games between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. All three matchups saw 15+ runs scored with the offenses taking center stage. The AL East rivals are back at it again this weekend, and more fireworks could be coming

Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is having an excellent season with a 2.87 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It hasn’t been a good idea to fade him, but this is one of those rare instances. Rodon just allowed 5 runs to the Red Sox in his latest start. The left-hander also now has a 5.82 ERA over his last four starts vs. Boston, including last year. 

Yes, Rodon has been mostly dominant this season. His past struggles in this matchup are hard to ignore, though, especially since the Boston lineup just got to him a week ago. The Red Sox are also hammering left-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.398 wOBA, 155 wRC+, 236 ISO). Plus, they’re elite vs. lefties overall this season with a .349 wOBA (2nd in MLB) and 120 wRC+ (3rd). 

On the other side, the Yankees should get to Boston starter Hunter Dobbins as well. The rookie right-hander has a 4.20 ERA this year, including a 5.40 ERA over his last six games. Dobbins faced the Yanks last weekend and allowed 3 runs across 5 innings. It was a decent outing, but he notably failed to record a strikeout as New York’s hitters made plenty of contact. 

That’s the worry for Dobbins in this spot. His low 17.9% K rate, combined with a 43.7% hard-hit rate, is concerning against a lineup as dangerous as the Yankees’. This offense is top-tier against right-handed pitching this season and crushing the split lately. Over the past week, the Yanks have a .384 wOBA, 153 wRC+, and .294 BA vs. righties. 

Let’s take the over for the full game and first five innings. Hopefully, the scoring gets going early with either (or both of) Rodon and Dobbins struggling in their respective matchups. Of course, it was a 2-1 final last night in the series opener, but the offenses should wake up today. 

As noted above, New York and Boston have already played in some high-scoring games this season. In last weekend’s series, the final combined run totals were 15, 17, and 18 runs. The Yanks and Sox averaged 13 combined total runs in six matchups at Fenway Park last year, with five of the six hitting the over. 

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Mets Predictions: Saturday, June 14th

Let’s now focus on Saturday afternoon’s interleague game between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets. We have an interesting starting pitching matchup of Drew Rasmussen vs. Tylor Megill. It may be time to sell high on one of those guys, though, as we make our MLB picks.

Rasmussen has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball this year. The Rays’ starter boasts a 2.22 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 13 starts. He’s also allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 5 starts combined. Despite the dominance, today presents an opportunity to fade Rasmussen. 

The Tampa right-hander has a few underlying metrics pointing to slight negative regression. Rasmussen’s low .233 BABIP and high 84.8% left-on-base rate both seem unsustainable, especially since they are career-best marks. In turn, his 3.24 FIP is a full run above that current 2.22 ERA. 

Plus, Rasmussen’s low 22.1% whiff rate (27th MLB percentile) and lofty 43.5% hard-hit rate (31st) could be an issue in the wrong matchups. Mets qualify as that. They have the league’s best offense against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .394 wOBA, 160 wRC+, .292 ISO, and .923 OPS. New York is simply crushing righties right now. 

Then there’s this interesting trend. Rasmussen has only pitched on the road three times in his 13 starts this year. One of those was against the lowly Marlins. Another was against the Rangers back in April, when that offense was struggling. The third was in Arizona, and it was his worst outing of the season (4 runs allowed). 

Meanwhile, Megill offers some upside for the Mets today. His 3.76 ERA and 1.30 WHIP aren’t all that impressive at first glance. However, there are some really good things to like about Megill’s advanced profile. 

Megill’s 29.8% strikeout rate (88th MLB percentile), .218 xBA (79th), 30.4% whiff rate (82nd), and 6.2% barrel rate (77th) are all career-best marks for the fifth-year starter. He’s also been better at home with a 2.16 ERA compared to a 4.76 ERA on the road. Megill had a few rough outings to begin May, but he has a 3.22 FIP over four starts since. 

The New York right-hander will take on a Rays offense with subpar numbers in the split lately. Against righties this month, they have a .220 batting average (27th in MLB) and .299 wOBA (23rd). Tampa also has one of the worst road offenses in the league with a .296 wOBA (25th), 89 wRC+ (24th), and 24.1% K rate (24th). 

Back the Mets at home today. They’re 27-8 at home this season, including 10-2 in the past 12 home contests. New York is also 15-4 over the past 19 games overall. After losing to Tampa Bay last night, the home squad will bounce back. The Mets have lost back-to-back home games just once this season, back on April 30 and May 1. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/14

 

 

 

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