MLB Best Bets Today, 4/29 - Expert Picks, Predictions, Props, & Odds
A new week means another fresh start for our MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets today!
Raise your hand if you cleaned up on Aaron Judge MLB props all weekend. We all knew it was just a matter of time and the New York Yankees captain did not disappoint, going 5-for-8 with two home runs and five RBI over the weekend.
The Bronx Bombers travel to Baltimore tonight and take on the Orioles and Grayson Rodriguez. Already, Judge’s props look juiced up. You had a quick window of opportunity over the weekend, but now we’re going to have to wait for another cold spell before we can get some value. IF there is another cold spell, that is.
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MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 4/29
Regardless of Judge’s status or performance, it’s time to jump into today’s slate and see where we want to invest. We’ve got a nice 12-game slate to dive into and, even better, we’ve got until 6:35 PM ET to get ourselves ready.
Personally, I like the lack of day games as it gives us ample time to sift through and find some value. We had a bit of a tough day on Friday, but we’re still in the black here with this season’s MLB predictions. Or green, I should say.
- Season Record: 68-59-1
- Bankroll: +3.02 units
*The MLB odds will be shown accordingly alongside each of the respective MLB best bets.
Phillies vs. Angels Prediction: Monday, April 29
This game is primarily about the Phillies bats versus Angels righthander Griffin Canning. Philadelphia is sporting a .324 wOBA against righties this season and they’re also hitting for power, as evidenced by the .181 ISO against them as well.
We saw lefty-swinging Bryce Harper return from paternity leave to return to form and guys like Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and even Bryson Stott are always dangerous against righthanded pitching. And that’s not even bringing up Alec Bohm who is white-hot, though the books have really tightened up on his props for today. Either way, the Phillies bats get it done.
On the other side, lefty Cristopher Sanchez is on the bump, and I think he holds the Angels lineup in check; at least enough to give the Phillies the lead early. But we cannot ignore how Luis Rengifo swings the bat against left-handed pitching, not to mention Brandon Drury who is still working his way back from a hamstring issue.
Sanchez should be just fine, but we’ll look to Rengifo to give the Halos some life here to start off today’s MLB picks.
- Expert Phillies vs. Angels Picks:
- Phillies First 5 Innings Moneyline (-135 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Phillies First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Monday, April 29
We are all very much aware of the deficiencies of Arizona lefty Tommy Henry. The Dodgers are patient at the plate and have a .333 wOBA against southpaws this season, so it’s very difficult for me not to invest in their bats for this match-up. They’ll score some runs for us and likely chase Henry a little early too. But on the other side, I’m just not confident in James Paxton to come through for any MLB predictions today.
Not only is he walking far too many guys (sadly, the books have his walks prop juiced up a little too much for my liking), but the DBacks have a league-leading .377 wOBA against southpaws with an even more impressive 139wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) against them. Arizona, like the Dodgers, should attack early enough to get that team total up within the first five innings.
- Expert Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Picks:
- Dodgers First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tommy Henry Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-130 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Cardinals vs. Tigers Prediction: Monday, April 29
THIS GAME HAS BEN POSTPONED – ALL BETS ARE CANCELED
The last of our MLB picks is an interesting one and I wouldn’t be surprised if some people faded here. I like Kenta Maeda against the Cardinals as they are posting a .293 wOBA against righties this season and that number has dropped to .283 over the past week. St. Louis continues to shift players around and while they’ll come at him with a lefty-heavy lineup, I still think he can hold this group in check for the most part.
On the other side, Steven Matz is terrible. Absolutely atrocious. But not only are the Tigers posting a .283 wOBA against southpaws this season, they are fanning nearly 23-percent of the time, and they aren’t swinging with any real power. In fact, the .120 ISO against lefties is awful.
So does the sunshine on a dog’s ass at least once here with Matz? Maybe a little. Not enough to shut down Detroit completely, but enough to keep the score from getting completely out of hand.
- Expert Cardinals vs. Tigers Picks:
- St. Louis vs. Detroit Under 8.5 Total Runs (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mark Canha Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best MLB Props Today, 4/29
- Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Bailey Falter Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Bailey Falter Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Max Fried Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Thanks for taking the time to read my MLB predictions for today! Don't forget to check out all the fantastic resources available here at Fantasy Alarm.