MLB Best Bets Today, 6/28: Expert Picks, Predictions & Props On Friday
If you’re looking for the top MLB Best Bets and Props for today, Fantasy Alam has everything you need. The Friday 15-game MLB slate is jam-packed with exciting matchups beginning with an NL East divisional matchup between the first-place Philadelphia Phillies squaring off against the last-place Miami Marlins.
We also have Marcus Stroman returning to Toronto to face the Blue Jays, the team that originally drafted him, as well as guys like Max Scherzer, Logan Gilbert and Logan Webb on the mound tonight. We’ll dive into the latest Vegas odds and lines to see where the betting value is but expect to see a number of pitcher props lined up for tonight.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/28
The rebuilding of our bankroll continues as we are coming off another winning effort. The Thursday MLB predictions were pretty spot on as we successfully backed the Chicago Cubs early on, Zack Wheeler and the Phillies and also went against some pitchers like Jordan Montgomery and Jon Gray who both got blown up.
Overall, it was a great day, we turned a profit of almost 3.5 units and we’re ready to carry that momentum into the weekend with a strong Friday night. Let’s get to it!
- Yesterday’s Record: 6-2
- Season Record: 273-245-6
- Bankroll: -1.51 units
Padres vs. Red Sox Prediction: Friday, June 28
Padres starter Randy Vasquez has been getting pounded by left-handed hitters all season long and with the lineup the Red Sox are putting out there on the regular, it could be a long night for the 25-year-old righty. Not only does he have a 5.10 ERA with a horrendous 1.68 WHIP, but he’s allowing lefty hitters to post a .532 wOBA against him. With the way guys like Jaren Duran and Rafael Devers have their hitting props juiced, we’re going to lean into these hitters and grab the value on their early team total.
My MLB best bets today will also lean on the fact that when Nick Pivetta gets an early lead, all he does is pound the strike zone, daring hitters to take him on. The Padres may hit righties well, but they swing a ton and only have a 7.5-percent walk rate against them. And over the past week, that walk rate has dipped to 6.3-percent. Pivetta had a mini walk-binge in late May, but he’s righted the ship and has gone under his walk prop in each of the last two starts and in seven of his 11 starts this season.
- Expert Padres vs. Red Sox Picks:
- Boston F5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-125 on DraftKings)
- Nick Pivetta Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-120 on Bet365)
Nationals vs. Rays Prediction: Friday, June 28
The Nationals are on the seventh game of this current road trip, bouncing from Colorado to San Diego and now all the way back across the country to Tampa. I may not be the biggest Zach Eflin fan, but the Nats bats are going to be a little road-weary here. I don’t need him to shut them out with my MLB picks, but limiting the damage is more than possible, at least just to help keep the score down.
On the flipside, I’m actually a Mitchell Parker fan and like him even more against a Rays team that has struck out nearly 24-percent of the time against righties. While the Rays have hit the ball reasonably well in recent games, they lack patience at the plate and are swinging at a ton of pitches right now. Parker’s gone over his current strikeout prop in six of his last 10 starts, including an eight-strikeout game in Coors Field his last time out.
- Expert Nationals vs. Rays Picks:
- Washington vs. Tampa Bay F5 Innings Total Under 4.5 Runs (-122 on FanDuel)
- Mitchell Parker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102 on FanDuel)
Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction: Friday, June 28
Cubs righthander Jameson Taillon has tossed three straight quality starts with an 18:3 K:BB over that span, so of course we’re backing him today, right? Nope! Not against these Brewers at home in Milwaukee. He faced them in Milwaukee back in late May and allowed three runs in six innings.
His strikeout rate was low then and now he’s taking on a group that has a .343 wOBA with a 10.1-percent walk-rate over their last six games. I’m a big fan of this Brewers lineup and if the props weren’t so juiced up on Christian Yelich and Willy Adames, I’d add them to my betting card. On the other side of these MLB predictions is Colin Rea and while I won’t vouch for him as a shutdown starter, I was a big fan of what he did in recent starts against the Reds and Blue Jays.
He got hit hard by the Padres on the road, but he’s now back at home where he has a 2.76 ERA and is allowing just a .273 wOBA to hitters. The Cubs have a .303 wOBA over their last six games and that comes with a massive 29.8-percent strikeout rate. We’ll back the Brew Crew early.
- Expert Cubs vs. Brewers Picks:
- Milwaukee First 5 Innings Money Line (-124 on FanDuel)
- Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102 on FanDuel)
Best MLB Props For Today, 6/28: Pitchers
- Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
- Slade Cecconi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
- Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Drew Thorpe Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Dakota Hudson Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Bailey Ober Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)