MLB Best Bets For Today, 8/18 - Expert Picks, Predictions, & Props
Welcome back to another Sunday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!
Our top MLB predictions today feature the Diamondbacks vs. Rays and Giants vs. Athletics matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/18
As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing.
Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, August 18th.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays Prediction Today, August 18th
Our top MLB pick today takes us to an interleague matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays. The Diamondbacks are on a roll lately, winning 18 of their last 23 games. The Rays, meanwhile, are scuffling with a 4-7 mark of their past 11 contests. Let’s see how to bet this Sunday afternoon game.
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona in his second outing back in the rotation. The right-hander was sidelined since mid-April with a shoulder injury but returned last week and held the Phillies in check with just 2 runs and 3 hits allowed over 5 solid innings. Kelly was been very effective in limited action this year with a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 5 starts.
Kelly will take on a Rays offense that’s arguably the league’s worst against right-handed pitching this month. Tampa has a .271 wOBA (30th in MLB), 79 wRC+ (29th), .616 OPS (30th), .223 batting average (26th), and .110 ISO (30th) against righties in August. Kelly should limit this lineup that has bottom-tier season-long splits vs. right-handers overall (.292 wOBA, 92 wRC+).
Meanwhile, the Rays will use right-hander Drew Rasmussen as the opener with left-hander Tyler Alexander as the bulk pitcher today. Alexander has a 5.20 ERA across 71 innings in the majors and now gets a tough matchup as he throws the majority of innings. Arizona is crushing left-handed pitching this month with a .361 wOBA, 132 wRC+, .296 BA, .840 OPS, and low 17.6% K rate.
Even with an opener ahead of him, Alexander should have trouble keeping the Diamondbacks quiet today. Take Arizona on the moneyline. The Rays won the first two games of this series, which points us even more to the Dbacks – who haven’t been swept in a 3-game series since April.
Expert Diamondbacks vs. Rays Picks
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (-124 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Giants vs. Athletics Prediction Today, August 18th
For our second MLB pick today, let’s head out to the Bay Area for an interleague clash between the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics. The starting pitching matchup of Blake Snell vs. JP Sears points to a low-scoring contest and that’s what we’re targeting.
In case you haven’t noticed, Snell has looked like the best pitcher in baseball since he returned from injury in July. The left-hander has a 0.99 ERA and .097 batting average against over his past 7 starts. He’s also struck out 8+ opposing batters in 5 of his last 6 outings. Snell has lowered his ERA to 3.91 and there’s likely even more positive regression coming, considering his 2.61 xERA and 2.93 FIP.
Bank on Snell continuing his hot stretch of elite starts in this matchup against Oakland. Against left-handed pitching this month, the A’s have just a .305 wOBA and .217 BA. Though the offense has been feisty lately, Snell should do his thing with how well he’s throwing.
On the other side, Sears can hold the the Giants hitters in check as well. The Oakland lefty has been much better recently with an impressive 2.91 ERA and .212 batting average allowed over his past 7 starts. If we take out his blowup outing against Houston in July, Sears has a 1.69 ERA in his 6 other recent starts.
The San Francisco offense has just league-average numbers against left-handers in August (.318 wOBA, 107 wRC+). In this stretch, the Giants have a high 27.4% strikeout rate and low 6.3% walk rate vs. southpaws. That matters more here as Sears has increased his strikeouts recently with a 39:8 K:BB ratio since the start of July (43.1 innings).
Grab the under for the full game and first five innings as Snell and Sears anchor a low-scoring matchup.
Expert Giants vs. Athletics Picks
- Under 7.5 Total Runs (-115 BetMGM)
- 1st 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-125 BetMGM)
Best MLB Player Props Today, 8/18
- George Kirby 6+ Strikeouts (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Charlie Morton Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-140 BetMGM)
- Framber Valdez To Record Win (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Taijuan Walker Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.