Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Rangers vs. Blue Jays and the Mariners vs. White Sox matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. 

Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/27

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, July 27th.

 

 


 

Rangers vs. Blue Jays Prediction Today, July 27th

At the beginning of the season, a late-July series between the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays seemed like a potential playoff matchup preview. Well, both squads have underperformed and are on the wrong side of the AL Wild Card standings. Even so, Saturday afternoon’s game could see some fireworks. 

Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto and we immediately have to mention his poor home splits. The veteran right-hander has an ugly 6.96 ERA and 1.64 WHIP across 10 home starts – compared to a 2.34 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the road. Gausman has also been shaky lately with a 5.55 ERA over his past 6 starts and a 4.95 ERA since the beginning of June (nine starts). 

Gausman’s 22.2% strikeout rate and 16.6% K-BB rate are way down from last year’s marks (31.1% K rate and 23.9% K-BB). His 5.12 xERA (10th MLB percentile), .272 xBA (16th), 11.4% barrel rate (5th), and 42.9% hard-hit rate (18th) are all worrisome metrics as well. Although the Rangers have average numbers against righties this month (.315 wOBA, 102 wRC+), this is still a good spot to fade Gausman. 

Meanwhile, we should see the Toronto offense add to the total in its own matchup. Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen has a decent 3.53 ERA this year, but his 4.76 xERA and 5.09 FIP suggest negative regression. The righty’s low .233 BABIP and high 82.5% strand rate are key indicators of that. We’ve seen the struggles lately as Lorenzen has a 4.94 ERA and 5.91 FIP over his past 6 starts. 

As for the Blue Jays, they are hitting righties well lately. The Toronto offense has a .331 wOBA, 117 wRC+, .779 OPS, and .275 BA in the split over the past two weeks. Plus, the Jays have low strikeout and walk rates against right-handers in this recent stretch (18.6% and 4.6%, respectively). This is a tough spot for Lorenzen, who has an 18.5% K rate (21st MLB percentile) and 11.6% walk rate (14th). 

Take the over in this Rangers vs. Blue Jays matchup. Though the offenses have underwhelmed this year overall, Gausman and Lorenzen could both run into trouble early. Grab the over for the first five innings as well. 

Expert Rangers vs. Blue Jays Picks

  • Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105 BetMGM)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Mariners vs. White Sox Prediction Today, July 27th

As the MLB Trade Deadline nears, two teams who could be prominently involved are the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox – though for two entirely different reasons. The Mariners have already acquired Randy Arozarena and could continue to buy, while the White Sox will surely deal away multiple players in the coming days. Let’s see how to bet on this Saturday evening matchup. 

Erick Fedde starts for Chicago in what could be his last outing before joining a new team at the deadline. The right-hander is having an impressive season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Fedde has been especially effective at home, where he boasts a 1.47 ERA. He’s getting it done with a career-low 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 36.3% hard-hit rate (67th MLB percentile). 

Though Fedde’s predictive metrics suggest some negative regression (3.64 xERA, 3.68 FIP), it likely won’t come in this spot. The Mariners are struggling mightily against right-handed pitching lately with a .273 wOBA (29th in MLB), 79 wRC+ (27th), .193 BA (30th), and 29.6% strikeout rate (30th) in the split this month. Fedde has tossed a quality start in 5 of his last 7 outings with a 2.59 ERA over this stretch. 

Meanwhile, Bryan Woo should limit the Chicago bats on the other side of this one. The Seattle righty boasts a 2.54 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Woo’s 2.51 xERA (97th percentile), 2.6% walk rate (99th), and 2.7% barrel rate (98th) are all promising too. He’ll face a weak White Sox offense that’s the league’s worst against right-handed pitching this year. During July, the ChiSox have a .259 wOBA (30th), 65 wRC+ (30th), .206 BA (28th), and 27.1% strikeout rate (29th) vs righties. 

Grab the under for the full game and first five innings in this one as Woo and Fedde anchor a low-scoring contest. It’s worth noting that both teams have favorable under trends. The White Sox are 10-3 to the under in their past 13 games and have a 61% home under rate this year. Seattle is 7-2 to the under in its past 9 contests. 

Expert Mariners vs. White Sox Picks

  • Under 7.5 Total Runs (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 7/27