MLB Best Bets Today, 4/22: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Tuesday
Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on.
Tuesday’s slate is filled with 15 games on the baseball schedule with all 30 teams in action. Before the games get going, let’s find some winning MLB predictions and picks. We’ll focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider.
Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. Also, all bets below are for one unit. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/22
Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an interleague matchup between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles. Is there value on the underdog in the East Coast rivalry?
We’ll also dive into a potentially high-scoring battle between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Tampa Bay Rays for our second round of MLB predictions. Check out the MLB best bets and props to make as you enjoy Tuesday’s baseball action.
Orioles vs. Nationals Predictions: Tuesday, April 22nd
Tuesday night marks the Belway Series opener between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles. Both teams are below .500 on the season ahead of this matchup. The starting pitchers and key offensive splits point us towards some value here.
Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is off to a strong start to the season. The left-hander boasts a 1.85 ERA through four starts with one run or fewer allowed in three of his outings. Parker doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s still been very effective early on. He’s in the 96th percentile in Pitching Run Value and 90th percentile in barrel rate, per Baseball Savant.
Parker may be due for negative regression at some point, but it likely won’t come in this matchup. The Orioles are terrible against left-handed pitching this year. Against southpaws, the O’s are hitting .184 (29th in MLB) with a .237 wOBA (29th), 27.5% strikeout rate (26th) and .069 ISO (30th).
Meanwhile, Parker has been excellent at home throughout his young career. As a rookie last year, he posted a 2.65 home ERA. So far this season, he’s allowed only one run across two home starts. We should feel confident in Parker limiting this Baltimore lineup that’s regularly struggled against lefties.
On the other side, Orioles starter Dean Kremer has an ugly 6.41 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through four starts. The right-hander’s 5.78 FIP and 4.61 xERA aren’t much better either. Kremer’s issues on the road this year are glaring, too. He’s allowed 14 runs on 21 hits across 14.1 road innings (three starts).
Kremer gets a sneaky-tough matchup on the road tonight. The Nationals have just a 19.7% K rate against right-handed pitching this year (6th in MLB) with a 9.9% walk rate in the split (8th). They’re also an above-average offense at home (.340 wOBA, .197 ISO, .777 OPS). The Nats will make Kremer earn it and won’t go down easy.
There’s clear value on backing Washington to win outright and lead after five innings for our MLB picks. Parker profiles as the better pitcher right now compared to Kremer. The Orioles’ offensive issues against lefties is also impossible to ignore at this point.
- Expert Orioles vs. Nationals Picks:
- Washington Moneyline (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Washington 1st 5 Innings ML (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Rays vs. Diamondbacks Predictions: Tuesday, April 22nd
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays in an interleague matchup between two playoff-hopeful teams. We should see some scoring in this one as both offenses have advantages against their respective opposing pitchers.
Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has a solid 3.04 ERA through four starts, but he’s also a prime sell-high candidate. The right-hander’s 5.25 xERA and 5.02 FIP suggest some negative regression due to a high 95.0% left-on-base rate and lower .250 BABIP. A poor outing or two could be coming for a guy who had a 4.71 ERA last year and a 5.72 ERA the season prior.
Tampa Bay presents a tough matchup for Pfaadt. The Rays are a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching with a .340 wOBA (5th), 129 wRC+ (3rd), and .279 BA (2nd). Meanwhile, Pfaadt has struggled at home throughout his career. He had a 5.09 ERA across 16 home starts last year and a 6.46 ERA in 10 home starts two seasons ago.
On the other side, Arizona’s offense should get to Tampa starter Zack Littell. The right-hander has struggled to a 5.48 ERA and 5.55 FIP through four starts. His Statcast profile doesn’t offer much confidence either. Littell has a 19.8% whiff rate (16th MLB percentile), 14.3% barrel rate (11th), .276 xBA (25th), and 47.1% hard-hit rate (23rd). Hitters are regularly squaring him up, which doesn’t bode well for a righty who doesn’t throw hard.
It also spells trouble when facing the dangerous lineup like Arizona’s on the road tonight. The Diamondbacks are crushing right-handed pitching this season with a .359 wOBA (1st in MLB), 127 wRC+ (4th), .230 ISO (1st), and .830 OPS (1st). This could be rough for Littell, who’s allowed 5+ runs in two of his past three starts.
Grab the over for the full game and the first five innings to round out our MLB best bets today. Either or both of Pfaadt and Littell can run into trouble early on to anchor a higher-scoring game.
- Expert Rays vs. Diamondbacks Picks:
- Over 9 Total Runs (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/22
- Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros – Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-135 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers – Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fernando Tatis, San Diego Padres – Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Athletics Moneyline (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.