Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Thursday’s baseball slate is smaller, with eight games on the MLB schedule. Even so, there are plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions with games starting up in the afternoon. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/12

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an AL matchup between Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers and the Baltimore Orioles. We’ll also dive into another intriguing American League showdown as the Kansas City Royals host Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

 

 

Tigers vs. Orioles Predictions: Thursday, June 12th

Today’s top MLB picks start with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Detroit Tigers on Thursday evening. As Tarik Skubal toes the rubber for Detroit, we should expect the Orioles’ scoring to be limited. Don’t overlook Baltimore starter Dean Kremer holding his own, too. Let’s break it down. 

Skubal is flat-out dominating right now. He boasts a 1.82 ERA and 1.28 FIP over his last eight starts with an insane 76:2 K:BB ratio in 54.2 innings during this stretch. The Tigers’ left-hander owns a ton of elite advanced metrics, including a 33.4% strikeout rate (94th percentile), 2.2% walk rate (100th), 31.7% hard-hit rate (92nd), and 34.3% whiff rate (93rd). 

Last year’s AL Cy Young winner is again the favorite to win this season’s honors. Though he’s elite at home (1.72 ERA), the lefty has also been plenty productive on the road with a 2.72 ERA and 2.96 FIP. Skubal is in fade-at-your-own-risk territory at this point.

Well, the Orioles have the league’s worst offense against left-handed pitching this season. They’re batting just .203 vs. lefties (29th in MLB) with a .255 wOBA (30th), 62 wRC+ (29th), .558 OPS (30th), and .076 ISO (30th) in the split. Now the O’s have to face arguably the best left-hander in the game. Yikes! 

As Skubal does his thing, Kremer can be effective as well. It’s a bounce-back opportunity for the Baltimore starter after he allowed five runs on the road to the Athletics last outing. Before that, though, Kremer posted a 2.72 ERA over his previous six starts. He’s been more trustworthy following a rough first month of the season. 

Kremer’s season-long 4.98 ERA is obviously concerning. However, he’s been notably better at home with a 2.25 ERA, .217 batting average against, and .272 wOBA allowed. Compare that to an ugly 6.33 ERA on the road with a .313 BA and .373 wOBA allowed. Those are some drastic home/road splits. 

Kremer doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters (16.8% K rate), but he allows soft contact and limits free passes. His 6.0% walk rate (80th percentile) and 36.8% hard-hit rate (73rd) are encouraging underlying stats. 

Meanwhile, the Tigers have subpar numbers vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, ranking 25th in wOBA, 24th in wRC+, and 28th in strikeout rate. Detroit has just a .253 wOBA (29th) and 61 wRC+ (29th) vs. righties over the past week as well. 

Let’s grab the under for the full game and the first five innings. We know Skubal will handle the Orioles’ lineup, but Kremer can be productive enough to keep things lower-scoring. The under is 14-6 in Detroit’s last 20 games. The under is 9-2 in Baltimore’s last 11 contests.  

 

 

Yankees vs. Royals Predictions: Thursday, June 12th

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals wrap up their mid-week series tonight. The first two games have seen 12 and 9 runs scored, respectively. Let’s target some overs for the series finale based on the starting pitching matchup with two dangerous offenses.

Yankees starter Will Warren has a shaky 5.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his first full big-league season. He’s been solid at times, but also has struggled to a 5.13 ERA since the beginning of May (seven starts). The right-hander has coughed up 11 total runs over his past two outings combined as well. 

Plus, Warren’s home/road splits are going against him today. He has a rough 6.54 ERA and a .276 batting average allowed on the road (8 starts). Compare that to his 3.86 ERA and .191 BA allowed at home (5 starts). He’s worth fading on the road in a sneaky-tough matchup. 

The Royals, meanwhile, are crushing right-handed pitching lately. Over the past week vs. righties, they’re hitting a league-best .297 with a .354 wOBA (6th in MLB), 125 wRC+ (6th), and a low 15.5% strikeout rate (2nd). The KC offense has underwhelmed for much of this season, but it’s woken up recently – averaging 4.6 runs over the past eight contests. 

On the other side, Royals starter Seth Lugo likely runs into trouble of his own. The right-hander has a decent 3.46 ERA this season, but his 4.85 FIP and 5.21 xERA point to negative regression. Lugo has some worrisome advanced stats with a 47.4% hard-hit rate (13th percentile) and .289 xBA (10th) combined with an 18.7% whiff rate (10th) and 21.6% chase rate (2nd). 

That inability to miss bats while also giving up hard contact is a recipe for disaster against the Yankees. This offense has been elite vs. right-handers all season with a .349 wOBA (2nd in MLB), 126 wRC+ (1st), .206 ISO (2nd), and .803 OPS (2nd). Over the past two weeks vs. righties, New York has a .376 wOBA and 146 wRC+ in the split. 

Luigo faced the Yankees back in April and gave up 4 runs on 7 hits. It might be worse this time around. New York is averaging 7.2 runs per game over the past week. That includes 16 total runs in the first two games of this series vs. Kansas City. Meanwhile, Lugo has a 5.18 FIP and 4.00 ERA over his past five starts. 

Take the over for the full game and the first five innings. The Yankees’ offense should pace a higher-scoring game, but the Royals can add to the total as well against Warren. The over is 7-1 to the over in Kansas City’s past eight games and 12-6 in the past 18 contests. The over is 8-3 in New York’s last 11 games as well. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/12