After back-to-back 2-1 days from Adam Ronis, I’ll step in to end the week with my MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for today, Sunday May 7th. The beauty of this beloved game is also the most infuriating part about it, and that narrative rings true when it comes to betting on it. The better team doesn’t always win, and a bullpen meltdown in one inning can ruin the other eight innings that went your way. When looking at my best MLB bets today, you’ll notice that I’m quite fond of a few teams on the road today. Analyzing MLB trends and streaks is always fun, because of late, you’ll see that the St. Louis Cardinals have been underwhelming, and the Oakland Athletics offense has been above average of late. Without further ado, here are my best bets for Sunday’s Major League Baseball action. 

 

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

Over the last two weeks, the Boston Red Sox have been performing as one of the more elite offensive units in Major League Baseball. Over the last two weeks, they are hitting .316 as a team, which leads the league, and they also lead baseball in OBP (.380), wOBA (.384), and wRC+ (141). Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker has been knocked around the yard in his past few starts, and he has not been great at home this year, surrendering a 7.27 ERA, 173 WHIP, and 2.08 HR/9 through a couple of starts at Citizens Bank Park. Walker has allowed a 6.86 SIERA on the year and this Boston lineup can handle right-handed pitching. With slight winds blowing out during this contest, I love the Red Sox to put up at least five runs in this game, something they have done in each contest of their current eight game win streak.

Pick: Red Sox Team Total OVER 4.5 Runs (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

 

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

This game might get started a bit late due to some rain in the area, but they should be able to play, and Minnesota’s Joe Ryan shouldn’t be impacted in any manner. Minnesota has won five of six games that Ryan has started, and Ryan has a 2.37 ERA through six starts this season. He’s been even better on the road this year, posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP through 25 IP. Ryan has also owned Cleveland through his career, going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in five career starts against the Cleveland ballclub. Ryan has been excellent this season, and the same can’t be said for Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill, who’s 4.73 ERA on the year looks immaculate when compared to his 8.64 ERA at home this season. Quantrill pitches to a ton of contact, and this Minnesota offense is capable of doing damage, given the pop in their lineup. I’m a bit surprised the odds are at -104, given the discrepancy in talent between Ryan and Quantrill. Keep an eye on the weather in this one, but ride Joe Ryan to a first five lead.

Pick: Twins First Five Innings -0.5 Run Line (-104 FanDuel Sportsbook)

 

Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals

Betting on the Athletics!? In this economy!? It might not be as crazy as you think. The Royals offense has been solid of late, but I believe in Mason Miller more so than I do Ryan Yarbrough. The Kansas City southpaw has a 7.40 ERA on the season, and despite his home park being rather pitcher friendly, he’s surrendered an 11.00 ERA and .342 BAA through nine innings of work at Kauffman Stadium. The Athletics have the 12th-highest slugging percentage in baseball over the last two weeks, and if we look at these last two weeks but solely against lefties, we see that the A’s are hitting .274 with a .513 SLG and 133 wRC+ against lefties! During this same two week period, Kansas City’s numbers are better against southpaws than righties, and Miller is coming off his best start of the year where he fired seven shutout innings against a more imposing Seattle lineup. Let’s take the better pitcher and the plus odds in this one.

Pick: Athletics First Five Innings -0.5 Run Line (+106 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

*All bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned

 

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