Saturday’s MLB slate brings us another full day of baseball as we dive into MLB picks and predictions. Our top MLB bets today focus on the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies for an NLCS rematch series. We also look at the Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros matchup today. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the weekend baseball as we cash our MLB picks! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 6/22

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Saturday, June 22nd!

 

 


 

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction Today, 6/22

This weekend series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies gives us a rematch from last year’s NLCS. Zack Wheeler toes the rubber for Philly while Tommy Henry starts for Arizona. This pitching matchup immediately gives the home squad an edge and we’re leaning right into it.

Wheeler is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 8 runs in Baltimore last time out. As bad as that outing was, expect a bounce-back performance for the Phillies’ ace. Wheeler still boasts a 2.84 ERA and 3.03 xERA despite last weekend’s blowup. He’s also still a serious contender for NL Cy Young with some elite advanced stats: .206 xBA (89th percentile), 32.2% chase rate (84th), 86.3 mph average exit velo (91st), 33.3% hard-hit rate (83rd).

Full disclosure: the Diamondbacks are scorching hot against right-handed pitching lately. They boast a .385 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and .901 OPS vs. righties over the past week. Even so, we’re backing Wheeler to do his thing. He has a 1.71 ERA over 8 home starts this year and should respond well after getting crushed by the Orioles. 

Meanwhile, Wheeler should get plenty of run support. Tommy Henry will make his first start for Arizona since April. He began the year in the rotation, then was demoted to Triple-A, and has since made two relief appearances in June – allowing 7 runs over 6.1 innings. The left-hander has an ugly 6.23 ERA and his advanced metrics aren’t any prettier (6.34 xERA, 5.80 FIP). 

It could be trouble early and often for Henry against this potent Phillies offense. Over the past two weeks, the Phils are hammering lefties with a .383 wOBA, 151 wRC+, .244 ISO, and .887 OPS. For the season, they’re also among the top lineups vs. left-handers (.337 wOBA, 118 wRC+, .765 OPS). It’s hard to imagine Henry holding this offense in check. 

Take the Phillies on the run line and to lead after five innings. Wheeler vs. Henry is a big mismatch and impossible to ignore today. Backing a home team on the RL is always risky, but the Phils are 29-11 at home this season with 22 of those wins by 2+ runs.

Expert Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Picks

  • Phillies -1.5 Runline (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Phillies 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-154 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Orioles vs. Astros Prediction Today, 6/22

At the beginning of the season, a weekend MLB series between the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros would’ve been appointment viewing with two squads vying for the AL pennant. Well, the O’s have done their part while the ‘Stros continue to underperform. Nonetheless, there’s a clear betting angle for Saturday afternoon’s game. 

Baltimore starter Corbin Burnes is among the frontrunners for AL Cy Young with an 8-2 record, 2.14 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been dominanting almost every opponent in his path lately with just 3 earned runs allowed over his past 4 starts combined. Burnes is also on a run of 10 straight quality starts with a 1.85 ERA and 2.97 FIP in this stretch. 

The Astros have been just an average offense against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.312 wOBA, 105 wRC). Though Yordan Alvarez is back for Houston, Kyle Tucker remains out and the rest of the lineup continues to be inconsistent game-to-game. Burnes can limit the Astros with the run he’s on right now. 

Ronel Blanco takes the mound for Houston after tossing 7 no-hit innings last time out. He’s having an impressive season with a 7-2 record, 2.43 ERA, and 0.97 WHIP – arguably just as good or better than Burnes in some areas. Yet, Blanco is a prime fade candidate as he’s overdue for negative regression. The Astros righty has an unsustainable .184 BABIP and worrisome 86.8% strand rate – leading to a 3.95 FIP that’s way higher than his 2.43 ERA. 

Blanco’s 10.1% walk rate (26th MLB percentile) and 8.6% barrel rate (32nd) are both concerning advanced stats too. It could be a shaky start in this tough matchup. The Orioles are the best offense in baseball vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .391 wOBA, 158 wRC+, .270 ISO, and .913 OPS. This Baltimore lineup has hit righties well all season and can get to Blanco. 

Take the Orioles on the moneyline and to lead after five innings. Baltimore is 24-11 on the road this season while Houston is just 19-19 at home. 

Expert Orioles vs. Astros Picks

  • Orioles Moneyline (-145 BetMGM)
  • Orioles 1st 5 Innings ML (-140 BetMGM)

 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/22