MLB Best Bets Today, 4/16 - Expert Picks, Predictions, Props, & Odds
Who’s ready to dive into some MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets for today? We enjoyed another strong day of betting in Monday’s MLB picks writeup and find ourselves on a little bit of a heater right now.
That’s right, baby! We are back in the black! It’s only been a couple of days, so we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but it is a great sign that the process is set, and we just needed to make a few minor tweaks in our approach. Betting the first five innings as opposed to the full game has been very good to us and with more data available, we are in a nice groove with betting on MLB props.
MLB Best Bets & Prop Bets For Today: Tuesday, April 16
We will continue to analyze the pitching in the same way and continue to maintain similar volume each day. That has been our bread and butter lately, so let’s keep at it and see what looks good for today’s MLB predictions for the action on the diamond.
- Yesterday’s Record: 9-2
- Season Record: 48-39
- Bankroll: +5.47 units
*MLB odds for each pick will be displayed next to the choice.
Twins vs. Orioles Prediction Today, 4/16
First up with today’s MLB picks, we are going right back to the well with ace Grayson Rodriguez on the bump against a Twins team that has the second-worst team wOBA (.274) against right-handed pitching and strikes out 27.8% of the time against them.
Minnesota has dropped its last two games, they’re 3-7 over their last 10, and are sitting with a minus-10 run differential. They just lost Carlos Correa to the injured list and the team is struggling to put consistent hits together.
On the other side, the Orioles lineup gets a look at Chris Paddack who looked respectable his last time out against the Dodgers but couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. The Orioles have been fierce against right-handed pitching, posting a .343 wOBA with a .211 ISO and should have no issues here. I expect their bats to take care of business nice and early.
- Expert Twins vs. Orioles Picks:
- Baltimore -0.5 Run Line - First 5 Innings (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Grayson Rodriguez Over 17.5 Outs (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Angels vs. Rays Prediction Today, 4/16
Next up in my MLB predictions is a bit of an anomaly. I don’t often use a pitcher when he is facing the same team for two consecutive starts, but I’m a big fan of Civale and, outside of Mike Trout, there really aren’t a whole lot of threats in this lineup.
Civale likes to pound the strike zone and challenge hitters, so while Trout might get the better of him, I think Civale can at least duplicate what he did the last time which was limit them to two runs on just four hits and one walk over five innings. Meanwhile, the Angels are throwing Jose Soriano who got slapped around for four runs on six hits (one home run) by these Rays in his last outing which also happened to be his first start of the season.
He’s been working middle relief and that’s probably where he belongs, but the Halos are in need of a starter, and he’ll get the call. The Rays have been solid against righties this season and should be able to jump on Soriano fairly quickly.
- Expert Angels vs. Rays Picks:
- Tampa Bay -0.5 Run Line - First 5 Innings (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Aaron Civale Under 1.5 Walks (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Giants vs. Marlins Prediction Today, 4/16
Another game we’re going right back to today as the Marlins are just a team of disaster. They jumped out to an early lead on lefty Kyle Harrison, but the Giants bats worked their way back for the win.
Jordan Hicks has looked great since opening the season as a starter and while we don’t know how many innings he’ll throw this season; we can relish in the fact that the Giants feel good about his arm and will let him throw 90 pitches in a game. The Fish are going to have their fins full.
With Ryan Weathers on the mound for Miami, I’m happy to look at the Giants in the early part of the game. They have the fifth highest wOBA against southpaws this season (.348) and they don’t strike out. They’re unlikely to power up as they work their way through but will likely get it done with a barrage of hits. Not a huge value to win the full game or even the first five but enough for us to bet it and round out today’s MLB picks.
- Expert Giants vs. Marlins Picks:
- San Francisco First 5 Innings Money Line (-132 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Wilmer Flores Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best MLB Props Today, April 16
- Tommy Henry Under 16.5 Outs (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Will Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.