Welcome to another Sunday MLB slate as we pinpoint top baseball picks and predictions to wrap up the weekend. Our top MLB bets today focus on Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates taking on the Tampa Bay Rays. We also look at Max Scherzer’s return for the Texas Rangers hosting the Kansas City Royals. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the weekend baseball as we cash our MLB picks! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 6/23

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, June 23rd!

 

 


 

Rays vs. Pirates Prediction Today, 6/23

Happy Paul Skenes Day! The electric Pittsburgh Pirates rookie takes the mound at home on Sunday afternoon with the Tampa Bay Rays coming to town. Per usual with Skenes’ starts, all eyes will be on this game – so let’s get some action on it, too.

Skenes has been as good as advertised thus far. He boasts a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through his first seven starts. The right-hander’s 2.38 FIP, 2.74 xERA, and 2.14 xFIP are all promising underlying metrics. Skenes’ 34.4% strikeout rate (96th MLB percentile), 31.4% whiff rate (89th), and 4.5% walk rate (91st) are all elite. 

The matchup today is also very favorable for Skenes. The Rays have bottom-tier numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season (.294 wOBA, 94 wRC+, .226 BA). Over the past two weeks, Tampa’s splits against righties aren’t much better (.297 wOBA, 96 wRC+, .212 BA). This is a good spot for Skenes, who’s already handled tougher lineups than this. He’s posted a quality start in 5 of his last 6 starts and should do it again.

While Skenes does his thing, let’s bank on some run support from the Pittsburgh bats. Aaron Civale has a 5.42 ERA and 1.39 WHIP for Tampa this season. He’s allowed 4+ runs in 3 of his last 6 starts, including his last time out vs. Minnesota. The righty also has an ugly 6.75 ERA on the road this year. Although the Pirates have some bad numbers vs. right-handers this season, they’re actually league-average in the split over the past week (.315 wOBA, 103 wRC+). 

It’s not total ideal, but it’s enough to give us confidence in taking the Pirates behind Skenes. There’s also something to be said about Pittsburgh averaging 7.3 runs per game in his outings so far – as it seems the hitters tend to step up behind their new ace. Grab the Pirates for the full game moneyline and the runline for the first five innings. 

Expert Rays vs. Pirates Picks

  • Pirates Moneyline (-154 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Pirates 1st 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Royals vs. Rangers Prediction Today, 6/23

Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers gives us the return of Max Scherzer. The veteran right-hander makes his long-awaited 2024 debut this weekend following offseason back surgery and then a thumb issue. Scherzer is back and it comes against the upstart Royals.

Scherzer made two rehab starts in June and they came with mixed results. He tossed 4 shutout innings in the first outing and then allowed 3 runs over 4.2 innings in the second. It’s hard to tell how he’ll look in his first big-league start this year, but his 13:3 K:BB ratio in those two rehab appearances is encouraging.

The Royals can be a tough lineup at times, but they’ve struggled against right-handed pitching lately. In fact, over the past week vs. righties, Kansas City has the worst offense in the split with a .257 wOBA, 61 wRC+, and .187 BA. This projects as a favorable matchup for Scherzer to make his return – especially at home. He had a 3.09 home ERA last year compared to a 4.31 ERA on the road. 

The other side of this game has Royals starter Alec Marsh against the Rangers offense. Marsh is having an up-and-down season with a 4.37 ERA and a few blowup outings recently. However, this is also a favorable matchup with Texas struggling against righties. Over the past two weeks, the Rangers have a bottom-tier lineup vs. right-handers with a .265 wOBA, 67 wRC+, .594 OPS, and .217 BA. Let’s bank on Marsh finding some of the magic he had earlier this season when he had a 2.72 ERA just a month ago. 

Grab the under in this one with two slumping offenses. Scherzer in his first start back is a tad risky but let’s back the track record. Take the under for the first five innings too. 

Expert Royals vs. Rangers Picks

  • Under 8.5 Total Runs (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/23