Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Rays vs. Dodgers and Mets vs. Padres matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/24

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, August 24th.

 

 


 

Rays vs. Dodgers Prediction Today, August 24th

With the Diamondbacks and Padres breathing down their necks, the Los Angeles Dodgers have picked up their own winning ways lately as the NL West race heats up. The Dodgers are 11-3 over their past 14 games overall and 14-3 in their last 17 home contests. Let’s back them to keep it going in Saturday’s home matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Clayton Kershaw toes the rubber for Los Angeles and that immediately should give us confidence in the home favorites. Through five starts, the veteran left-hander has a 2.63 ERA and he’s looked more like his old self lately. Kershaw just tossed 6 shutout innings last time out against St. Louis and he’s allowed only 2 runs over his past 3 starts combined. In this stretch, he has a 13:3 K:BB ratio and .214 BA allowed across 16.1 innings. 

We have to feel good about Kershaw now getting a very favorable home matchup here. The Rays have terrible numbers against left-handed pitching in the month of August (.232 wOBA, 51 wRC+, .156 BA, 29.6% K rate). The Tampa offense also has struggled on the road this month (.273 wOBA, 75 wRC+, .207 BA, 28.7% strikeout rate). 

This Tampa lineup right now is very weak once you get past the top four hitters or so. The Rays are averaging just 3.0 runs per game since the trade deadline, when they dealt away Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. They’re rolling with multiple young players that may be helpless against Kershaw, who has a career 2.20 ERA in Dodger Stadium. 

On the other side, expect the Los Angeles lineup to get to Rays starter Taj Bradley. A month ago, Bradley had a 2.43 ERA but has since struggled. Over his past four starts, the right-hander has a 8.10 ERA and 6.21 FIP with 18 runs allowed over 20 innings. He’s also getting hit hard with a .321 BA and .980 OPS allowed in these past four outings. 

Bradley’s season-long ERA is now up to 3.55 and there may be even more negative regression coming based on his 3.99 xERA, 3.96 FIP, and low .264 BABIP. There are some worrisome metrics in Bradley’s Statcast profile as well: 10.6% barrel rate (8th MLB percentile), 91.1 mph average exit velo (3rd), 41.9% hard-hit rate (24th). 

That inability to limit hard contact becomes more worrisome in this matchup against the Dodgers. The LA offense was already dangerous at the top, but it’s now gotten some key bats back in the lineup with Max Muncy and Tommy Edman recently returning from injury. This is a tough batting order to get through and it’s hard to see Bradley having success – especially in his current form. The Dodgers are also a top-10 offense vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.335 wOBA, 117 wRC+). 

Take the Dodgers on the runline for the full game (even at home) and to lead after five innings. Let’s also grab a few props with Kershaw and Bradley based on the above breakdown. 

Expert Diamondbacks vs. Rays Picks

  • Dodgers -1.5 Runline (+125 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Dodgers -0.5 RL (-120 BetMGM)
  • Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135 BetMGM)
  • Taj Bradley Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-120 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Mets vs. Padres Prediction Today, August 24th

One of the most intriguing series this MLB weekend features the San Diego Padres hosting the New York Mets with plenty of playoff implications on the line. Both squads are jockeying for NL Wild Card spots right now and these results could go a long way to determining postseason berths. Let’s see how to bet the Saturday night clash. 

Michael King is in excellent form for San Diego ahead of his start tonight. The right-hander boasts a 2.08 ERA, 2.16 FIP, and 10.9 K/9 rate over his past 8 outings. He’s also been pitching well for a few months now with a 2.39 ERA and 2.03 FIP since the beginning of June (13 starts). King has some elite season-long advanced metrics with a 30.2% hard-hit rate (96th MLB percentile), 85.5 mph average exit velo (97th), 28.5% K rate (87th), and 5.5% barrel rate (84th). 

With King pitching so well lately, the Padres are 7-1 in his past 8 starts and 13-5 in his past 18 outings. Despite the Mets having good numbers against righties over the past two weeks (.340 wOBA, 124 wRC+), King is worth backing at home here. He has a 2.54 ERA over his past seven home starts. 

Meanwhile, the Padres should provide run support in their own matchup. Mets starter David Peterson has a solid 3.00 ERA this year, but his underlying metrics suggest major negative regression. The left-hander has a 5.16 xERA, 4.27 FIP, and 4.28 xFIP with an unsustainable 81.2% strand rate. Peterson also has some worrisome advanced stats with a 19.1% K rate (20th percentile), 10.4% walk rate (21st), 44.8% hard-hit rate (9th), and .272 xBA (13th). 

That regression is looming against a San Diego offense that’s crushing left-handed pitching lately. The Padres have a .351 wOBA, 129 wRC+, .284 BA, and .813 OPS against southpaws this month. This may be where Peterson comes back down to Earth as we back the Padres at home for the first five innings and full game moneylines.

Expert Mets vs. Padres Picks

  • Padres Moneyline (-144 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Padres ML (-150 BetMGM)

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 8/24