MLB Best Bets Today, 9/7: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Saturday
Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!
Our top MLB predictions today feature a marquee AL Central matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals. We also take a closer look at Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres taking on the San Francisco Giants. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props today. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 9/7
As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing.
Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, September 7th.
Twins vs. Royals Prediction: Saturday, September 7th
This weekend’s series between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals includes a ton of playoff implications. Both are AL Wild Card teams right now but they’re also both still trying to catch the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central division crown. Let’s see how to bet on Saturday night’s game.
Let’s get one thing out of the way, first off. The Twins and Royals are both facing right-handed starting pitchers tonight. Before we get to those starters, understand that both offenses have not hit right-handers well lately. Over the past week in the split, the Twins have a .265 wOBA, 72 WRC+, and .214 BA while the Royals have a .250 wOBA, 54 wRC+, and .189 BA.
The difference-making edge today, though, is in that starting pitching matchup. Twins righty Bailey Ober has been very effective and consistent lately with a 2.99 ERA over his past 13 outings with 12 quality starts in this stretch. If we take out his recent blowup outing in which he allowed 9 runs over 2 innings to the Braves, Ober has a 2.05 ERA over those 12 other latest starts.
Ober immediately gives the Twins an advantage on the mound. On the other side, Royals starter Alec Marsh has been shaky since returning to the rotation. He’s allowed 7 runs over 9.2 combined innings (2 starts). Marsh was recently sent down to Triple-A at the end of July and the only reason he’s starting for Kansas City is because Michael Lorenzen is out.
Marsh has a 4.70 ERA and 4.92 xERA this year. He looks very hittable right now and the Twins plated 5 runs against him earlier this season. The Minnesota bullpen has also been a bit better over the past two weeks (4.53 ERA) than the Royals (6.33 ERA).
Grab the Twins on the moneyline for the full game and first five innings. Minnesota also had a 7-3 head-to-head record against Kansas City this season ahead of this series.
Expert Twins vs. Royals MLB Picks
- Twins Moneyline (-142 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Twins ML (-135 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Giants vs. Padres Prediction: Saturday, September 7th
Saturday night gives us an NL West matchup between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres. On the surface, Logan Webb vs. Dylan Cease may seem like a coin flip. However, these starters are going in opposite directions lately and the offensive splits clearly favor one side.
Since the middle of July, Cease has looked more like the Cy Young contender we’re used to seeing. The San Diego right-hander has a 2.45 ERA and 2.73 FIP over his past 10 starts. He also has 63 strikeouts over 55 innings and just a .173 BA against in this stretch. Cease has been especially lights-out at home with a 1.69 ERA over his past 5 home outings.
Cease will take on a Giants offense that’s struggled against righties lately. Over the past two weeks vs. right-handers, San Francisco has a .283 wOBA (26th in MLB), .210 BA (28th), and 29.1% K rate (29th). This is a good spot for Cease to keep it going with his current form.
Meanwhile, Webb has been shaky for the majority of the past two months now. The Giants right-hander has a 4.06 ERA over his last 10 starts with 4+ runs allowed in half of those. He’s coughed up 10 runs and 12 hits combined in his last past two outings as well.
Webb also has some notable home/road splits going against him here. He has a 4.29 ERA on the road compared to a 2.67 ERA at home this season. Plus, he’s allowed at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 6 road starts. Now Webb has to face a potent San Diego offense that boasts top-10 numbers vs. righties over the past two weeks (.345 wOBA, 126 wRC+, .278 BA).
Take the Padres on the moneyline for the full game and first five innings. Cease is on a higher tier than Webb right now and the San Diego offense is much more trustworthy than the Giants.
Expert Giants vs. Padres MLB Picks
- Padres Moneyline (-148 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Padres ML (-145 BetMGM)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/7
- Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-160 BetMGM)
- Aaron Nola To Record Win (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tyler Anderson Over 16.5 Outs (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 BetMGM)