We have another full 15-game slate of MLB games on Sunday with plenty of ways to go for top baseball picks. Check out these MLB best bets and predictions as you enjoy the action. Our best MLB picks today feature a showdown between two top National League contenders as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves. We also have picks for the AL West matchup of the Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros. Plus, check out a few top MLB player props to lock in for Saturday’s games.

MLB Best Bets For Today: Saturday, May 4

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out the MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Saturday, May 4th. 

 

Braves vs Dodgers Prediction Today, 5/4

Tyler Glasnow is putting up excellent numbers in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers so far. The right-hander has a 5-1 record, 2.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 31.5% strikeout rate through his first seven starts. Glasnow’s advanced metrics also suggest he can keep this going, as evidenced by a 2.55 xERA and 2.72 FIP. If you take out Glasnow’s six-run blowup against the Nationals, he boasts a 1.67 ERA in his six other starts this year. 

Though a matchup against the Atlanta Braves is tough on the surface, Glasnow can still post another good outing. The Braves have strong season-long numbers against right-handed pitching but are struggling in the split recently. Over the past week vs righties, the Atlanta offense has a .251 wOBA, 58 wRC+, .554 OPS, .211 BA, and 28.9% K rate. We won’t be able to target against this lineup often but it’s a favorable spot for Glasnow at home.

On the other side, we should see the Dodgers offense provide run support against Braves starter Bryce Elder. The righty has a 1.50 ERA through two starts so far this season but is due for negative regression based on a 4.21 xERA, 3.64 FIP, and 88.9% left-on-base rate. Elder benefited from facing the Marlins in his first outing but then showed cracks against the Guardians last weekend. He might be in for a rude awakening here on the road against a dangerous Dodgers lineup. 

The LA offense is smashing right-handed pitching this year. The Dodgers lead the MLB in wOBA (.352), wRC+ (127), OPS (.795), and batting average (.278) against righties. Over the past week, they are a top-5 offense in the split as well. The Dodgers should get to Elder enough as Glasnow anchors things from the mound. Let’s take them in the first five innings and the full game. 

Expert Braves vs Dodgers Predictions

  • Dodgers Moneyline (-166 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Dodgers 1st 5 Innings -0.5 Runline (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
 


Mariners vs Astros Prediction Today, 5/4

The first month or so of the Houston Astros’ season hasn’t exactly gone as expected. Before Friday’s games, their 11-20 record was tied for the second-worst in the American League while being tied for last in the AL West. However, this is still a team that was the betting favorite to win the division and among the top World Series contenders before the season began. This is a good time to buy low on Houston and we’ll do it tonight against the Seattle Mariners. 

Framber Valdez has a 2.60 ERA and 2.68 FIP through three starts for the Astros so far. It was encouraging to see him return from the Injured List last weekend with five solid innings of two-run ball in the hitter-friendly Mexico City stadium. Valdez should hold Seattle’s offense in check at home here. 

The Mariners have a bottom-tier offense vs left-handed pitching this year (.284 wOBA, 87 wRC+, .214 BA, .625 OPS). Over the past two weeks, Seattle has been even worse against southpaws with a .253 wOBA, 67 wRC+, .208 BA, and .571 OPS in the split. Meanwhile, Valdez owns a career 3.00 ERA vs the division-rival Mariners in 12 outings (10 starts).

While Valdez does his thing on the mound, look for the Astros offense to provide run support against Mariners starter Logan Gilbert. The right-hander has an impressive 2.03 ERA through six starts, but he’s likely due for negative regression when we dive deeper into his advanced stats. Gilbert’s low .196 BABIP and high 92.0% left-on-base rate say he’s been a bit lucky, while his 3.39 xERA and 3.24 FIP are notably higher than that ERA. 

As for the Astros, they can do damage against right-handed pitching. Houston has one of the top offenses vs righties this season with a .328 wOBA, 114 wRC+, and .148 ISO. Over the past week, the ‘Stros are hitting righties slightly better with a .360 wOBA, 135 wRC+, and .205 ISO. This is a tough road spot for Gilbert against an offense that’s starting to wake up lately, averaging 8.0 runs per game over the past five contests. 

Expert Mariners vs Astros Predictions

  • Astros Moneyline (-142 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Astros 1st 5 Innings ML (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Best MLB Player Props Today, 5/4