With a loaded slate of games Friday, it’s time to check in with the MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets for today!

Thankfully, we are back to our full slate of games and, more importantly, we don’t have a start time until 6:40pm ET which means players are jumping back into their normal routine. The further we get into the 2024 MLB season, the less likely we are to invest in day games. I’ve said it a ton already, but players are creatures of habit and even from a young age, have been conditioned to play at night. Once you slap a random Wednesday or Thursday day game into the mix, they are forced to change their routines and that does affect how we evaluate players, teams and even the betting lines and odds. We get back to normal today.

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today 5/10 

We threw some bets down yesterday which hit in a couple of places, missed in a few spots and pushed in some others. We added a couple of game bets, but again – I like to stay in my comfort zone. If your book doesn’t allow the first-five inning bets, we’ll try to be a little more accommodating, but in the end, we aren’t going to force it. This is about grinding and making money. That’s what we do.

  • Yesterday’ Record: 2-3-2
  • Season Record: 110-88-3
  • Bankroll: +10.37 units

*Each of my top MLB picks will be accompanied by their respective odds.

 

 

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction: Friday, May 10 

Rays righthander Taj Bradley makes his return from the IL and while he tossed 94 pitches in his final tune-up n the minors, you can always expect Kevin Cash to micromanage and keep a watchful eye on his pitch count and the situation. The Yankees have vastly improved their overall plate discipline, fanning less than 20-percent of the time while posting an 11.3-percent walk rate against righties this season. With a .345 wOBA against them as well, you can expect them to be dialed in.

On the other side is Clarke Schmidt and while the Rays have shown some improvements at the plate recently, they still have a 23.1-percent strikeout rate against righties and, overall, the Yankees pitching is stronger than the arms of the White Sox and Mets, the two teams, the Rays have played most recently. The Yankees should come out ahead in this one and Schmidt should shine brightly against Tampa Bay.

Expert Yankees vs. Rays Picks:

 

 

Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction: Friday, May 10

Over his last two starts, Chicago southpaw Garrett Crochet has stifled the competition, limited the Cardinals and Twins to just three runs over 11 innings with 13 strikeouts and no walks. The Guardians have posted a decent wOBA against lefties this season, but they’re striking out 22.6-percent of the time and only drawing walks at a 7.1-percent clip. So long as Crochet doesn’t leave a bunch of mistakes up in the zone, the White Sox should be able to grab an early lead.

With Carlos Carrasco on the bump for the Guardians, I am digging this first-five inning money line even more. He managed to stifle a soft Angels team his last time out, but having allowed 13 earned runs over the two previous starts and the amount of familiarity the White Sox have with Carrasco, I can see them getting to him and chasing him about halfway through. The line on a five-inning total is juiced a little high at 1.5 runs, so we’ll take the value with an extra two innings, though I don’t even think we’ll need them.  

Expert Guardians vs. White Sox Picks:

 

 

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Friday, May 10 

Even loaded up with strong lefty bats, the Phillies have been a team that routinely beats up on southpaws. Sure, they strike out a little too much against them, but they also own the seventh-highest wOBA (.338) and post a solid 10.7-percent walk rate so you know there are runners on-base to unnerve Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers. The Phillies bats have been even more impressive lately, posting a .353 wOBA with the sixth-highest wRC+ over the past seven days.

The match-up for Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez is a fantastic one and we’re getting some decent value on his hits-allowed prop. The Marlins have the third-lowest wOBA (.259) against southpaws this season and a .260 BABIP over the past week means they’re struggling to even put the ball in-play. Suarez should keep them at bay for his time on the mound today. 

Expert Phillies vs. Marlins Picks:

 

 

Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Prediction: Friday, May 10 

I’m going all-in on the Diamondbacks today because we are getting great value due to a misunderstanding as to who Orioles lefty Cole Irvin really is. Yes, he’s gone three-straight starts without allowing an earned run (20 innings), but look at the teams he’s faced – The Reds, Royals and Athletics? Come on. Of those teams, the A’s have the highest wOBA against lefties and that’s siting at just .303 on the season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have the highest wOBA against southpaws (.377) and that comes with a .180 ISO and a .354 BABIP. They’ve crushed lefties all year and haven’t slowed down against them one bit. Irvin, with his career 4.30 ERA, isn’t going to last in this one.

I’m not investing heavily on the Orioles side, even though, I’m a huge fan of the team and what they’ve put together. They could, very easily get to Brandon Pfaadt early or they could only grab a couple of runs. In this game. Pfaadt has thrown three quality starts in his last four outings, so it is possible to carry that momentum into this appearance. Baltimore isn’t getting shut out, though, so even with some potential mist in the air, expect some runs in this game.

Expert Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Picks:

 

 

Best MLB Props for Today: May 10 

This should be enough to get you started, but keep checking in with the Fantasy Alarm Discord as I may have some more props to throw out there.